Posted on 08/30/2008 3:25:36 AM PDT by HAL9000
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
Gustav headed for current that fuels big stormsDeep warm water current that fuels nasty gulf hurricanes seems to be next stop for Gustav
I can see the convention coverage already—the MSM are praying for disaster so they can show a split screen of Palin’s acceptance speech with shots of destruction.
Oh yeah I don’t see this ending well for the GOP.
I just heard on the radio (abc radio) that Nagin is CONSIDERING evacuations. Is this man on DRUGS????
I then looked at the track and it looks like it’s going right
into NO. Who gets the blame now. (I know Bush) Where are the school buses. (Probably still out for repair after the soaking they got in Katrina.
Palin makes me feel good.... Hopefully her story against corruption will make other cities/towns fight back and the need to start in NO.
Our only hope is if people realize the MSM are going too far, and actually think—”You know, Bush isn’t to blame for this, because if any idiot doesn’t evacuate after Katrina...” Palin’s do-it-yourself personality may inspire people.
Additionally, most of the Refinery Capacity for the US is between Corpus Christi, Texas and Mobile, AL. This may be shut in for about one to two weeks.
There should not be shortages, but there may have to be more refined gasoline going into New York City and Baltimore as well as perhaps Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Evacuations of the Gulf platforms started about Monday/Tuesday this week, and the first storm is not set to hit until Tuesday. However, many platforms can be shut down remotely, which means the rig is still producing even after the crew is evacuated.
Probably some bulls will be running the crude market for a couple of weeks, and then a fallback on prices... Hopefully...
WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100 KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE. THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
The only good thing appears that it will hit in more lightly populated area of La.
I can see it now. Bush will try to be ahead of the game and issue forced evacuations. Then after the hurricane, they will complain that FEMA, under orders from Bush, came in and forced them out of their homes because he is a racsist.
110 Knots is about 126 mph.
These people are looking for extensions to benefits expected to "expire" in March of next year. I would imagine those Louis Vutton handbags bought with the 2K cards are starting to get a bit bedraggled
But my Mom (who wouldn't know how to use a computer or cell phone to save her life) watches the MSM and swallows every bit of sewage they hurl. When I try to tell her the TRUTH she tells me that the Internet is evil and wrong.
There are people such as my Mom who do and will continue to believe the garbage that the MSM (or Pravda America as I think of them) spew.
Now is the time to contact your Congressmorons and tell them we do not want to shovel even one more cent of our tax money into this bottomless sinkhole. If people choose to live below sea level, at sea level, at the beach, or in other hazardous locations, then they should be responsible for the consequences. The same should apply to beachfront dwellers in Florida, who typically want the public to restore “their” beaches after a storm. Federal taxpayers should not pay for the restoration of the “city that never should have been built”. The quote is from former New Orleans Mayor Morial during Hurricane Andrew.
I’m sorry but, I’m not real sure why or if ABC says there will be no mandatory evacuations. some mandatory evacuations have already been called in coastal parishes. Voluntary evacuations have been called in others. You have to get them out first before calling mandatory on parishes further inland. There are busses already here in the city (N.O.) and pick up points for all neighborhoods in the city have been announced.The La. National Guard is already in place here is the City as well. I see a completely different response this time. Apparently, what has not changed is the misrepresentaion by national media.
Contraflow starts tomorrow, doesn’t it?
Of note.
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1220073771119040.xml&coll=1
Gun, ammo sales are brisk ahead of storm
Dealers say customers arming to stay and protect property
......Nagin is CONSIDERING evacuations.....
Nagin is not in the picture. The Governor acting in concert with FEMA will make all decisions. Nagin will be totally bypassed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.