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The Coming Oil Crash: Why Oil Prices Will Drop
Portfolio | January 2008 | John Cassidy

Posted on 12/31/2007 8:57:38 AM PST by Clemenza

http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2007/12/17/Why-Oil-Prices-Will-Drop


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Cuba; Editorial; Russia
KEYWORDS: cuba; energy; fracking; garyshilling; iran; keystonexl; lebanon; nigeria; oil; opec; prediction; predictions; predictionthread; ruble; russia; saudiarabia; sudan; venezuela
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To: dangerdoc
We can’t grow enough corn or even biomass to power our industry as it sits.

The major push to develop alternative sources in the USA began in 1948 when the FedGov nearly allocated $10 billion to begin oil from coal processes, but that effort died when the flood of Middle East oil hit the market.

61 posted on 12/31/2007 9:58:59 AM PST by RightWhale (Dean Koonz is good, but my favorite authors are Dun and Bradstreet)
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To: PGalt

I agree. bttt

Apparently Mrs. “RAT personified” does, too.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1946374/posts


62 posted on 12/31/2007 10:01:27 AM PST by Matchett-PI (Algore - there's not a more priggish, sanctimonious moral scold of a church lady anywhere.)
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To: Clemenza

We do, but very little.

The veracity of the point in the article that the Sheik made in the 70’s was more right than anyone at that time could have predicted. Almost NOBODY wants an oil-fired electrical plant, none are planned, and the ones that still exist are being phased slowly out.

Nuclear is coming back as the green alternative AND as an answer to growing demand for potable water supply, since the cost of colocating a desalination plant with a nuclear plant is very little comparitively.

In fact, this latest idiocy with oil is going to complete Sheik Yamani’s prediction - all of the car companies, especially the Japanese ones, have committed to hybrid technologies.

There are even companies coming up with ways of building cars that come with up to three battery that can be easily interchanged in an average homeowners garage by the average housewife/househusband. One bank operates, one on charge, and one in ready reserve.

If your operating bank is depleted, you can pull into any gas station and they will swap out your bank for a charged one and a very, very small core/charge fee.

The cars will still have gasoline tanks, but they’ll be smaller and used only as a tweener between bank changes.

And the greenies, well, they won’t ever be happy until the economy crashes, since no matter how you play it, there’s an environmental issue. If you move off of hydrocarbons then you shift to a reliance on batteries, and eventually you have landfill/disposal issues.

This last bout of speculation will be looked on as the last push we needed to move away from an all-petroleum economy. The first push was the gas lines in the 70’s and the last push was 9/11.

I also think that 20 years from now, right here on FR or the equivalent, we’ll be posting the cover from the defunct TIME magazine trumpeting global warming, and how ridiculous it was in the same way we’ve been posting the ridiculous ‘global cooling’ cover that ran back in the 70’s.


63 posted on 12/31/2007 10:02:35 AM PST by RinaseaofDs
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To: Clemenza

bttt


64 posted on 12/31/2007 10:05:01 AM PST by BlabItGrabIt (Crude Oil Doubling Prosperous Housing Market Tanking = DIMS)
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saudi oil dollars euros site:freerepublic.com
Google

65 posted on 12/31/2007 10:05:32 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________Profile updated Sunday, December 30, 2007)
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Saudi minister warns of dollar collapse (Threat?)
The Business | 17 Nov 07 | None
Posted on 11/17/2007 6:16:53 AM EST by SkyPilot
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1927118/posts


66 posted on 12/31/2007 10:05:59 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________Profile updated Sunday, December 30, 2007)
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To: Grampa Dave; SunkenCiv

Thanks. I forgot how to do a link. (Mr. Mencia returns: Dee dee Deee!).


67 posted on 12/31/2007 10:10:21 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Dubh_Ghlase
I saw the author of Energy Victory on C-SPAN. He proposes that the feds mandate flex-fuel cars and let the drivers buy what they want, methanol, ethanol, gasoline etc. He says that agriculture and biomass based could be sold for less than $2.60 per gallon. His biggest goal is to free us from giving money to our enemies, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

He talked to Mosbacher in the WH a few years ago and was told "We don't do mandates." I guess they can mandate mileage and safety, but not something which would cost $100 per car and free of us from dependency.

He cited the Saudi influence in DC starting with James Baker's law firm which represented Saudi Arabia against law suits from the 9-11 families.

68 posted on 12/31/2007 10:11:01 AM PST by purpleraine
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To: am452
Oil companies have seen we will pay $3.00 per gallon without much whimpering. It will never be below $2.60-2.75 or so per gallon again unless some new fuel source is invented.

This is exactly what people said at the height of the last oil crisis. I was there, finishing up my degree in geologocial sciences as fast as I could. Then, oil prices plunged, just as they will again ( because all natural resources follow the same trends), geology degrees were worth nothing, and gas prices stayed near record low levels for the next ten years, nearly whiping out the domestic oil industry.

Anyone who thinks it won't happen again just isn't old enough.

69 posted on 12/31/2007 10:17:08 AM PST by Red Boots
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To: samtheman

“A President John (tax ‘em, sue ‘em, confiscate ‘em) Edwards would put a stop to this travesty in short order. Imagine the perversity! A private company making all that money and using it for re-investment purposes! When there are so many Great New Government Projects that we could fund, if we just confiscate all corporate money!”

Hillary was specific about confiscating oil company profits:

Hillary’s Oil Industry Threat: ‘I Want to Take Those Profits’

http://newsbusters.org/node/10580


70 posted on 12/31/2007 10:21:47 AM PST by preacher (A government which robs from Peter to pay Paul will always have the support of Paul.)
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To: Red Boots

I always thought that a geo degree would be my ticket to an Indian Jonesesque life exploring the farthest reaches of the world for petrol. I took a history degree instead (undergrad), and don’t regret it.


71 posted on 12/31/2007 10:22:09 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Coldwater Creek

The reason food prices have risen isn’t biofuels, it’s because of the increase in fuel costs, iow, OPEC.


72 posted on 12/31/2007 10:22:26 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________Profile updated Sunday, December 30, 2007)
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To: SunkenCiv

Too much blame, emphasis, and attention on the biofuels. Plain old refined rock oil is still 99% of the industry.


73 posted on 12/31/2007 10:24:54 AM PST by RightWhale (Dean Koonz is good, but my favorite authors are Dun and Bradstreet)
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To: FreedomPoster

More good stats here.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/tablees1a.html


74 posted on 12/31/2007 10:26:52 AM PST by RockyMtnMan
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To: SunkenCiv

Diversion of corn from the food supply to ethanol most definitely has an effect on food prices. Higher fuel costs is also a component of that.


75 posted on 12/31/2007 10:28:27 AM PST by rottndog (And yet another year races inexorably to it's end, only to fall into eternity like so many Lemmings.)
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To: preacher

You’re right. Of course. What democrap socialist traitor DOESN’T want to wreck capitalism by taxing all private income at confiscatory levels?

There are none.

On this issue Hillary, Edwards, Obama... they’re all the same.

Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.
Tax.


76 posted on 12/31/2007 10:29:34 AM PST by samtheman
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To: SunkenCiv

Diversion of corn from the food supply to ethanol most definitely has an effect on food prices. Higher fuel costs is also a component of that.


77 posted on 12/31/2007 10:30:01 AM PST by rottndog (And yet another year races inexorably to it's end, only to fall into eternity like so many Lemmings.)
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To: AmericaUnited
Story after story after story of alternative energy sources. And most of them are real, not pie-in-the-sky fiction. they will all start hitting within the next few years.

The company I work for is heavily involved in R&D with several of the world's largest chemical and oil companies... there ARE plenty of known ways to produce energy at prices that are equivalent to the $40-60 per barrel range. The biggest problem now is, fear. Investors are AFRAID of what this article suggests. And, rightly so... because the same price cycle has already occurred three times in the past 40 years.

The question now is... Is it different now? Because of the rapidly growing economies of China, India, and several others.... If I REALLY knew the answer to that, I believe I could become wealthy...

I've said before... I think the BEST thing Congress could do now is.. guarantee a $50 or $60 FLOOR on oil imports by statute.. with tariffs to kick in if the market drops below that floor. Wouldn't that spur investment??

78 posted on 12/31/2007 10:32:31 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim
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To: rottndog
Diversion of corn from the food supply

Such diversion is nonexistent. Note that other grain products have also risen in cost. The cause is transportation cost, pure and simple.

79 posted on 12/31/2007 10:33:28 AM PST by RightWhale (Dean Koonz is good, but my favorite authors are Dun and Bradstreet)
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To: Moonman62

Oil prices are high because oil is traded internationally in U.S. dollars and the U.S. dollar is very weak compared to other currencies. It’s really that simple.


80 posted on 12/31/2007 10:35:10 AM PST by Alberta's Child (I'm out on the outskirts of nowhere . . . with ghosts on my trail, chasing me there.)
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