Posted on 12/18/2007 5:40:18 AM PST by Red Badger
The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).
From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.
It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.
The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?
It could be starting now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude
The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.
Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.
The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle?
:’) Appropriately seasonal. ;’)
2012 is the year that the next President will either be booted out of office or reelected.
December 21, 2012 will be around the time that the DemocRATs will burn the cities in an outburst of insane celebration or burn the cities in an outburst of insane rage, depending on who wins, of course.
Just joking, I think.
Michael Frazier
When they started counting sunspots. 1790ish is when solar cycle 1 peaked.
A solar storm can have large and long lasting effects even though over time it evens out.
Anybody know how they determine what is the Sun's equator, since it doesn't contain any geographic features? I'm serious, I never thought of this until just now. How do we know that it doesn't wobble on an axis or something?
The “equator” of a sphere is simply the halfway point between the poles of the axis. Features on the surface are irrelevant..........
WIKI is okay for “non” political or non-controversial information. Take everything with a grain of salt, since it’s open source material...........
I see a new plot for a FOX network TV show:
Sun Cycle 24: The Inferno!..................
I understand the mathematical concept. What I was wondering is that on the earth, you can point to specific geographic locations through which the equator runs. It just seems pointless to me to talk about the equator of the sun and sun spots or activity in relation to it. Or maybe since the sun is a featureless orb, we’re forced to use the mathematical definition. Is that what you mean? Not trying to be difficult, just want to understand.
Give or take 100 years! (2112)
“What am I going to do with all food/fuel/ammo I have stored in the basement?”
I’ll buy them. I just opened up a new box of checks so I’m good for it.
Ha! So maybe THIS is what the Mayans predicted that led them to end their astronomical calendar that year.
Heh, I thought of the Mayans before I saw your post. Some good info in your link!
.
“Global Climate Change”.
Is is supposed to be a super max cycle or regular?
There is a theory that the Sun’s increased magnetic activity increases the solar wind and diverts cosmic rays from other stars which would otherwise hit our atmosphere. Cosmic rays increase formation of clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight and make for a cooler planet. That is one theory for global warming — that the cycles of higher magnetic activity have reduced cosmic rays and cloud formation, allowing the Earth to absorb more sunlight.
The mini ice age could be correlate since no sunspots means more cosmic rays, more cloud formation, more cooling.
If we are at a minimum, we should see global cooling for the past few years and for the next few. But the article says the next cycle is expected to be large, which implies more global warming as magnetic activity ramps up. So by 2020, the global warmists might have some higher temps to point at again.
Yes he did. I don’t have the picture, but it has a solar panel, two peddles, two wheels with one training wheel on the left side, a seat and handle bars. As he leans to the left, he just goes around in circles.
We have liberal friends who fell for the Y2K hysteria. They were panicked Christmas 1999.
ROFLOLOLOLOL
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