Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, January 28, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; presidential; projected; votes
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.58 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:09 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:28 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


3 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:51 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Aeronaut; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; Bogeygolfer; Brandon; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 01/28/2008 7:01:29 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Colorado is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.

Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.

5 posted on 01/28/2008 7:02:00 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Arkansas is a doubtful red. It has changed in the last decade.

A Dem governor followed Huckabee. And it has 2 Dem Senators. All but one of the Representatives are in the D column.


6 posted on 01/28/2008 7:08:46 AM PST by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TomGuy

With Romney as the Republican nominee, many of the Southern States could be in play.


7 posted on 01/28/2008 7:12:29 AM PST by colorcountry (To anger a conservative, lie to him. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections ?


8 posted on 01/28/2008 7:12:34 AM PST by Y2000
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).


9 posted on 01/28/2008 7:13:22 AM PST by steve8714 (Don't sacrifice the important for the urgent.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Need to start working on Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio big time.


10 posted on 01/28/2008 7:14:02 AM PST by longhorn too
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Y2000
what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections?

2004 Electoral Vote Projection History Links

11 posted on 01/28/2008 7:15:38 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Well then, we had better elect a good candidate and work hard to get him elected or “she” might get elected!!!! Of course, I’m not so sure “she” will be the one running.
12 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:00 AM PST by mtnwmn (mtnwmn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
DC has a 3.7% chance of a Republican winning? Not even if Hillary were to eat a baby on stage.

Ohio is the really ugly one. Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio look like the changes from 2004 and of those Ohio is the worst at 27.5% chance for victory.

Thanks for all your years of incompetent public service ex-Governor Taft. You may have killed the party in Ohio.

13 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:38 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Rattenschadenfreude: joy at a Democrat's pain, especially Hillary's pain caused by Obama.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Intrade is useless as a predictive tool. It is moves in response to published polls, with the exception of the last few hours before a local election.

For instance, Romney and McCain (in Florida) have fluctuated over the last 3 days between 40 and 60. They move every time a poll is released, they’ll probably settle in around 50 / 50 until tommorrow.

IF their is some notable event that makes news, but us too late to show up in the polls - it could move intrade in the final moments, but it’s completely useless as an indicator of November elections.


14 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:58 AM PST by crescen7 (game on)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.


15 posted on 01/28/2008 7:17:45 AM PST by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Someone really thinks there is a 3.7% chance a Republican will win the District of Columbia??!!

Do they also think there is a 4.)% chance of snow in Hell?

16 posted on 01/28/2008 7:20:36 AM PST by chs68
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: steve8714

“Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).”

Forget Ohio. Our previous Rep. govenor did so much damage, it would be hard to imagine Ohioans, especially those in northern Ohio, voting Republican in the presidential election.


17 posted on 01/28/2008 7:25:36 AM PST by brownsfan (America has "jumped the shark")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

Does anyone find it ironic that Iowa (40% probability of voting Republican), New Hampshire (27.5% probability of voting Republican), Michigan (19% probability of voting Republican), and South Carolina (90% probability of voting Republican) have such dominant sway over who the Republican candidate for president is going to be this year? Add to that the fact that all of these events so far have been “open” to independents and Democrats to create havoc and confusion.

What has happened to our nominating process????? Why the h*ll should we care who the people of Iowa or NH or Michigan prefer (especially all the independents and Demos) among the GOP field? No wonder the Huckster and McNasty have done so well and have gained so much influence and momentum.

Something needs to be done about this mess.


18 posted on 01/28/2008 7:34:28 AM PST by ReleaseTheHounds ("You ask, 'What is our aim?' I can answer in one word: VICTORY - victory - at all costs...")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon

These numbers are wild guesses until we have a nominee.


19 posted on 01/28/2008 7:39:44 AM PST by freespirited (Still a proud member of the Stupid Party. It beats the Evil Party any day of the week.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Momaw Nadon
Just last month the Intrade market predicted Obama in South Carolina with a 20% chance of winning. Obama won with 55% of the vote. Intrade seems like an unreliable predictor. Maybe some politicians and their allies look at this as another media battle ground. Buy a victory prediction and hope for a self fulfilling prophesy.

20 posted on 01/28/2008 8:10:06 AM PST by ricks_place
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson