[Scotswife]

“Yeah, I’m not sure the pollsters are being that methodical about it.”

There was another article floating around here a few days ago about the type of person doing the grunt work - making the calls, asking the questions, for very little money.

They’re mostly young kids.
Young kids tend to be more liberal of course, and can taint the results with their own bias.

[Harry Wurzbach]

They’re mostly young kids. Young kids tend to be more liberal of course, and can taint the results with their own bias.

Right. I've seen some funky internals in the national polls, like the race being tied between men and Obama far ahead among all women. Or more self-described Republicans defecting to Obama than Democrats defecting to McCain.

I think the pollsters are going to be off because, other than their biases, they don't know how to handle cell phone users. Plus, I would argue that Republicans/conservatives are generally going to be less available to pollsters during the day than Democrats/liberals. We'd rather talk with our families and with our friends than with some random stranger on the phone. But we're old-fashioned like that.

Yes, "youth" operate primarily on cells too. But try as lefty campaigns might, they don't show up.

Yeah, turnout will be higher this year, but I don't see Obama getting a net gain in votes over Kerry's total in '04. And finally, there is my highly scientific observation that most Americans would rather hang with John McCain at a BBQ, bar, restaurant, football game, etc...than Obama. That is, they could see themselves kicking back and listening to Johnny Mac's war stories over a cold one than talking to The Cold One for more than 15 seconds in a social setting.

I think my theory holds with a little backtesting. GWB over Kerry and Gore? Check. Clinton over Dole and GHWB? Check. GHWB over Dukaka? You bet. Reagan over Mondale and Carter? Hells yeah.