Posted on 12/18/2007 3:49:49 PM PST by americanophile
If making predictions for the unsettled Democrat race is difficult, making predictions for the Republican race is near impossible. Nevertheless, we’ll take our chances, invoking all the appropriate disclaimers.
The candidate of the moment is former Arkansas Mike Huckabee - an affable, quick-witted southerner who has performed well in debates and convinced many rank and file voters that he’s the closest thing to a ”tell it like it is” Reaganesque conservative. While Huckabee has proven himself to be a media star, GOPublius believes that Huckabee is in fact a shooting star, and that his moment of glory is almost through. Huckabee is now coming under serious media scrutiny, has little in his campaign coffers, an anemic political organization (despite the hiring of Ed Rollins), and is regarded by many in the GOP establishment as “the Republican Jimmy Carter.”
Though Fred Thompson entered amidst the high hopes of many conservatives, his entry to the race proved to little, too late. Though he has improved over time, his initial public performances were unimpressive, his organization shaky, and his fundraising less impressive than billed. Thompson it seems waited too long, and underwhelmed the majority of Republicans when he finally arrived.
GOP voters still busily attempting to ferret out the real Reagan will soon come to learn that Ronald Reagan is long gone, and that 2008, and the future of the Republic, are staring them in the face.
As the specter of another Clinton presidency, or worse (if that’s possible), edges closer to reality, voters will begin to get more serious, to examine their choices based on electability, and make decisions about who can best defeat the likely Democrat opponent. The reality is that for all the horse racing there are only three credible and viable Republican candidates - Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Firstly John McCain. Many Republicans will no doubt scoff at the idea that John McCain could manage to get within a stone’s throw of the nomination. Nevertheless, McCain remains enormously popular with moderate Republicans and independents, and could even expect to pick up some Democratic support. This is particularly true given McCain’s stated desire to appoint Connecticut Senator, former Democratic vice presidential candidate, and recent endorsee Joe Lieberman to his cabinet. McCain’s tortoise campaign has moved on despite the odds, his numbers in New Hampshire are respectable, and his name recognition high. Even amongst those who disagree with McCain on specific areas of policy, there is n underlying acknowledgement that McCain is the adult in the race, and the one candidate best equipped to serve as commander-in-chief.
Nevertheless, McCain at 71, carries so much baggage with conservative voters that clenching the nomination would be an extraordinary feat. His attempted brokering of the “comprehensive” immigration bill was merely the last in a string of positions that seem all but crafted to irritate the very base that McCain would need to win the nomination. McCain might make a healthy showing in New Hampshire, but with at least two other viable and well-funded contenders at his heels, it’s likely to be all downhill from there.
Rudy Giuliani, once thought to be the titan of the GOP field has begun to lose his luster. His liberal social views and checkered personal life have long made him anathema to many conservatives, and recent revelations about his foreign business dealings, mob death threats, and questionable appointments and actions as mayor of New York, have added to the perception that Giuliani is just a bit greasy for the GOP. Still, many national security voters are attracted to Giuliani’s toughness, and fiscal conservatives like his impressive results as mayor. Nearly all Republicans concede that the scrappy New Yorker may be temperamentally best-suited to ”take on” Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, Giuliani continues to sink in the polls, and the New York mayor seems stuck with a campaign in neutral, and banking on a later surge. By his own campaign’s design, and his limited appeal to social conservatives, Giuliani’s fate it seems, is dependant upon the performance of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
For all the displeasure expressed about Romney’s apparent flip flopping and his Mormon faith, the self-funding, highly organized Romney campaign has managed to remain viable and competitive and may provide Romney with early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. What Romney lacks in conservative zeal and political authenticity, he partially makes up for with articulateness, goody-goody wholesomeness, and businesslike organization. He looks presidential too. Still, it remains to be seen whether his faith and the sneaking suspicion of many conservatives that he’s not much of a conservative will derail his early gains as the primaries head south.
Though Rudy Giuliani remains the most formidable national Republican candidate according to polls, GOPublius feels that he is ultimately unlikely to navigate the treacherous waters of the conservative GOP primary given the “anybody but Giuliani” sentiment so prevalent amongst the grassroots, the potential for momentum to build for one of his rivals in the early primaries, and his own sinking poll numbers in key states like Florida. Moreover, believing that voters will recognize Huckabee’s complete vulnerability in a general election, and an increasingly spotty record of conservative governance, Huckabee will flame out after Iowa, if not before. Despite conventional wisdom, even an early Huckabee win may not harm Romney. Rather, the prospect of a surging Huckabee may scare New Hampshire voters into Romney’s waiting arms, and only encourage more support in the serendipitously scheduled Michigan primary on January 15. Romney’s father, George Romney (also a Mormon) served as Chairman of Detroit’s American Motors Corporation before being elected as Michigan’s 43rd governor.
Romney has one more substantial arrow in his quiver - economic worries. As more gloomy and questionable economic forecasts pile-up, voter concern over the state of the economy rises. Of all the Republican candidates, the famously successful businessman Romney is uniquely equipped to deal with economic crisis and may convince voters that in a time of economic uncertainty, fiscal mismanagement, a weak dollar, and increased global competition, what America needs is a savvy CEO president. Indeed, Romney would be wise to remember that the foreign policy campaign of George H.W. Bush missed the growing economic concerns of voters in 1992 and allowed the economic mantle to be taken up by both Ross Perot and Bill Clinton. Romney would be wise to take a page from both Clinton’s and Perot’s playbooks by feeling voters “pain” about the economy and demonstrating (perhaps with a handy business-style chart or two), how to get the U.S. back on track.
Assuming for a moment that there is no messy, anything-goes convention floor fight, the last man standing it would seem will be the smooth-talking, self-funding Romney. His early victories in key states will lead to a general acceptance of his faults, a “so-what” attitude about his faith, and will propel him to a (perhaps unenthusiastic) nomination by the Republican Party.
Looking even further into the crystal ball, one can only venture to guess at who will be Romney’s running mate should he in fact win the nomination. It’s clear however that should either Romney or Giuliani win the nomination, both will almost certainly seek a southern conservative as a running mate, which should help to balance their respective reputations as less-than-conservative northeasterners. The ideal candidate would be a popular big-state southern social conservative with foreign policy or military command experience. Seeing none, we move to more conventional choices.
While the name Huckabee comes to everyone’s mind, it is probably likely that Huckabee will be far too damaged by the present primary fight to warrant a spot on the national ticket, far to divisive a figure for the general election, and would be a strange choice for Mitt Romney given their present war of words. However, Fred Thompson might be an attractive choice. Though he has little foreign policy experience, the likeable, tough-talking southerner certainly looks the part, and excites southern conservatives, though his criticism of Romney may make for an awkward pairing. Nevertheless, Thompson’s presence on the ticket could help motivate an otherwise unenthusiastic base.
Some other popular names include Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chairman, Haley Barbour, widely regarded as a solid southern conservative and the standout “hero” of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is known as a social conservative and has been critical of George W. Bush’s fiscal indiscipline. Other candidates include Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, and the popular Florida governor, Charlie Crist. Though Republicans may be criticized for sticking to the tried and true white male ticket, the GOP has few credible candidates that are either black, Hispanic, or female, and the addition of moderates such as Florida Senator Mel Martinez, Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle, or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin are likely to be unenthusiastically received by the base, and would add little to the national ticket besides color or gender.
With all these factors in mind, and recognizing the folly of any such attempt, our best present guess for the 2008 Republican national ticket is Mitt Romney and Haley Barbour.
Let the naysaying begin.
Nay.
Failure to communicate?
Unsettled? Hillary still has a large lead in every poll I’ve seen.
We should have a restrospect on all these prognosticators after the dust has settled.
Go back and look at past predictions of such things, nobody knews the future, but they sure wanted people to think they did!
Particularly in the MSM!
This article confuses liberal delusion with reality.
Rudy, McCain, and Romney are not the only candidates...they are the most liberal, but not the only ones. Only Romney of these three I could support (and barely) if they were the GOP nominee
In short, it looks like a Romney/Thompson ticket is predicted here. Sounds like a formidable ticket to me—I wouldn’t mind if the prediction was correct.
Well, actually if you keep reading it lists Romney/Thompson as a potential alternative, but predicts a Romney/Haley Barbour ticket.
I wouldn’t mind either, it sounds like a good prediction.
Anyone but Giuliani or Paul!!!
“The reality is that for all the horse racing there are only three credible and viable Republican candidates - Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain.”
These are the only CREDIBLE and VIABLE candidates. Discussing the others would be a waste of time. I’m glad to see some narrowing of the field. Although I still see the field also including Huckabee and maybe Thompson, I’m happy to see us finally getting serious about VIABLE candidates. Time for the others to gracefully bow out and hope for a VP offer.
From what I've seen of other polled states and at Intrade and TradeSports, Hillery is in a very strong positions despites recent depictions of doom for her campaign. In addition she's sitting on a mountain of money and a well establish infrastructure and vote-fraud squad.
Let's pray for her to lose Iowa and then for a domino effect anyways. Knocking her out in the primaries would be only slightly less sweet than watching her outrage at being defeating by a black man who was at best a long-shot from the outset.
Romney/Thompson
Romney/Haley Barbour
Interesting match ups!
Fine with Me, Lets Roll
Jim DeMint is one of Romney’s closest advisors. A popular conservative, and successful businessman, with unassailable character, I think he would be the ideal running mate.
I don’t care terribly much for it. However It is probably the best available combination. I would rather the choice come down to Hunter, Tancredo, or Thompson.
I wish someone ran a website cataloging all these predictions, from the weekly McGlaughlin Group prognosticators to polls and articles like this. Then we could see just how poorly a job Eleanor Clift and that bunch do at this.
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