Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA)

SurveyUSA ^ | 9/22/08 | SurveyUSA

[tatown]

Obama 51%, McCain 45% LV 38%-Dem, 33%-Rep, 22%-Ind

[Harry Wurzbach]

Sample composition

Dem 38%
GOP 33%
Independent 22%

Not sure where the other 7% fell.

I’m sure the Virginia electorate is more than 33% Republican. Sample looks bogus.

[LS]

Well, what you said is simply not true. In 2006, the top three polls for senate races were SurveyUSA (off by 1.5%), and only missed ONE race out of 49 called; Mason-Dixon had 14 called, (off by 1.4%), and had one wrong; and Rasmussen called eight and got all eight, with a margin of error of 1.4%.

SurveyUSA is extremely reliable, and this is not good news.

[RichardW]

I’m dubious about this and a lot of polls. I’ve followed several states closely on Intrade and Virginia has been in McCain’s column for some time. What’s changed? And Missouri, only wrong one time in a century is 2 to 1 for McCain.

I, of course, have no way of knowing but I suspect many of these polls are unreliable and controlled by Obama supporters and skewed to produce a favorable result. We know for a certainty that Obama and Axlerod will do anything and are behind all of the garbage directed at Palin.

It may work in the long run if enough imbeciles are persuaded that Obama is the wave of the future. Somehow I suspect that most people are not going to be taken in by this bag of wind. I could be wrong but I don’t think so.

[chimera]

I hope it's an outlier. If we lose VA we're dead meat. I don't know where we're going to go to make up that many EVs. I know MI and PA look competitive but in the end I think they'll be heartbreakers. And winning NH and/or NM isn't going to make up the difference. Please, please, VA, put country first...

[Wilder Effect]

FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY Polling!!!

This poll was already discredited by Virginia Politico’s at the Hedgehog Report.

[teletech]

One observation and one question. The meltdown on Wall Street hasn’t helped McCain/Palin. Question: Why is FR C R A W L I N G again??

[cw35]

Uh sure it is. Did the number of blacks double in VA or something.

[bushsupporter30]

The Rep base sat out the election in 2006.
Better years to compare are 2000,2002 and 2004.

[impeachedrapist]

A blast from the past (2004 Survey USA poll on VA, days before the election):

Kerry Too Close to Bush for GOP's Comfort

They called it 51-47 for Bush, three days before the election. Kerry had abandoned the Old Dominion weeks before. Bush won by about 9 points, slightly improving his 8-point margin four years earlier.

[Wilder Effect]

LS, SUSA is okay at best.

This is the same outfit that had McCain up by 20% in NC recently.

Battleground the only pollster that has no bias, unlike SUSA and Gallup, has McCain up +1 today.

[albie]

I’m no expert but I live in Richmond and go to No.Va a lot. I’ve noticed fewer BO stickers than ever. It’s as if people have taken them off of their cars. McCain/Palin attracted 20,000 to Fairfax 2 weeks ago. Michelle BO can’t get to the 1,000 mark in communist Madison, Wisconsin.

Just a few “regular guy” observations coupled with a lot of reading and some common sense tells me these polls are cooked and/or a reflection of flawed polling with weighty Dems over Pubbies etc.

Debates will dictate how this election goes.

[LS]

Not too much an outlier. Here are the last four from RealClearPolitics:

SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6

InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2

National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 48 41 McCain +7

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie

So it looks like the National Journal and SurveyUSA offset, and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.

[jimfree]

Looks like I might be working Virginia and staying closer to home this election.

[RED SOUTH]

Obama is pouring money in VA. It might work.

[DallasBiff]

And if I remeber correctly, you LS when I was lurking on FR, you yourself were predicting that the GOP was going to hold Congress in 2006. So why should i trust your opinion?

Also aren't you a college professor, and may have a vested interest in keeping alive the polling industry.

[Looper]

Under that scenario—McCain picks up Pa. but loses Va., Colo., NM and Iowa—McCain still wins if he keeps the rest of the Bush states. If Obama loses Pa., it’s going to be very difficult for Obama to win the election.

[ReagansRaiders]

Another weekend poll from Survey USA. Hardly surprising numbers. McCain is probably up by between 2 and 5 in Virginia right now and other polls bear that out.

[kabar]

VA is definitely in play. Obama has set up 52 campaign offices throughout the state. McCain will have 10. Absentee balloting begins today. This will be a close race.

[impeachedrapist]

and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.

Which would be consistent with how the campaigns are behaving and spending money. And I'd make that a 2-pt advantage for McCain/Palin, which I expect to increase a bit before November.

Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I'd truly be worried about VA if the GOP were taking it for granted. That's not the case. McCain/Palin just visited there, drawing a huge crowd. They're spending $$$ to advertise in VA, and their national campaign HQ is headquartered in Arlington VA.

[rusureitflies?]

Wasn’t Mondale up by 18%...? be VERY sceptical of ALL polls... a lot of folks lie for the fun of it....and many folks think the media and poll-takers have their own agenda so they say crazy stuff...