Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I don’t need to justify myself to liberal trolls... of either party.

[claudiustg]

Anyone but Giuliani!

[isrul]

Fred is not part of the plan. He’s is the only one who could beat the queen of cleavage but even the schmuck Bush says she as the experience because she was bubbas consort (at least on paper).

[GOP_Lady]

I met Bob Dole at a campaign stop in Kirtland, Ohio during his Presidential campaign. I was so surprised how much older and how much more frail he looked in person than on TV. I still have the campaign poster with his signature on it.

[flaglady47]

“WE THE PEOPLE must now step up for him and support him with everything we can. America is at stake. People wake up and unite behind this very fine candidate. Are you willing to just sit back and let the MSM make the choice for you?”

What’s with you people who claim to speak for “we the people”? Did it ever dawn on you that from a field of Pub candidates that include, what is it now, 8 people, some Pubs may be choosing a candidate to back other than Fred Thompson? Geez, what is this, a dictatorship where you must back the designated candidate (in your own mind only). Leave me out of your definition of “we the people”. I will make up my own mind as to whom I will end up voting for, whoever that may be. I believe we still live in a free country, although that is in jeopardy from the commies and leftists, so be very careful not to act like them by trying to limit anyone’s choice as to whom they want for President of our Republic by claiming all the others are somehow inferior to your particular choice. And speak only for yourself.

[eyedigress]

[Spiff]

No, he's the most qualified RINO to run as a Democrat, given that he did more to expand the liberal agenda and to bury the MA Republican party making it permanently safe for a complete and absolute uncontested one-party rodent state than ANY other current or recent "Republican" Governor. To say he was a fiasco would be the understatement of the year. I know at least one liberal professor who is supporting him for President because he wants Precious Willard to do to the national Republican party what he did to the Massachusetts GOP. Scary stuff.

You and others keep repeating the same unsupportable and whacky story that Mitt Romney single-handedly destroyed the Massachusetts GOP. Can I have a FReeper from Massachusetts clue you in on what really happened to the GOP there? Or are you more interested in posting insults and your own goofy theories about stuff you know little about?

[Hornitos]

There’s a lot of truth to what you wrote. It calls into question the whole concept of leadership and what it means for America in our dangerous times. But I am optimistic.

[eyedigress]

I Know. :^) (Just hangin’ out)

[isrul]

Seems that the rino Establishment is committed to a clinton victory. The drumbeat just keeps beating and increasing.

[GOP_Lady]

That could very well be true. But a lot of people now think Rudy has the best chance of beating “Hillary!” I think that could change, but it has to change relatively soon.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Since Romney’s goal is the evisceration of the Republican party at the national level (carrying out the agenda of his political hero, William Weld), I have no use for making peace with people that wish to destroy the only vehicle for Conservatism and the Conservative movement. The Mittwitts, Rudybots, Hucksterites, Shrimptwits and McCainiacs can all go take a long walk off a very short pier.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Two authentic Republicans, unlike you.

[hole_n_one]

Grumpy Old Men!

I suppose this is another example of one of those vicious, hateful posts.

......and don't think for a minute that you're fooling anybody with that cute little smiley face at the end.

[isrul]

Thing is, if he is not the nominee, Clinton will be president.

[Spiff]

Since Romney’s goal is the evisceration of the Republican party at the national level (carrying out the agenda of his political hero, William Weld), I have no use for making peace with people that wish to destroy the only vehicle for Conservatism and the Conservative movement. The Mittwitts, Rudybots, Hucksterites, Shrimptwits and McCainiacs can all go take a long walk off a very short pier.

You're such a credit to the Thompson campaign. I'm sure that he totally approves of your behavior, namecalling, and all that. It does help him out sooooo much, don't you think? I mean, the strategy of calling all the supporters of other candidates all kinds of names and berating them always wins them over to the candidate you're supporting. Doesn't it?

[fieldmarshaldj]

I back up my points with facts. If Romney was a successful Republican Governor and party leader, you list ALL the statewide and federal Republicans in Massachusetts he helped elect.

Start with Governor.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I still have that doorknob with your name on it, troll.

[cherry]

he has not underwhelmed anybody....the fact is that all the media...Fox included...are fawning over the Rat candidates and there is little mention of the Gop guys.....

take the debates for instance.....do you see CNN or MSNBC covering the Gop debates before, during, and after as they do the Rats?....no...it seems that the MSM/DBM are parsing every word of the RAts and all they can do is jump on any little thing the Pubs say to find fault with it....

IT is NOVEMBER....the first Toon didn't start shooting up until the spring of that next year....

its going to be Rudy or Fred.....for sure....once the real campaign gets going, there will be no questions....

besides that....the more Hitlery prances around, the more unlikeable she is becoming....she will sink her own ship if we let her....

[restornu]

That was weak...LOL