Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[Romneyfor President2008]

Oh definitely. Romney is only here because of his money (and to lesser extent, his communication skills, demeanor, family, etc) Romney is the weakest of the top candidates. He has little national recognition. Fred gets free advertising just being on Law and Order and Die Hard 2. So, I think Romney is a big risk. But Fred is also a campaigning risk, how much energy he is, what kind of people he’s surrounded with, etc.

Before the summer, I only knew about Fred and thought he would easily beat Rudy. I didn’t have any problems supporting Fred. But then he started delaying and delaying and he was presenting an attitude like he didn’t care millions of people supported him. And then I was surprised at how many people want Rudy.

So deep down for me, I think Romney is a ideological compromise between Rudy and Fred. I will support any Republican nominee because I believe that handing the election to Klinton is handing our troops over to Klinton.

[GOP_Lady]

The downfall of Bob Taft is that he accomplished nothing in eight years and shed a bad light on the Ohio GOP, you are correct, and he did nothing to help correct it.

I don’t think there is anyone running for President now that has destroyed the GOP in any way, and I don’t think anyone wants to. MA is a messed up state because of the dems (and has been for decades), not because of anyone else.

[joseph20]

"Mitt is well qualified, energetic, intelligent, well organized, and has a great platform."

He is a gun grabber, is he not?

Don't trust him to build the fence either.

[Bobbisox]

Hey lady...take your frustration out on someone who gives a damn what you personally think. This is a forum for opinions. Everyone has one...even you.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I am unapologetically “johnny-one-note” in seeing our party nominates an actual Conservative and not a liberal with a track record of destroying Republican fortunes and the Conservative agenda. It’s unfortunate you seem to have a problem with that.

[flaglady47]

“The NRTL endorsed Fred Thompson.”

Why is the question, as Fred does not support a constitutional amendment banning abortion, and believes it should be up to each state to decide what to do about the abortion issue. So you would end up with 50 different state laws on allowing or disallowing abortion. Great solution, don’t you think?

[BreezyDog]

Tanks for the info...

[fieldmarshaldj]

That’s the problem right there. You’re as blind as a bat. You should wake up and smell the hairspray.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>So deep down for me, I think Romney is a ideological compromise between Rudy and Fred.

I think you're onto something there. Sorta like what I've been saying. Romney`s politics are closer to Rooty`s liberal politics, then to Fred's conservative politics.

After all, thats why we all come to Free Republic. To promote conservative candidates and oppose liberal candidates.

So, what are you doing here?

[flaglady47]

“Hey lady...take your frustration out on someone who gives a damn what you personally think. This is a forum for opinions. Everyone has one...even you.”

Hmmmm,it appears you are of the same personality type as fieldmarshall. Birds of a feather....

[fieldmarshaldj]

And for the record, I have never watched a single episode of Fred on “Law & Order.” I haven’t watched that show in 15 years. I support the man on his successful political career, not his acting one.

[hole_n_one]

So, what are you doing here?

That's a nasty little habit you have, R M.

[GOP_Lady]

Rate the following two people, please (0 being liberal - 10 being conservative). Would you rate them nearly the same?:

1. Hillary!
2. Romney

[Kevmo]

It’s a wide open race, and the process itself generates name recognition, but character is more important than name recognition. Fred had great name recognition, seems to have plenty of money. He has squandered it, losing 30 points at Intrade and dropping in the polls. Hunter has kept in the race on his shoestring budget, overshadowed by Thompson’s presence in the same way that McClintock was overshadowed by aRINOld. Fred is not a good campaigner, Hunter has never been given the chance with those kinds of resources but has proven trustworthy with the little he has. This time we can do something about the looming mistake in the republican party. It’s too late to correct the damage done by aRINOld.

.

.

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

[flaglady47]

“That’s the problem right there. You’re as blind as a bat. You should wake up and smell the hairspray.”

Well, you are blind in one eye and can’t see out of the other, and you should wake up and smell the coffee. See, I can trade trite barbs too. Isn’t it fun?

[Spiff]

You've never supported Fred. Although after all our Stop Rudy efforts, I thought you would choose to back a viable conservative like Fred. Instead of a liberal-moderate like Romney. You're pathetic.

Wrong. Again. I was an early member of the Thompson ping list, participated in Thompson threads, defended him against attackers. Heck, I was even the first poster that I know of here to put together a pro-Fred Thompson Rating table and post it in a number of threads. (example.) And I had to defend it a number of times too. Then I realized that I had bought into a bunch of hype about a mediocre at best candidate while also believing a pack of lies people were telling about Romney.

I looked at each of the candidates, their records, their stated positions on issues important to me, their character, their experience, their money, their ability to campaign effectively, and their chances in the primary and the general, etc. and found that Romney came out well above the others. I politely asked that my name be removed from the Thompson ping list and I begged the Romney supporters' forgiveness for the bad treatment I had given them earlier. I chose the only viable conservative Republican in the race. Is Romney the most conservative Republican in the race? Heavens, no. But he is the only viable one against Rudy. Could I support Thompson? He was my number two choice until I saw his chances take a major dive, learned more than I really wanted to know about his actual record and views, heard some of the outright lies he's told about his own record and about Romney, and due to the behavior of some his supporters. If something made me leave the Romney camp, I don't know which candidate I'd pick because all the rest have little chance of winning. If I threw viability away as a determining factor, I'd go with the most conservative candidate which would be Duncan Hunter.

[flaglady47]

“Rate the following two people, please (0 being liberal - 10 being conservative). Would you rate them nearly the same?”

No.

[GOP_Lady]

Thanks. I didn’t think you would. I just wondered how close they would be. :-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

A Governor is the man (or woman) ultimately responsible for the success or failure of the party on their watch. To be a success, they either must maintain the majority they have, or grow the party if it is at a minority standpoint. The OH GOP was a powerhouse after being in the doghouse in the ‘80s. Thanks to 2 subpar or outright incompetent Governors, they eviscerated the party to only one statewide officeholder, lost a Senate seat, House seats, and barely retain the legislature.

MA is even worse. From 1991 until 2007, the state had FOUR “Republican” Governors. Beginning with William Weld, the state was competitive at the Presidential level and in 5 out of 10 Congressional districts (winning 3 during the ‘90s), won 5 statewide offices and was 5 seats away from winning a majority in the State Senate. After colossal incompetence, and after Romney’s fleeing from office, the state no longer is competitive Presidentially, no longer competitive for any federal office, holds barely above 10% of the legislature, and holds ZERO statewide offices. That’s not due to the Democrats... that’s due to RINO Governance. Deliberate sabotage. Romney carried out the agenda of William Weld to bury the state GOP as a viable opposition force to the Democrats, and in only 16 years, they made the MA GOP deader than any pre-1960s state GOP in the Deep South... in a state that was once one of the most Republican in America.

If you don’t understand why I’m fighting to keep destructive RINOs like Romney or Taft or the like from EVER being near positions of power, I don’t know what else to tell you, madam.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Bobbisox doesn’t have to justify herself to you, either, flag.