Posted on 01/19/2008 6:31:49 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
I started a thread on Who will Drop Out When where I predicted who would win place and show in each primary up to FL. On this key primary weekend, I thought I'd review my results and make new predictions. I'll leave the old polls in place to show far off they can be.
I was partially right and partially wrong. The amazing thing is, no major candidate has dropped out yet. Rudy is in the most trouble of all of them, although in terms of funding, Huckabee has the least.
The old polls and final results are from Real Clear Politics. Old poll: IA: 12/14 - 12/27
Huckabee Romney McCain Thompson Giuliani Paul Spread 29.0 26.0 11.5 9.3 8.3 5.5 Huckabee +3.0strategic Vision (R) 12/26 - 12/27
Huckabee Romney Thompson 29 27 14 15 4 4
My prediction
Looks like Thompson will sneak into third. Huck or Romney will win. I bet on Romney, who has more "boots on the ground".
Final results:
Huckabee Romney McCain Thompson Paul Giuliani 34.3 25.3 13.1 13.4 10.0 3.5
Result: Huckabee had more support than I expected. He still does. His support makes me wonder about the intelligence of my fellow evangelicals.
Old poll: NH: 12/16 - 12/26
Romney McCain Giuliani Huckabee Paul Thompson 30.6 25.0 14.2 10.6 6.4 3.6
My prediction: Thompson will only get fifth, I think. But Huck will probably get only fourth. Romney will probably win, getting a boost from IA.
Final Results - McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul Thompson 37.0 31.5 11.2 8.5 7.7 1.2
Result: Wrong, wrong. McCain won, followed by Mitt. Fred got sixth, behind Paul. I didn't account for Demos voting as independents.
Old Poll: MI: RCP Average 11/30 - 12/19 Romney Huckabee McCain Giuliani Thompson Paul 19.8 18.8 13.0 12.5 6.5 4.3
Prediction: Romney will probably win. Huck may be fading by this point. McCain may get a boost from NH. Giuliani may be fading. We'll see if Fred's campaign in MI will help. He should get at least 4th, maybe third if Huck fades.
Final Results: Romney McCain Huckabee Paul Thompson Giuliani 38.9 29.7 16.1 6.3 3.7 2.8 Romney +9.2
My best prediction yet--Romney won, McCain got a boost, and Huckabee and Rudy faded.
Old Poll: NV: RCP Average 11/16 - 12/06 Giuliani Romney Huckabee Thompson McCain Paul 23.7 23.7 15.3 9.7 7.3 5.0 Tie
Old prediction: Romney will probably win. Thompson should overtake Huck for third. If Rudy fades, Fred may get 2nd.
Latest poll: Romney McCain Huckabee Giuliani Thompson Paul 25.7 20.7 12.3 11.7 10.7 7.3
Latest prediction: Fred still has a chance for 3rd. I'm amazed people are still voting for McCain. This is primary is closed--only republicans. I predict Romney, McCain, Fred, Huck, and Rudy
Old poll: SC: 12/09 - 12/18 Huckabee Romney Thompson McCain Giuliani Paul 25.8 19.3 13.5 13.0 12.8 6.3
Old prediction: The overall strategy is to do well in IA, survive until SC and win there. The Huck boomlet will fade and Fred ought to pick up those voters. He should also pick up Rudy voters, and eventually McCain voters. That should be enough to defeat Romney for the nomination.
An ideal scenario for Fred would be for Huck to fade before January 3rd and for him to have a strong 2nd in IA--or even win. Then have all the Huck voters to abandon Huck for Fred. But I wouldn't bet on this.
New poll: McCain Huckabee Romney Thompson Paul Giuliani 26.9 25.9 14.7 14.6 4.4 3.4
New prediction: I was smart not to place any bets! I'm incredulous McCain is doing as well as he is here. I will predict Huck, McCain, Fred, Mitt, Rudy, and Paul. If I'm right, this will be a big blow to Fred's campaign. His only hope is that a lot of McCain and Huck voters change at the last minute to him and the undecideds (10%) break for him and he wins. That could happen. But I won't bet on it.
It's pretty clear no one is going to drop out until after Super Tuesday--so my original premise was wrong.
Who will be the next to drop out? Based on funding, it should be Hunter, and then Huck, and then McCain. Fred has more funds than any of these. Hunter's people should go to Fred. Huck's people will probably go to Fred before they go to anyone else. I thought if McCain drops out, he'd recommend Fred. I'm not sure about that, and even so, it seems more likely his people would go to Rudy.
If this happens, then we have a three man race: Rudy, Mitt, and Fred, probably going to the convention. This represents the left, middle, and right sides of the Republican party.
At the convention, how will these candidates' delegates move?
Rudy - may move to Mitt or Fred Mitt - may move to Fred, not likely to move to Rudy. Fred - may move to Mitt, will not move to Rudy
So Rudy gets eliminated at the convention and the decision comes down to Mitt and Fred. May the best man win!
I'm a Fred supporter as well, but if he is still running like this when the race gets to my state, I'm going to have to look at going with strategic voting.
Me: “No doubt my predictions are influenced by being a Fred supporter!”
“I’m a Fred supporter as well, but if he is still running like this when the race gets to my state, I’m going to have to look at going with strategic voting.”
My backup candidate is Mitt, if Fred doesn’t make. I’m sure Mitt is a good manager—I’m just not sure if he really believes what he is currently saying.
Here’s a snapshot from Intrade for January and February dropout contracts. Thompson leads the pack in both cases, with 70.1% for January and 86.2% for February.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 71.0 84.9 70.1 289 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 1.0 23.9 1.0 71 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 7.4 20.0 10.0 76 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 15.9 18.9 247 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 10.0 13.9 10.1 64 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 5.0 5.5 105 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 2.5 10.0 6.2 351 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade 0.5 9.9 4.9 66 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M Trade - 0.1 0.1 11 0
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DROPOUT.FEB08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 90.0 94.0 86.2 15 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 90.0 77.5 60 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 65.0 85.0 68.0 40 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 75.1 83.9 79.0 36 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade - 59.9 57.5 187 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 40.0 25.0 42 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 10.0 34.9 22.4 71 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 6.1 25.0 18.0 211 0
DROPOUT.FEB08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008 M Trade 5.0 30.0 15.0 22 0
Interesting. I would think Huck would be more likely to drop than Fred, since he has less money. Same for McCain.
I still say if either Huck or McCain tanks, that’ll help Fred—he just has to outlast them.
Once Fred drops, Hunter will pick up the conservative support.
If Huckabee fizzles, his followers will be looking for another prolife evangelical to fill the void. Hunter fits that bill, no one else in the race is evangelical.
The GOP doesn’t get it. They need to let this faction find a home. The amount of invective aimed at evangelicals is surprising, but then everyone wants their votes.
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
Prolife evangelicals will be very comfortable in Hunter’s camp, since he’s a prolife evangelical staunch conservative.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.