Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[Reagan Man]

The NRTL Committee endorsed Fred because he is the best all around pro-life conservative candidate running. A HLA would be great, but after 35 years of waiting its just not gonna happen anytime soon. If it ever does. There are better alternatives right now. Overturning RvW and sending it back to the states is the best decision.

Right now, almost all states have laws on the books banning most types of abortions. Roe v Wade has made those anti-abortion laws null and void. Get rid of RvW and the states can restart their individual abortion laws.

Its all about the Constitution and federalism.

Now where does Mitt stand on abortion today?

From what I can tell, Mitt's all over the place on abortion.

You Can't Trust Mitt Part 1:Abortion

[BillyBoy]

>> Are we going to keep tolerating these vicious hate-Fred threads from trolls trying to foist liberal RINOs like Rudy McRombee down our throats ? <<

Yep. Welcome to FR.

Arkansas - Freeper Governor Mike Huckabee reelected

Where the revisionist claim that "Huck was an awful commie RINO in office" is refuted as easily as the RATs revisionist claim that "Bush lied about all the WMD stuff in 2002"

The historical record is a b----, eh?

Kinda cool that Rudy McRomney is now Rudy McRombee though. Obviously the people gloating that we "fear Fred" a few monthes ago are terrified of the Huckster.

[A6M3]

Fred is zeroing in on the funeral directors vote.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I think the better question is, which one will harm the Republicans and Conservatives more ? (I’ll give you a clue, it ain’t the witch.)

[BillyBoy]

>> The NRTL Committee endorsed Fred because he is the best all around pro-life conservative candidate running. <<

RTL officially endorsed the now incarcerated George Ryan over pro-life Democrat Glenn Poshard in 2002. We were supposed to "look past" the fact Ryan picked the most hardcore abortionist running mate he could, because ol' George was alledgedly "the best all around pro-life conservative candidate running"

That worked out well, eh?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Nope, flag, I smelled the coffee regarding that fraud a long time ago. Hint: He’s not interested in Conservativism or expanding the GOP, he has NO core beliefs, and he’s only interested in power. I’ve known him 13 years. Romney is a very scary man. No different than the Clintons, and he’s running in the wrong party.

[Route66]

Wow! 200 posts...

Every time I see one of these threads I KNOW FRed is very much alive. Otherwise all these people would not still be spending so much time and effort trying to kill him off.

:-) Go Fred!

[flaglady47]

“Bobbisox doesn’t have to justify herself to you, either, flag.”

Well, it appears to me, and I suspect a lot of others on this thread, that you are requiring anyone who is interested in a candidate other than Fred Thompson to justify themselves to you (and Bobbisox) or else they are (as you said yourself) not a conservative. So, be careful how you throw the word “justify” around, as it seems to be a requirement of both you and Bobbisox as proof of being ideologically pure in your estimation. I think you two have cornered the “please justify” market, only you don’t say please, you demand.

[fieldmarshaldj]

“I was an early member of the Thompson ping list, participated in Thompson threads, defended him against attackers.”

Baloney.

[Yaelle]

Stealing a quote from you and using it as my tagline! Thanks! The check’s in the mail...

[Bobbisox]

Thank you sir! I think flaglady is just fearful like all of us that the wrong person will be elected. We all have our opinions as to who we think would be the best and as in all politics, we try to persuade people to our way of thinking.

There is no reason for hositlity. I’m sorry if I came off like a bitch...but my opinion is no better or worse than anyone else. (Just right!)

[GOP_Lady]

I understand. I’m so disgusted with this past election (more so because of what the dems have done since) that I and my brother and sisters and brothers-in-law want to someday get out of here, and we never thought we’d say that. There is a LOT of angry Ohioans because of what the dems have done. But, let’s keep fighting (and it’s going to be harder). I have a very good feeling that for this election though, it’s not going to take much for us to come togehter and get out the vote.

[Romneyfor President2008]

Ideologically I am a conservative/libertarian. But I vote Republican. Sort of like Milton Friedman said, “I’m a libertarian with a small L.” I’m a realist. Romney is a successful American businessman and familyman. He’s got 1 wife and 5 sons. That is all that I need to know.

Conservatism isn’t going to be saved or destroyed by any of these people. That’s up to the common people, not one person.

Isn’t a Fred voter just a Hunter voter who wants to win? What does that say about Hunter voters? They are the purest in ideology. And for that, I must say I admire them the most. LOL

[Reagan Man]

LMAO You never supported Fred!

Sorry, Spiffy. Mitt ain’t gonna be nominee.

Its either Rooty or Fred. Looks like either way, you’ll be disappointed. Hopefully I won’t be.

[GOP_Lady]

LOL. :-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Shall we post Huckster’s record of shame ? Let’s start with his browbeating Christians on supporting illegals. I’d like to show that meathead my next door neighbors. He can come move in with me and get audiologically raped several times a week like I was for 3 1/2 hours today. He can kiss my a$$ before I’d vote for him for President.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Troll.

[John Valentine]

Snake oil.

[Yaelle]

I agree with every word you said. I keep WAITING for Fred to do something to disappoint me and he has not. I am impressed that he is out front on issues online DAILY and I cannot disagree with any of his positions so far.

I do not know why we want a Type A Party-all-Night President. We had one of those, didn’t we, who, when his day was done, still had energy left to go downstairs and have phone sex with an intern?

And didn’t we also have a Lazy, Sleepy, Old President once too? I think we could form a good consensus on this forum that Ronald Reagan was one of the better Presidents of the 20th century, and yet he took naps!

Lazy like a FOX.

[Reagan Man]

So the NRTL endorsement means nothing to you.

Gotcha! LOL