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Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?
www.physorg.com ^ | 12/17/2007 | by Dr. Tony Phillips, Science@NASA

Posted on 12/18/2007 5:40:18 AM PST by Red Badger

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.

It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?

It could be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; catastrophism; energy; globalwarming; gw; space; sun
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To: Red Badger

:’) Appropriately seasonal. ;’)


81 posted on 12/18/2007 11:55:27 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Monday, December 10, 2007____________________https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: WakeUpAndVote
Good morning.
‘What’s 2012?”

2012 is the year that the next President will either be booted out of office or reelected.

December 21, 2012 will be around the time that the DemocRATs will burn the cities in an outburst of insane celebration or burn the cities in an outburst of insane rage, depending on who wins, of course.

Just joking, I think.

Michael Frazier

82 posted on 12/18/2007 11:59:45 AM PST by brazzaville (No surrender, no retreat. Well, maybe retreat's ok)
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To: Just mythoughts

When they started counting sunspots. 1790ish is when solar cycle 1 peaked.


83 posted on 12/18/2007 12:00:04 PM PST by Rick.Donaldson (http://www.transasianaxis.com - Visit for lastest on DPRK/Russia/China/Etc --Fred Thompson for Prez.)
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To: Red Badger
I’m not sure why Freepers are quoting Wiki so often. It’s makes nice read, but is jiggered and spun constantly. I would use a more orthodox source to make my points. I would imaging a half dozen topics that blame Bush for tax cuts for the rich hurting the deficit when we are taking in more money each year. I certainly wouldn’t give much weight to their view on climate change or solar irradiance. The output could average out over time, but have fits and starts of huge variances.

A solar storm can have large and long lasting effects even though over time it evens out.

84 posted on 12/18/2007 12:00:26 PM PST by chuckles
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To: Red Badger
near the sun's equator

Anybody know how they determine what is the Sun's equator, since it doesn't contain any geographic features? I'm serious, I never thought of this until just now. How do we know that it doesn't wobble on an axis or something?

85 posted on 12/18/2007 12:05:21 PM PST by Hardastarboard (DemocraticUnderground.com is an internet hate site.)
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To: Hardastarboard

The “equator” of a sphere is simply the halfway point between the poles of the axis. Features on the surface are irrelevant..........


86 posted on 12/18/2007 12:08:21 PM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
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To: chuckles

WIKI is okay for “non” political or non-controversial information. Take everything with a grain of salt, since it’s open source material...........


87 posted on 12/18/2007 12:10:15 PM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
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To: r9etb

I see a new plot for a FOX network TV show:

Sun Cycle 24: The Inferno!..................


88 posted on 12/18/2007 12:11:40 PM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
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To: Constitutionalist Conservative

Wedensday Night/Thursday morning

http://www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2007/12/19.html


89 posted on 12/18/2007 12:26:30 PM PST by Perdogg (Fred Thompson for President)
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To: Red Badger

I understand the mathematical concept. What I was wondering is that on the earth, you can point to specific geographic locations through which the equator runs. It just seems pointless to me to talk about the equator of the sun and sun spots or activity in relation to it. Or maybe since the sun is a featureless orb, we’re forced to use the mathematical definition. Is that what you mean? Not trying to be difficult, just want to understand.


90 posted on 12/18/2007 1:47:31 PM PST by Hardastarboard (DemocraticUnderground.com is an internet hate site.)
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To: Red Badger

Give or take 100 years! (2112)


91 posted on 12/18/2007 1:51:24 PM PST by geopyg (Don't wish for peace, pray for Victory. ------ www.gohunter08.com ------)
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To: ruger9mm

“What am I going to do with all food/fuel/ammo I have stored in the basement?”

I’ll buy them. I just opened up a new box of checks so I’m good for it.


92 posted on 12/18/2007 1:55:05 PM PST by geopyg (Don't wish for peace, pray for Victory. ------ www.gohunter08.com ------)
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To: Red Badger
Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

Ha! So maybe THIS is what the Mayans predicted that led them to end their astronomical calendar that year.

93 posted on 12/18/2007 2:26:21 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: Perdogg

Heh, I thought of the Mayans before I saw your post. Some good info in your link!


94 posted on 12/18/2007 2:27:36 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: Red Badger


Quotes by Chairman Gore:

"There are many who still do not believe that global warming is a problem at all. And it's no wonder: because they are the targets of a massive and well-organized campaign of disinformation lavishly funded by polluters who are determined to prevent any action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming out of a fear that their profits might be affected if they had to stop dumping so much pollution into the atmosphere." -- Chairman Gore

"The scientists are virtually screaming from the rooftops now. The debate is over! There's no longer any debate in the scientific community about this. But the political systems around the world have held this at arm's length because it's an inconvenient truth, because they don't want to accept that it's a moral imperative." -- Chairman Gore

"I drive a hybrid. Tipper and I got a Lexus hybrid. And we have a couple of Priuses in the family with our children. And I encourage people to make environmentally conscious choices because we all have to solve this climate crisis." -- Chairman Gore

"I am Al Gore and I used to be sane. Why doesn't anyone listen to me? Can't they see what we do on Earth affects the whole solar system? Don't they see my Priapus is making a difference?" -- Chairman Gore

OK, wait. The last quote hasn't yet been uttered by Chairman Gore.

.

95 posted on 12/18/2007 2:49:46 PM PST by OESY
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To: Red Badger

“Global Climate Change”.

Is is supposed to be a super max cycle or regular?


96 posted on 12/18/2007 3:10:03 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Sundog; Red Badger

There is a theory that the Sun’s increased magnetic activity increases the solar wind and diverts cosmic rays from other stars which would otherwise hit our atmosphere. Cosmic rays increase formation of clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight and make for a cooler planet. That is one theory for global warming — that the cycles of higher magnetic activity have reduced cosmic rays and cloud formation, allowing the Earth to absorb more sunlight.

The mini ice age could be correlate since no sunspots means more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, more cooling.

If we are at a minimum, we should see global cooling for the past few years and for the next few. But the article says the next cycle is expected to be large, which implies more global warming as magnetic activity ramps up. So by 2020, the global warmists might have some higher temps to point at again.


97 posted on 12/18/2007 3:26:30 PM PST by Kellis91789 (Liberals aren't atheists. They worship government -- including human sacrifices.)
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To: Clioman
“Didn’t Al Gore invent solar cycles?”

Yes he did. I don’t have the picture, but it has a solar panel, two peddles, two wheels with one training wheel on the left side, a seat and handle bars. As he leans to the left, he just goes around in circles.

98 posted on 12/18/2007 6:49:42 PM PST by steveab (When was the last time someone tried to sell you a CO2 induced climate control system for your home?)
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To: buffyt

We have liberal friends who fell for the Y2K hysteria. They were panicked Christmas 1999.


99 posted on 12/18/2007 6:57:37 PM PST by kalee
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To: G.Mason

ROFLOLOLOLOL


100 posted on 12/18/2007 7:03:30 PM PST by kalee
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