Under that scenario—McCain picks up Pa. but loses Va., Colo., NM and Iowa—McCain still wins if he keeps the rest of the Bush states. If Obama loses Pa., it’s going to be very difficult for Obama to win the election.
I forgot to include NV in that scenario. If that goes blue also, then McCain loses even he takes PA. That outcome is highly unlikely though. If McCain manages to take PA then he ought to win VA as well. If the once great commonwealth of VA slips over to the bad guys then it is possible McCain could still take CO and/or NV, in which case he would win assuming he scores an upset win in PA.