Posted on 10/21/2008 6:55:16 AM PDT by connell
A shift in the wind
By Christopher Cook
In 'Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll,' Jim Geraghty quotes from his insider friend who goes only by "Obi Wan Kenobi."
"Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll." (And in Gallup, it was within 2 percent.) "That Obama strategist knows how much depends on the whole Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel approach —work with the media to demoralize conservatives, and keep the perception of a juggernaut going. But a day or two of a few bad polls, and that strategy backfires. The conservatives know they've still got a shot at this."
Thomas Sowell has more in Polls and Pols:
Still, it may take more than voter fraud and media spin to put Senator Obama in the White House. Most public opinion polls show Obama ahead, but not usually by decisive margins, and sometimes by a difference within the margin of error.
There has been a history of various polls over the years projecting bigger votes for the Democrats' presidential candidate in October than that candidate actually gets in November.
Some of these polls seem like they are not trying to report facts but to create an impression. One poll has been reported as using a sample consisting of 280 Republicans and 420 Democrats. No wonder Obama leads in a poll like that.
Pollsters have to protect their reputations but they can do that by playing it straight on their last poll before election day, after having created an impression earlier that a landslide for the Democratic candidate was all but a done deal.
The most important part in all of this is that the media and the left need you to be demoralized. They need you to think it's hopeless . . . not only so that they get the presidency, but so that they get a filibuster-proof Senate as well.
One thing is clear from the polls, however. A Democrat should be crushing McCain. Everything screams that this is a Democrat year. And any viable Democrat other than an un-tested, barely vetted radical leftist WOULD be way ahead.
And yet McCain is just a little behind.
What's more, the polls are moving back in his direction at exactly the right time. If you need the momentum swinging back your way, you want it to happen at exactly this moment—two weeks out. And that's precisely what has happened.
I will confess that after the economic freakshow caused a huge hit to McCain's numbers and we started to see him fall behind in all the vital battleground states, I got a little demoralized for a moment. After all, national numbers are one thing, but when the numbers go bad in places like Ohio and Florida—both are must-win for McCain—it's worrisome.
Well, guess what, folks . . .
McCain's back on top in Ohio
and he's back on top in Florida
And that is HUGE news.
Everyone is forwarding stuff around on Ayers and FannieFreddieMaeMac and ACORN. And well we should.
But in a way, those poll numbers are the most important thing to forward right now.
Think of it: You've read these emails, and surely you've noticed that in some, there's touch of resigned desperation, as if to say, "can you believe this guy is this corrupt and he's going to win anyways?".
But that's exactly how the media and the Democrats want you to feel.
No, scratch that. That's how they NEED you to feel.
Their internals are showing something deeply scary to them. Barack Obama is a problematic candidate. They haven't made the sale, and Americans are not known for electing leftists (at least not knowingly). The swing voters are still swinging. The PUMAs (and other Democrats horrified at what they are seeing) are still out there and they're not being polled accurately. And now, the numbers are all moving away from Obama again.
McCain's a come-from-behind kind of candidate. (Remember him out of money, carrying his own luggage in the primary?) He's strong with independents. He's a known quantity, and in the stillness of that voting booth, a lot of people are going to go for the known McCain over the untested and radical Obama.
If nothing major happens, the polls are going to keep swinging McCain's way. The Obama campaign will get nervous, and Obama has a glass jaw when things aren't going his way. On Election Day, McCain will be in fine shape.
But we have to show up. We have to work for it and believe it. If we turn out on the 4th, we will win.
Tell all your friends:
The day that Ohio and Florida turned our way is the day we started on the road to victory.
Update:
The Battleground Poll has McCain down by only one. (If I recall correctly, the Battleground Poll was accurate in 2004 to within less than a point.)
“Some of these polls seem like they are not trying to report facts but to create an impression. One poll has been reported as using a sample consisting of 280 Republicans and 420 Democrats. No wonder Obama leads in a poll like that.”
Must be nice to have the polls in your back pocket. It’s a wonder a Republican ever gets elected. Thank God for the electoral college.
420 Democrats.
ROTFL
I hope it's not 1967 all over again.
There will be rioting whether he wins or loses.....think sports championships.
I have a polling question...If possible would you vote for or against turning out all incumbent 435 Members of the House and 100 Senators and replace them all with new faces?
Right. Obama is getting hit by taxes, socialism, Joe the Plumber, and now Joe the Running Mate. How convenient that now he has to visit his typical white grannie because she’s been sick for a long time.
This is a ploy. I think they are seeing that old white Democrats think Obama perhaps is ‘too foreign’ or what not to be president. In addition, I think they are looking for a way to interrupt the negative wave of attacks on Obama’s plans for this country, because those attacks are working.
This isn’t hard to figure out. They’ll take Obama off the campaign trail, and then will find a reason to whine about McCain saying something while Barack is out with his sick typical white grannie.
McCain needs to stay strong and not fall for this.
McCain/Republicans have failed to make the case that he is a leftist's leftist.
Lets all keep up the pressure to have Obama publicly state and prove he is a US citizen! If he can't sing the tune, get off the stage!
..well done...
bttt
You don’t have to be sad anymore.
I doubt that will happen. Even if it did it would be a small price to pay to avoid a communist in the White House backed by both houses of Congress.
McCain is going to win. There aren’t going to be any riots. At least not if the weather is bad, rioters hate rain sleet and snow.
I will rejoice and be glad for the riots that follow an 0bama loss.
It will certainly be less damage than an 0bama win would cause to our country.
It’s always nice to read something encouraging, but I’m frustrated that the Republicans allowed the fraud issue to fester until the eve of an election. It provided a propaganda weapon for the rats and their media handmaidens.
Obi Wan Kenobi??
I will give them all a whiff of the grape the instant I see innocent lives in danger.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.