Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?
www.physorg.com ^ | 12/17/2007 | by Dr. Tony Phillips, Science@NASA

Posted on 12/18/2007 5:40:18 AM PST by Red Badger

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.

It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?

It could be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; catastrophism; energy; globalwarming; gw; space; sun
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-117 next last

“...until the year 2012 when they will reverse again.”

Uh-oh, I’d expect the Mayan long count prophets will storm in any second...


61 posted on 12/18/2007 8:06:34 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Monday, December 10, 2007____________________https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: Just another Joe

Bingo!


62 posted on 12/18/2007 8:12:50 AM PST by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Just another Joe

Bingo!


63 posted on 12/18/2007 8:12:51 AM PST by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Justa
Their calendar simply outlasted them.

Yup.

64 posted on 12/18/2007 8:13:45 AM PST by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

December 20, 2012
65 posted on 12/18/2007 8:16:50 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Profile updated Monday, December 10, 2007____________________https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 61 | View Replies]

To: dbacks

That is GOOD news! I have lots of shopping to do........... Oh Joy!


66 posted on 12/18/2007 8:34:38 AM PST by Ditter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 55 | View Replies]

To: Calvin Locke

Thank you for the link, awesome photos.


67 posted on 12/18/2007 8:44:01 AM PST by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: WakeUpAndVote

The next Y2K.


68 posted on 12/18/2007 8:55:20 AM PST by Hoffer Rand
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: MrB
Is it really necessary to point out that despite the HooDooVooDoo...the Mayans who for some odd reason stopped their calandar in 2012....are dead and gone, as it their culture, for 300 years plus? Oh, sure, they forsaw the end of the world, but they missed the obliteration of their worldly empire by the gun, Cross, epidemic and Spaniard?
69 posted on 12/18/2007 8:57:11 AM PST by 50sDad (Liberals: Never Happy, Never Grateful, Never Right.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: dbacks
In addition, the midwest was experiencing extreme winter snows/cold weather. The winters of 70-72 were also extremely bitter. Could it be that by 20012 we will be in the middle of a perceived Global Freezing scare?

The solar minimum is marked by fewer solar storms and less gamma emission. It has been shown that gamma rays increase condensation of water (clouds) leading to increased precipitation and lower temperatures. We are currently at a solar minimum, so drought and warmer temperatures are expected. That should improve nicely in the next 6 years.

70 posted on 12/18/2007 8:57:54 AM PST by Myrddin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

You only missed by 100 years.

One of their best.

71 posted on 12/18/2007 10:45:16 AM PST by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: PeaceBeWithYou

IMHO, Their BEST!.............


72 posted on 12/18/2007 10:46:31 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv

.....and a partridge in a pear tree..................


73 posted on 12/18/2007 10:47:40 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Cripes and I sat on my tinfoil hat again...we’re soooooo doooooomed.


74 posted on 12/18/2007 10:48:28 AM PST by Karliner ("Things are more like they are now than they ever were before. DDE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Sounds like people looking for the end of Ramadan....

75 posted on 12/18/2007 10:52:07 AM PST by r9etb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
No. Solar Cycle is primarily magnetic in nature. The Solar Energy output is nearly constant, with only minor variations.

However, the solar UV output varies by a factor of about four over the course of a solar cycle....

76 posted on 12/18/2007 10:54:41 AM PST by r9etb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: r9etb

77 posted on 12/18/2007 10:56:58 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: sionnsar
Place your bets for SC24: "A number of well regarded solar physicists are predicting the next solar cycle will be far weaker than the last one."

I love the remark on the October 17 post:

I wonder what we should call the next minimum in solar activity? The Hansen Minimum?

78 posted on 12/18/2007 11:20:30 AM PST by Constitutionalist Conservative (Global Warming Heretic -- http://agw-heretic.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 53 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
From Survive2012:

Future chapters will look into:

Still trying to figure out the connection between the Mayans and unicorns. I hope he finishes that chapter before The End comes.
79 posted on 12/18/2007 11:26:51 AM PST by Constitutionalist Conservative (Global Warming Heretic -- http://agw-heretic.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
new solar cycle beginning! 1 second after 0000hrs 01 january 2008!

flee!

80 posted on 12/18/2007 11:30:43 AM PST by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-117 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson