Skip to comments.2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
Posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.58 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Arkansas is a doubtful red. It has changed in the last decade.
A Dem governor followed Huckabee. And it has 2 Dem Senators. All but one of the Representatives are in the D column.
With Romney as the Republican nominee, many of the Southern States could be in play.
what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections ?
Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).
Need to start working on Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio big time.
Ohio is the really ugly one. Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio look like the changes from 2004 and of those Ohio is the worst at 27.5% chance for victory.
Thanks for all your years of incompetent public service ex-Governor Taft. You may have killed the party in Ohio.
Intrade is useless as a predictive tool. It is moves in response to published polls, with the exception of the last few hours before a local election.
For instance, Romney and McCain (in Florida) have fluctuated over the last 3 days between 40 and 60. They move every time a poll is released, they’ll probably settle in around 50 / 50 until tommorrow.
IF their is some notable event that makes news, but us too late to show up in the polls - it could move intrade in the final moments, but it’s completely useless as an indicator of November elections.
Very interesting. Thanks for posting.
Do they also think there is a 4.)% chance of snow in Hell?
“Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).”
Forget Ohio. Our previous Rep. govenor did so much damage, it would be hard to imagine Ohioans, especially those in northern Ohio, voting Republican in the presidential election.
Does anyone find it ironic that Iowa (40% probability of voting Republican), New Hampshire (27.5% probability of voting Republican), Michigan (19% probability of voting Republican), and South Carolina (90% probability of voting Republican) have such dominant sway over who the Republican candidate for president is going to be this year? Add to that the fact that all of these events so far have been “open” to independents and Democrats to create havoc and confusion.
What has happened to our nominating process????? Why the h*ll should we care who the people of Iowa or NH or Michigan prefer (especially all the independents and Demos) among the GOP field? No wonder the Huckster and McNasty have done so well and have gained so much influence and momentum.
Something needs to be done about this mess.
These numbers are wild guesses until we have a nominee.
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