New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: Democrat 40.0% Republican 32.8%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | October 25, 2008

[notes2005]

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).

During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.

The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.

This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.

[cosmic_me]

I guess the MSM really thinks we are all fools and they can easily feed B.S. with no questions asked. Or, they think by suppressing any questions of true validity they can control the entire outcome of this fiasco of an election.

I am beyond insulted that they think the GOP is stupid enough to fall for this routine. It bothers me when I read even one negative downer post on here giving any power to these polls knowing that the DNC has long made it clear one of their game tactics is to create the illusion of victory with the knowing factor that the media is in their pockets to help the illusion along. They believe this creates a domino type of situation. Is depresses the GOP vote and tempts people to jump on board the winning team as if that's all it would take. They willingly over sample the dems in polls and tell all their sheep hit any and all polls hard. They give links and directions to skew anything.

I'm sick of it. I'm repulsed by what the media and these bogus pollsters have been pulling. They have taken the attitude that this time around they aren't even going to hide it. They figure they failed last time around so this time just lay it all out there non stop. What they have collectively done to Sarah Palin is vomit worthy. Obamatrash would have slithered away crying like a child had he been treated in the same manner.

PUMA and those Operation Chaos registered Dems aren't even mentioned in these skewed polls as a factor in favor of McCain and Palin. They wouldn't dare do that. That chunk is huge in key battleground states and they know it. Lets not even mention that Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck along with all of Mickeys pals won't be voting on the 4th as alleged die hard Dem supporters.

I expected without question that the MSM would try their damndest to shovel their garbage in a pro Bam light but I never thought prior to Palin they would get this dirty. Every day we are being told it's over but any half wit knows if it was truly over why are they so desperate to give us another daily dose of saying it and then feeding us another new set of numbers where over night Obama has gained yet another 2 points.

Common sense and seeing well beyond that media slant it is so obvious there is wide spread support for the GOP ticket. The MSM has tried every thing to depress the GOP base to the point I think many are afraid to even mention they support McPalin. America is being bullied into believing some “faux” support for Bam. Is this just a case of attempting to depress? Try demoralize and humiliate it.

Every morning I wake to read 20 negative things about the GOP ticket. This morning allegedly someone within the GOP camp tells inside bickering with Palin. Then there is that article that just had to point out some Hockey player tripped on the red carpet rolled out for Palin so he couldn't play in the game. Why in the hell that story was even noteworthy is beyond suspect.

All 20 articles are so ridiculously childish it's not even worthy of jr. high secondary gossip that would include calling McPalin doody heads or that Palin Farted in public without saying excuse me so this has some how turned off all Conservative women. For the entire day on CNN they will run a live interview with an “alleged” female former republican who just felt the need to state publicly how disgusted she was that Palin didn't say excuse me in public when she passed gas. Of course she is now voting for Obamatrash because of this.

I am not only praying for McPalin hourly but I prey to God that not one GOP voter is even remotely phased by all this bias garbage and they are just foaming at the mouths waiting to get to the polls. In my guts I know we have the votes but we've got to make sure the message is clear...

DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS!! DO NOT LET THE MEDIA DICTATE THIS ELECTION! WE ARE WINNING AND THEY KNOW IT!

What the media has been a part of should be taken to court for harassment. From Palin to Joe the plumber it has been disgusting. Lying to the American people in an attempt to swing this election is vile.

We've got to vote. No matter what you hear and read. No matter how many exit polls you will hear skewing support in favor of obamatrash just get to the polls and vote. If they thought they had this they wouldn't be over selling Obmatrash.

PLEASE McCain and Palin get the message out in an AD fast. Pay no attention to the polls and the bias media. WE CAN WIN!!!

[goldstategop]

Its not going to happen. Even in the Dems best year, 2006, they had 3+ turnout advantage. They are not going to get 7+ or 8+, that's for sure.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Kevmo]

updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood.
***Bull Shiite. It’s to SHAPE the public mood. If all these polling companies were genuinely serious about generating unbiased, useful information, they’d send in their RAW data into a central collecting source which would compute the results and we could all have access to the data itself. So if we think it should be 35% Republican and 38% Democrat, we’d see what that generates in terms of the raw data.

But these companies don’t do that because their real interest is in shaping the election rather than reporting on it.

[teacherbarbie]

I agree. If Obama isn’t even getting all the dems at 80 percent, and McCain is getting 90 percent. There you go.

[ApplegateRanch]

+7 is patently absurd. It's based on thousands and thousands of fraudulent ACORN registrations

And a few Republican Chaos re-registers to Dem, just to screw things up.

In our case there weren't any local races that needed our primary vote on the Pubbie side, so we switched, and voted for the best (and naturally loser) Dem candidates.

We made that decision before Rush started making noises about it.

[gitmo]

ACORN fake registrations gives the illusion that the Democrat party affiliation has gone up.

Acorn and Operation Chaos.

[FlipWilson]

I suppose it all comes down whether there has been a ground breaking shift in how people identify themselves. Seems to me that everyone has wrapped up their troubles in a glad trash bag and labeled it Republican Republican Republican.

[tj21807]

Nice analysis, but I think you are slightly wrong on your weighting of the Independent voters....realistically I wouldn’t be shocked at all by a 60 Obama / 40 McCain split among Independent voters. Generally Independent voters are “bandwagon” voters and unfortunately the Dems have the advantage this year.

I think McCain has an uphill climb but it is not impossible.

We should know pretty early on election night how this thing is going to go. If Obama’s victories are at the level some of the polling indicate then we are toast. If Obama is not sustaining that level, we will be in for a long night (a good thing) . Any sign that this race is close, and the polls are wrong is VERY BAD for Obama, call it the Bradley effect if you want, but it’s more of a Inexperienced/Socialist effect.

I expect Obama to live up to the polls in the deep blue states (MA, NY, etc.) with McCain barely winning the swing states (OH, FL, etc.) giving Obama a clear advantage in the meaningless popular vote, but McCain winning the electoral vote. Then the lawsuits, riots, and drama really starts....

[bailmeout]

The 2004 election was 37/37 Dem/GOP. Gallup just announced that, according to their polling, 2008 first time voters = 2004. The confirmed count of newly registered voters in battleground states was found to be 1/3 of original estimates.

Rasmussen is ...

[teacherbarbie]

Ras has been saying there were alot more dems since June. What he doesn’t take into account is that alot left the party after Hillary didn’t win.

[goldstategop]

True. And the polling companies NEVER report that Obama's base is in the mid 70s to low 80s range. The fact is Obama is already UNDERPERFORMING. He's dead even in early voting. Maybe slightly ahead but I think truthfully, slightly behind. So where he he going to make up that 6- deficit? Remember, he struggled against Hillary in the Democratic primaries.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Reily]

Ok where is the sourcing that Obama is under performing with his base?

[goldstategop]

All the pollsters are idiots. No one changes party ID every couple of weeks. And this constant overinflation of Dem voters is not based on any real world observation - just suppositions and guesses. Polling has as much credibility as Ouija board forecasting.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Thickman]

From the article:While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.

Subtle? Hilarious!

His sampling is 7.2% bigger dummy sampling than 2004 and 4.2% more than 2006 (when pubbies stayed home).

I have to believe that this race is almost neck and neck.

[goldstategop]

You can look it up in AP's poll or any of the polls out there. Just look up the internals. Gore had 92% in 2000, Kerry had 89% in 2004. The best guess is Obama has 80% of his base. If that's true, he's in trouble.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

Agreed. Obama is not dominating early voting. They're trying to create the impression he has the election in the bag. I don't think he's as popular as pollsters have led people to think.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[stockpirate]

So he polls so low with repubs to skew the polls to favor dems.

IBD poll was on the money in 2004 and they have it as a 2-4 race.

[Reily]

I agree if true!
I just slammed the door in face of the 3rd Obama-freak this week !
Sorry when it comes to this election and the smiley face Obamabots I have all the empathy & charm of House!

[Thickman]

I give Rasmussen credit for being open about his methodology. He’s very straightforward about it. So I wouldn’t say he’s a scumbag. I just think for this election he’s dreadfully wrong.

I agree with you about his openness, but the moment a pollster starts advocating on issues it's like a journalist that is biased - he loses credibility. That is what Scott has done.

[The Citizen Soldier]

Post #61

DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS!! DO NOT LET THE MEDIA DICTATE THIS ELECTION! WE ARE WINNING AND THEY KNOW IT!

Mandatory reading, and re-reading for all FReepers.

I feel your passion. Now let's get out and vote!