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and it's a 1-2 point race in VA.

Which would be consistent with how the campaigns are behaving and spending money. And I'd make that a 2-pt advantage for McCain/Palin, which I expect to increase a bit before November.

Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I'd truly be worried about VA if the GOP were taking it for granted. That's not the case. McCain/Palin just visited there, drawing a huge crowd. They're spending $$$ to advertise in VA, and their national campaign HQ is headquartered in Arlington VA.

I would much rather be defending states like CO and VA. Meanwhile, Barry has to to defend MN, MI, PA and WI. Until this poll, VA had been trending red, I don’t think that one poll is enought to reverse the trend.

Look at it this way. In 2006, a horrible year for the GOP, a former Republican with a strong military background had to go into overtime to defeat George Allen. (Granted George had the incumbency advantage, but Webb had strong name recognition.) But how would such a result translate into a 6-point Obama victory, during a Presidential year? It wouldn't. Factor in the SUSA internals, its immediate previous result with VA Presidential elections, and this poll really isn't worth worrying about.

I have lived in NoVA for 30 years and am active in GOP politics, including being a delegate to this year's state GOP convention. There have been dramatic demographic changes in VA due to migration and immigration, especially in NoVA. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County [the largest county in the state with about 1 million in population], the first time a Dem presidential candidate has done that in 40 years. One-third of the state's population now lives in NoVA.

VA is also about 20% black. It is projected that there will be a record turnout this year. Obama has opened offices in every county and is engaged in a huge registration effort among minorities and on the numerous college campuses throughout the state. This is the kind of ground game that destroyed Hillary in VA.

No amount of happy talk is going to change the political reality in VA. I am sure that Obama's internals gives him a great deal of hope that he can win VA. I am very very worried about VA and you should be too.