Posted on 10/25/2008 5:02:33 AM PDT by HalfFull
WASHINGTON, DC: On presidential election day, November 4, all eyes will be on what exit polls say voters did, and analysts fear they could give a rosier view of support for Democrat Barack Obama than reality.
The combination of the exclusion of early voting, and the greater tendency of young voters--more often Obama supporters--to take part in the surveys, could skew the results of the exit polls, which, taken just as voters leave polling booths, are the closely-watched first indicators of how the election is going.
In a National Journal article in March, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com stressed that overestimation of Obama support was already seen in Democratic primaries earlier in the year.
In 18 of 20 states he reviewed, votes in favour of Obama, who at that time was duelling Hillary Clinton for the party's White House nomination, were overestimated by an average of seven points.
The gap was likely due to the fact that many of Obama's most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated than Clinton's, were more inclined to respond to exit polls.
The same thing could happen on November 4 if Obama voters turn out to be markedly younger than those of his Republican rival John McCain.
According to a recent Gallup poll, 65 percent of voters aged 18-29 plan to vote for Obama, against 31 percent for McCain.
Meanwhile, pollsters themselves tend to be on the younger side.
"One problem (with polls) has been that interviewers tend to be young people, and older voters are less likely to respond to young pollsters--if most of the interviewers this year are again young people, that might lead to some overstatement of the Obama vote," said Herb Weisberg, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.
Weisberg also stressed the unknown factor: ballots cast before November 4--which researchers say could total as much as one-third of the national total.
"Another problem will be that many votes are being cast absentee (early) this year. Exit polls can't pick up these votes," Weisberg said.
"Some pollsters will undoubtedly do phone surveys the weekend before the election to ask people if they've already voted and how they've voted, as a means of trying to capture this effect."
Exit polls have been conducted since 2003 by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News, which uses the Edison media research and Mitofsky International to carry out the post-voting voter questioning across the country.
On November 4, the Edison/Mitofsky team plans to carry out more than 100,000 interviews of voters at more than 1,000 US polling stations.
Concerns about the accuracy of this particular type of polling are nothing new.
In the 2004 presidential election, early exit polls gave a slight advantage to Democrat John Kerry, prompting some premature celebrating by Democrats and hand-wringing by Republicans, only to have George W. Bush eventually win the White House.
"People ought to be very skeptical of leaked (exit poll) results they might see between 5:00 pm Eastern Time (2200 GMT) and when the polls close on November 4," Blumenthal said. (AFP)
“McCain needs to get ahead of the groove and make sure people know not to trust pollsters and media on election day and just get out and vote and wait for the results.”
Agree. Hope there is enough $$ for him to do so.
I was at dinner when the TV ( NBC) called Florida when people were still in line from the central time zone.
Reports are that many Bush supporters hearing this left the polling places.
I’ve got a good idea...don’t do exit polling. What purpose does it really serve other than to give the networks/MSM something to flap their jaws about.
exactly, which is why they wont fall for it again.
The polling against Republicans seemed to be correct in 2006, but I say there'll be some HUGE surprises come November 4, 2008. At all the polling internals, McCain has more support among Republicans (usually around 90-10) than Obama has among Democrats (generally 80-20). The last two elections, registered Republicans and registered Democrats voted 50-50.
Don't forget...B. Hussein has antagonized small business owners, Hillary supporters, pro-life CAtholics (oh hell, ALL pro-lifers), while only firing up black voters (11% of the population).
Since B. Hussein doesn't have a legitimate 3rd party candidate to siphon votes from McCain.
I dislike that the MSM pretty much nominated our Presidential candidate...the only thing that saved the GOP was that talk radio nominated the Democrat Presidential candidate. McCain definitely isn't perfect, but I'd rather have an imperfect Moderate-Conservative who loves his country and wants what's best for us, rather than a stuttering, babbling idiot (when there's no teleprompters around) who's the tool of '60's radicals and 3rd World Marxists, and whose love for America is suspect.
“exactly, which is why they wont fall for it again.”
Of course we are all assuming that the average voter has an attention span of at least 4 years.
Wow, 60%? That certainly would explain a lot of skewed results in the polls. Add that to the biases of the TV and print media outlets and you have the makings of Obama-mania.
” Don’t forget...B. Hussein has antagonized small business owners, Hillary supporters, pro-life CAtholics (oh hell, ALL pro-lifers), while only firing up black voters (11% of the population).
Since B. Hussein doesn’t have a legitimate 3rd party candidate to siphon votes from McCain. “
You make a good case. So much is on the line this year that nothing should be taken for granted. We conservatives need to vote in record numbers, even if we have to crawl to the polls.
How about this as a call to action:
If any FReepers are asked anything by any exit poller(s): here is your retort:
“I voted for my Messiah Obama. Thanks to my ACORN registrations, I’m going to the next presinct to vote for my Messiah Obama again.”
That said...I'd love nothing more than to see an almost-in-tears Obama, giving a concession speech at his big brouhaha "victory party" in Chicago on election night.
Heck, that would be more satisfying I think than the victory itself!
I don’t want to look at the exit polls, but nothing will be able to stop me from checking Drudge and this website obsessively on Election Day.
If the exit polls show a 5 point or less lead for Obama in the battleground, I will feel nervous, but McCain will be in the game. If Ohio, Florida, and Virginia show a McCain lead, Obama will be toast.
“I voted for my Messiah Obama. Thanks to my ACORN registrations, I’m going to the next presinct to vote for my Messiah Obama again.”
ROFL!! BTTT
I can picture it now...Obama, “uuhing” and “aahing” his way through an impromptu concession speech, unprepared (since he was so convinced of a win he never prepared one), a look of shock and disbelief in his eyes, thousands of partygoers jumping off buildings...
I think Hillary won New Hampshire by 2 points not 18.
I just want to see the Michelle Obama reaction shot, she is hardly able to smile when Obama is up in the polls, no way she will be able to contain the fury, then watch two months later when she comes out in an article railing against racism in America.
You mean kind of like the "landslide" the exit pollsters had lined up for Kerry by the afternoon of Election Day 2004? Like that?
Hillary Rodham Clinton 112,404 39.1%
Barack Obama 104,815 36.5%
Most of the polls I’ve seen so far have the undecided voters running at about 10-11%. The numbers for McCain may come in much higher than the MSM have anticipated when McCain does surpass Obama in the home stretch.
McCain/PALIN will win this... I am truly convinced after studying all the data we have. We will win.
LLS
The point was, Obama was supposedly winning BIG there. My dream scenario is seeing McCain win 40 States, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, while seeing Obama’s victory torch rally in Grant Park degenerate into a car-burning party.
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