Posted on 12/18/2007 5:40:18 AM PST by Red Badger
The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).
From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.
It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.
The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?
It could be starting now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude
The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.
Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.
The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle?
“...until the year 2012 when they will reverse again.”
Uh-oh, I’d expect the Mayan long count prophets will storm in any second...
Bingo!
Bingo!
Yup.
That is GOOD news! I have lots of shopping to do........... Oh Joy!
Thank you for the link, awesome photos.
The next Y2K.
The solar minimum is marked by fewer solar storms and less gamma emission. It has been shown that gamma rays increase condensation of water (clouds) leading to increased precipitation and lower temperatures. We are currently at a solar minimum, so drought and warmer temperatures are expected. That should improve nicely in the next 6 years.
You only missed by 100 years.
One of their best.
IMHO, Their BEST!.............
.....and a partridge in a pear tree..................
Cripes and I sat on my tinfoil hat again...we’re soooooo doooooomed.
Sounds like people looking for the end of Ramadan....
However, the solar UV output varies by a factor of about four over the course of a solar cycle....
I love the remark on the October 17 post:
I wonder what we should call the next minimum in solar activity? The Hansen Minimum?
Future chapters will look into:
flee!
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