Posted on 10/18/2008 6:32:49 AM PDT by hoosiermama
Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)
First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation.
It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on O’Reilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans.
One of those “”A-HA!” moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested “D” ballots. Several even winked or smiled knowingly. They were part of Operation Chaos.
Listening to Mary Matelin the other evening explaining that the polls use a percentage of registered voters to determine the percentage of party members to canvas. I imagine in Indiana that number is influenced by the actual ballot requested in the Primary. Is Operation Chaos still doing it’s thing?
BTW I was polled this week. It occurred to me and I dutifully reported to the poller that several of my “D” neighbors were supporting Mc Cain. (I suppose according to Murpha we would be considered a “racist” community)
My questions for fellow freepers: How much influence did the OC movement have on the vote in your state? Is it more influential than the Bradley affect? Rush listeners, which states are you in and how many of them voted heavily for Hillary? Are the potential voters not only enough for McCain to win, but win in a landslide?
Are the KY and NC polls showing McConnell and Dole in trouble wrong too?
Colon Bowel?
MCCain is probably ahead. 5 friends of mine who have voted d there whole life are not voting for odumbo and they live in bucks county pa. How many others are out there? Just ask puma
ssssshhhhhhhh we aren’t supposed to tell anyone that the polls are so completely wrong until after the election, or else acorn will have to double up their vote fraud....
The PUMAs have their own operation chaos going - telling the pollsters they are voting Obama.
I believe that C. Powell was an “affirmative action” pick in 1989, wasn’t he?
I have a feeling ALOT of women for Hillary are gonna see this ACORN fraud and think on Nov. 4th they COULD have been voting for Hill if not for bambi and vote for McCain.
You don’t have to switch back to vote. I am sure that many Reps voted in the Dem primaries because the Dem primary was fought tooth and nail in every state. In VA, there is no registration by party. I voted in the Rep primary, but my wife and daughter voted in the Dem primary to vote against Hillary. They will be voting straight GOP in the general election.
It ia also true that the GOP primary finished early, with little excitement. The Democrats when on and on with lots of interest. How many switched registration (not necessarily Limbaugh fans) to participate in the “real” race of Clinton v. Obama?
One way to check for this, would be to see if the later primary states had a higher shift to Democrat registrations from those back in February.
I'm suspecting that many who participated in OC never actually thought this far ahead, nor did they anticipate that professional pollsters would adjust their sampling proportions to reflect apparent registration levels among the participating parties. So, the re-registration involved in OC has now had the effect of obscuring whether or not Obama or McCain is leading according to current opinion.
So we got a lot more Chaos than we expected. I'm not sure that's actually a good thing.
I have no clue about switching because I’ve never, ever done it.
Gee, I wonder who started the Powell rumor? Well I am officially starting a new Powell rumor. Rumor has it that Powell MAY announce his support for McCain tomorrow.
“Yeah, I’m not sure the pollsters are being that methodical about it.”
There was another article floating around here a few days ago about the type of person doing the grunt work - making the calls, asking the questions, for very little money.
They’re mostly young kids.
Young kids tend to be more liberal of course, and can taint the results with their own bias.
Powell did contribute to the McCain campaign—not Obama’s for whatever that is worth.
I am signed up for several online survey groups (Harris Poll, etc.) I have gotten several political surveys lately. As soon as I answer an online survey about which way I am voting (McCain), the survey immediately ends. No further questions. I have a feeling these online surveys are automatically slanted against Republican voters. Not that I am saying they are influencing the Gallup polls or other ones in the news, but I find that very interesting.
Great points, but there are even more GOP-to-Dem switches because of Op Chaos. There are lots of independents who registered Dem, and GOPers that don’t listen much to Rush, but wanted their vote to count. This would especially be true of NEW registered voters.
And I would agree that McCain voters are more likely to hang up on pollsters. Especially after Charles Gibson’s incredibly ignorant comment that “most polls” show Obama ahead by double digits.” (The man is on drugs, I promise you).
and I think that’ll backfire, more people will get out and vote than ever would have before the drive-bys became complicit with ACORN in stealing the election, I think it’s galvanizing ALOT of people to go vote against bambi.
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