Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[hole_n_one]

I agree.....that was the dumbest post of the year.

There is still another 5+ weeks left before the year is out and I'm pretty certain that when it's all said and done, it won't even be in the top 20.

OTOH, it's quite possible that what I just wrote will make the top 5.

[stephenjohnbanker]

Thank you, m’lady!

[eyedigress]

I tried to make you the good guy.

[fieldmarshaldj]

These threads are nothing but a part of the concerted liberal media and RINO Establishment effort to destroy Fred and to keep our party from nominating the only viable Conservative. These trolls that post this crap need to be shown the door.

[ejonesie22]

Actually I choose all three, with Duncan as a back up.

See I have this thing about voting for Conservatives.

How about you?

[flaglady47]

“This guy does not deserve to be in the game, and the only reason he is is that he bought himself in.”

Then, according to your definition of who does not deserve to be in the game, neither did George Bush, who also was a Governor of a state, just like Mitt. And George Bush didn’t have the depth of background that Mitt has had in business (CEO of a large, successful company), and leader of the Olympics, bringing it out of a deficit and into the black. As many if not most of our Presidents of recency, have come from being Governors of states, heaven knows what you consider as being qualified to run for the Office of President.

Let’s see, Guiliani was a Mayor of a major metropolitan city, Thompson a former Senator and TV actor, Huckabee a Governor of a tiny state, McCain a Senator forever, Hunter a House member, etc. Romney’s background matches up with any of these, and in fact it is a plus that the guy had a real job at one point, running a real business in the real world, rather than having been a lifelong politician in the Senate or House as so many are or have been. Frankly, all of our candidates have the qualifications and background to be President. May the best man win.

[eyedigress]

LOL

[stephenjohnbanker]

See post 86, then droppen zee dead!

[fieldmarshaldj]

I can show you a creative way as to where you can stick that doorknob, troll.

[DB]

All right I’ll say it.

The reason there’s all the animosity among us is because all the candidates suck. It is a pretty sad state of affairs that as a nation this is the best we have to offer...

[claudiustg]

At some point the Mittwits and the Fredheads will have to make peace and start thinking about taking on the Dimocraps — unless we can wipe all of you all out first... :^)

[WFTR]

Does anyone see a way where he takes the nomination? If so, let us know your thoughts.

I think Mr. Thompson's campaign is weak, but I can still see him winning the nomination. If he makes a solid effort in the early states and brings himself back to a respectable showing, he'll hold much of his support across the South. The South Carolina polls are still showing fifteen to twenty percent undecided. If those people were happy with Rudy Giuliani, they'd have decided six months ago when Rudy Giuliani was being touted as the only real contender. They may still be evaluating Mitt Romney, but they've had some time to look at him as well. As the newcomer, Fred Thompson has a good chance with them. If he performs well in South Carolina, he will help himself in Florida. We no longer know how Florida will apportion delegates, but if they keep a formula that gives delegates to the winner of each Congressional district, any candidate could pick up quite a few delegates without winning the state.

If Fred Thompson has a respectable number of delegates after Florida and South Carolina, he has a reasonable chance of holding much of the South. California apportions three delegates to the winner of each of fifty-some Congressional districts but has only ten at-large delegates to award to the winner of the state. "Winning" California is irrelevant. Winning a large number of districts in California is critical to all of the campaigns. We really don't know how some of the largely rural, conservative districts in the eastern part of the state will split. The same is true for the rural parts of Illinois. If Fred Thompson does well across the South, he may not even need that many delegates from California and Illinois.

New York and New Jersey award delegates on a winner-take-all basis across the state. I'm sure that Rudy Giuliani will win all of these delegates. He'll win some in Florida, but I hope he doesn't win many. He'll win some in California, but again, I hope he doesn't win many.

My favorite candidate is Duncan Hunter, but I'm losing faith in his campaign. My second favorite is Mitt Romney, and I still have hopes for him. If he wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan as expected and builds a winning organization in Florida as he has in other early states, he could end up with most of the early delegates including a small plurality from Florida. That momentum might allow him to pick up quite a few delegates in California, Illinois, and some other non-Southern states that vote on February 5. I think Arizona has a February 5 primary, and if John McCain hasn't won anything else by that time, Mitt Romney may take most of the Arizona delegates.

Under this scenario, we'll wake up on February 6 to a three-way race with Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson all having a fairly even split of delegates. At that point, the Republicans in the remaining states will have some decisions to make. They'll have seen how each of the candidates did in real primary elections with real voters and not just pundits and polls. They'll have a chance to look at each candidate's stands on the issues. The remaining states that will have big delegate counts will be Ohio and Texas. While I hope that the Republican voters will look at these three and pick Mitt Romney based on his executive experience and on Fred Thompson's being much less consistent than his supporters admit, I could easily see the Texas voters breaking for Fred Thompson in a big way. If he picks up some votes in Ohio, he'll have a very good chance to win the nomination.

Bill

[Hornitos]

I ask a question, and I am a troll? You are sick!

Welcome to the club. I dare to call people to live up to my high expectations of them as Americans, and I'm accused of being one, too.

[ejonesie22]

Actually Spiff, I think the members of Free Republic are pretty good barometers of what a real conservative looks like.

I have asked you this a couple of times and you won’t answer, so I go again.

What is more likely, that 86% of Free Republic are idiots because we don’t see Mitt Romney as a conservative or that you are wrong/biased/whatever?

[restornu]

Looks like Fred is hanging out with Bob Dole!

[Spiff]

stephenjohnbanker is a good guy. :-)

Maybe I assumed the worst about him and his intent. I'll take your word for it. Feel free to clue him in.

He might want to start with this FReeper's profile page to get some idea of why Romney has supporters. And then there's Mitt Romney's actual campaign site that has a lot of information.

[eyedigress]

I hope whomever comes out we can all support the candidate. He better be CONSERVATIVE btw.

[GOP_Lady]

You’re most welcome. :-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Romney is the best qualified person to be President, in either party."

No, he's the most qualified RINO to run as a Democrat, given that he did more to expand the liberal agenda and to bury the MA Republican party making it permanently safe for a complete and absolute uncontested one-party rodent state than ANY other current or recent "Republican" Governor. To say he was a fiasco would be the understatement of the year. I know at least one liberal professor who is supporting him for President because he wants Precious Willard to do to the national Republican party what he did to the Massachusetts GOP. Scary stuff.

[claudiustg]

Grumpy Old Men! :^)