Edward Lorenz, Father of Chaos Theory and Butterfly Effect, Dies at 90

MIT News ^ | April 16, 2008 | massachusetts institute of technology

[mikrofon]

Edward Lorenz, an MIT meteorologist who tried to explain why it is so hard to make good weather forecasts and wound up unleashing a scientific revolution called chaos theory, died April 16 of cancer at his home in Cambridge. He was 90.

A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems. In the early 1960s, Lorenz realized that small differences in a dynamic system such as the atmosphere--or a model of the atmosphere--could trigger vast and often unsuspected results.

These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the butterfly effect--a term that grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?"

Lorenz's early insights marked the beginning of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics but virtually every branch of science--biological, physical and social. In meteorology, it led to the conclusion that it may be fundamentally impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

[Gondring]

Yes, it's pure luck that casinos can make money...after all, since they can't predict the spin of the roulette wheel, there's no way they can possibly tell the overall odds!

</sarc>

[Gondring]

Ah... But Al Gore can predict what the weather will be like in fifty years. LOL

Yeah...someone told me today that it was going to be hotter here three months from now than it was three months ago!!! Why, we can't even predict the weather in three days...how can we possibly predict the effects of a variation in how the earth's axis is tilted relative to the sun?!?

</sarc>

In other words, even if you can't tell exactly what the weather will be on a specific date several months out, you can still tell general characteristics that will be experienced.

[Gondring]

“Wrong” is a very imprecise term.

Did they say it was going to be -90 degrees and it was 65?

In other words, they were off by a certain amount. All forecasts have uncertainty, and you’re saying that the precision and accuracy didn’t meet your standards.

[RightWhale]

The butterfly effect is that recent an idea? 1972 seems like current events. We’re losing more giants every day seems like.

[Froufrou]

And El Nino, too. Lord, lay off the beans ping!

[snarks_when_bored]

While sitting on the throne this morning, I was leafing through back issues of the Monthly and noticed a Lorenz-inspired cartoon. Here's a thumbnail link to a scan of it, posted in remembrance of a fine scientist:

(From The American Mathematical Monthly, Volume 100, Number 5 / MAY 1993, page 470.)

[lesser_satan]

I was thinking more of when they say it will be sunny and calm and it turns out to be torrential downpour and 50 mph wind.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks grey_whiskers.

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[SuziQ]

Chaos Ping!

[SuziQ]

Katrina, huh? Must have been some BAD gas!

[Little Bill]

In my experience, with all things being equal, where you have turbulence you will have a failure. There a lot of things in a piping system that can cause turbulence

[Gondring]

Great pic!

[grey_whiskers]

The butterfly effect is that recent an idea? 1972 seems like current events.

I know what you mean...

...but according to the Clintons, Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky are "ancient history", don't you know. (Hey, this *is* FRee Republic. I had to interject politics somewhere.)

Cheers!