Posted on 10/18/2008 6:32:49 AM PDT by hoosiermama
Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)
First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation.
It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on OReilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans.
One of those A-HA! moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested D ballots. Several even winked or smiled knowingly. They were part of Operation Chaos.
Listening to Mary Matelin the other evening explaining that the polls use a percentage of registered voters to determine the percentage of party members to canvas. I imagine in Indiana that number is influenced by the actual ballot requested in the Primary. Is Operation Chaos still doing its thing?
BTW I was polled this week. It occurred to me and I dutifully reported to the poller that several of my D neighbors were supporting Mc Cain. (I suppose according to Murpha we would be considered a racist community)
My questions for fellow freepers: How much influence did the OC movement have on the vote in your state? Is it more influential than the Bradley affect? Rush listeners, which states are you in and how many of them voted heavily for Hillary? Are the potential voters not only enough for McCain to win, but win in a landslide?
If you go and talk to all the dems you know, you find a huge number are not voting or voting McCain. I have never seen this before. He only has 3 dems I know voting for him out of all the dems I know who voted Clinton, Gore and Kerry. He does not have his base in flyover country and is relying on the youth vote, and voter fraud to win. That is if he can make up the votes in his base he lost.
Those that need to rely on the youth vote are called losers.
Let me just say that there is no way Obama is going to win Hillarys 18 million voters. Id guess half of them voted for Hillary because they saw her as the lesser of two evils.
On a side note, while driving through the next town over from me which is heavily dem, there are *very few* Obama/Biden signs. However, in 2000 and 2004, the town was *full* of Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edwards signs. . .
In mine, you don't register with a particular party unless you vote in the party's primary. It only prevents you from voting in ANOTHER party's primary.
Your party affiliation is of no consequence on Election Day. And you are free to vote in another party's primary (but again, not more than one) during the next election cycle.
Does anyone know what Caller ID says when a pollster calls? I never answer anything I don’t recognize. I’m sure many others do the same thing.
-—And yes, Dems are oversampled, but for the simple reason there are more dems than Republicans.
If you know anything about statistical sampling, you would know that your statement is self-contradictory.
“The PUMAs have their own operation chaos going - telling the pollsters they are voting Obama.”
_________________________________________
Yeah. Check out the http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/
My guess is that at least 3-5 million of the Hillary voters will go with McCain over Obama.
Also, as a little anecdotal evidence, I have caller ID on my phone. I’ve been getting calls every day from a Baltimore area code. I never answer, assuming its a telemarketer. Yesterday I finally answered just to see which company. It was a polling company.
I have no proof, but my hunch is that part of the oversampling is due to this...do more conservatives have caller ID then libs? are they less likely to answer and not immediately hang up?
again, no proof. but I think the answer is yes.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Amen.
I think republicans are more likely to ignore those calls because they have better things to do.
Libs love to b*tch and whine - more libs would love to receive that call - more repubs would love to ignore it.
I don’t know I haven’t looked at the internals, and of course, those are different situations. With OStalin, we have many factors to weigh.....oversampling, bradley effect, puma’s etc. If these polls are the same a few days before the election I will give them more credibility (but not much more), right now its all push poll all the time.
In any case, none of us can know for sure if the polls are correct until election day.
I live in New York, and was a registered Democrat for many years. I became a conservative after 9/11, but didn’t feel the need to change my party registration. I actually liked the idea of crossing party lines. Then I moved to another neighborhood two years ago. I sent in a form to the board of elections giving them my change of address and switching my party affiliation from D to R. They sent me a new voting card with my new address, but they didn’t change my party affiliation.
An oversight, or something more sinister?
I suspect most wouldn't do it until after Election Day simply to avoid complicating things. There is no reason for them to switch. OTOH, you would also think that the polling would indicate a greater dissatisfaction with Obama among Dems if Operation Chaos was a factor.
With that said, I think the polls are inaccurate and McCain will win.
I heard a McCain spokesperson on Brian and the Judge this morning and she said their internal polling was much tighter and they fairly easily had 260 EV and it was the remaining 10 they were needing.
I believe McCain will win.
Basing it entirely on the crowds showing up to listen to Govenor Palin, and comparing the small crowds coming to listen to Obama and Biden.
The GOP base is fired up. Prayers are going up. People are talking about the socialist leanings of Obama.
And the media is being trashed EVERYWHERE.
I don’t think people believe the polls. The Dems are just going along, hoping the polls are right. But deep down, I don’t think the Dems believe the media any more than we do!
“That is, they could see themselves kicking back and listening to Johnny Mac’s war stories over a cold one than talking to The Cold One for more than 15 seconds in a social setting.”
An evening with Obama. I wonder what the topics would be?
Global warming? MalcolmX? Jesus was a black man?
Sounds fun.
If that contribution was after the pubbie primaries, then Powell will endorse Mac over bambi. But if it was to advance Mac in the primaries then all bets are off.
It's all a great game show, and its outcome is predicted if not fixed.
The poll-taking and planning is such a refined science these days that the puppet-masters of the State and the media know exactly what they're doing with each news event, each rally and each editorial comment.
When all the electoral votes are added up, somebody(s), somewhere, will say, "exactly".
All this discussion about hanging up on pollsters affecting the result is incorrect. If the poll wants 1000 responses they will keep calling numbers until they get that many in the box. Hanging up means only that YOU’RE opinion will not be included in the poll.
The central issue here is the weighting. If they poll 1000 and get 500 dems and 500 pubs, they will throw out a certain number of the pub opinions until they reach the magic number they assume will be the % of the total vote coming from each party during that election.
This magic number is only a guess, but they base it on information they receive about registration efforts since the last election. In this case they have been swayed by the ACORN people who have been calling the pollsters and telling them their registrations are far ahead of the pubs and that they need to weight the polls that way.
But as we all know those numbers are bunk. But that’s why we see polls including more dem than pub opinions by as much as 12% even though in the 2004 election the dem/pub vote was almost 50/50.
Here in NC, Operation Chaos has been running for 35-40 years.
Prior to allowing independents to vote in primaries, it was necessary to register D in order to influence the outcome.
(the R’s only put up one candidate — and that was determined by the party behind closed doors) Jesse Helms used this to great advantage when we JesseCrats voted for the weakest D candidate, Harvey Gantt, and Jesse creamed him in the GE.
Proud JesseCrat for 33 years!
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