Gustav headed for current that fuels big stormsDeep warm water current that fuels nasty gulf hurricanes seems to be next stop for Gustav
I can see the convention coverage already—the MSM are praying for disaster so they can show a split screen of Palin’s acceptance speech with shots of destruction.
Additionally, most of the Refinery Capacity for the US is between Corpus Christi, Texas and Mobile, AL. This may be shut in for about one to two weeks.
There should not be shortages, but there may have to be more refined gasoline going into New York City and Baltimore as well as perhaps Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Evacuations of the Gulf platforms started about Monday/Tuesday this week, and the first storm is not set to hit until Tuesday. However, many platforms can be shut down remotely, which means the rig is still producing even after the crew is evacuated.
Probably some bulls will be running the crude market for a couple of weeks, and then a fallback on prices... Hopefully...
WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100 KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE. THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
I can see it now. Bush will try to be ahead of the game and issue forced evacuations. Then after the hurricane, they will complain that FEMA, under orders from Bush, came in and forced them out of their homes because he is a racsist.
These people are looking for extensions to benefits expected to "expire" in March of next year. I would imagine those Louis Vutton handbags bought with the 2K cards are starting to get a bit bedraggled
I’m sure all you smart FReepers have heard of this weather site for tracking hurricanes/storms...if not, check it out...very cool site...
Station 42056 - Yucatan Basin
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
Not sure how many of noticed this... but, this storm is showing some potential to be extremely damaging....
FIVE of the 16 models on NWS now show this storm STOPPING, and turning southwest.... some say this will occur just off-shore... some say, after it moves inland.
If this storm cozies up to the coast just south of Baton Rouge, and then drifts southwest.. something like 4000 off-shore platforms will be affected (practically ALL of them)... and the damage from wind and flooding could be severe all the way from Baton Rouge to Freeport, or below.
This scenario is certainly not unprecedented... Carla, in ‘62, hit the coast north of Corpus, then stopped, backed up, and came in again further up the coast.
This... looks bad.
CAT 3 already? Wow, that’s quick.
Didn’t look to see if this was posted, but I like this link for watching the weather radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php (You’ll need to scroll over and down.)
I live in Shreveport and all the evacuation shelters were opened here yesterday.
As I read the location of Gustav it has yet to pass over the westernmost end of Cuba. That will slow it down.
As I read the wind probability tables, the closer to the mainland that Gustav gets, the SLOWER its winds become all the way down to Cat I range or so by Tuesday..
What am I reading wrong???
Now CAT 4 Storm with prediction it will be CAT 5 storm.
NHC/NOAA 2 PM DISCUSSION:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141 KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS. GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140 KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1800Z 21.6N 82.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Be advised storm is updgraded to CAT 4 and is expected to reach CAT 5 strength -- per National Hurricane Center forecast special alert 2pm EDT.
Maybe title can be changed since it is in BREAKING NEWS Category...