Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[GOP_Lady]

Where’s the picture of the Star Trek doc?

[2ndDivisionVet]

How did I know that Spiff was the poster before I even looked? Are the Mittwits so worried about “Ol’ grandpa Fred” that they have to start all these threads? What are you worried about, spiff?! Just because Mitt’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep?

[claudiustg]

-—[Thompson’s] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. -—

Now all they need to add is hard work, intelligence, energy, and charm. Good for them!

[MHGinTN]

Don’t ya just love the smell of fear in the wee hours? Bwaahhahaha

[Spiff]

He's not dead. Well, he's....he's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.

[stephenjohnbanker]

Mitt will go down the tubes.........and I for one will ream it up (somebody’s nose) : )

[CJ Wolf]

I think he is just gloating at fred’s demise.

[Old Sarge]

“No, no, he’s stunned...”

[Old Sarge]

[2ndDivisionVet]

"I think he is just gloating at fred’s demise."

Second place in the national polls is "demise" now, is it?

[Cobra64]

"He's dead Jim"

[abercrombie_guy_38]

Something is wrong with the campaign, that’s for sure. A shame, too.

[GOP_Lady]

Does anyone see a way where he takes the nomination? If so, let us know your thoughts.

[stephenjohnbanker]

May I ask why you are backing Romney?

No sarcasm.

[Jeff Chandler]

Fred's got himself a pretty, young wife, though.

[Fairview]

I’m an ardent Fred supporter and have been on record from last winter saying that I wanted Fred to run and win. But I do not understand why his campaign is apparently so lackadaisical, and why the electorate doesn’t recognize his virtues. He’s not just right on the issues, but he expresses the right position beautifully. Why on earth are they supporting Giuliani? It isn’t just that Rudy is the only candidate they’ve heard of—lots of people watch Law & Order. I’m mystified and disappointed.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Seems to me that the primary campaign is wide open. Let’s let the process work as it was designed to do — which is to let the campaigners make their cases and avoid media-driven months-in-advance knee-jerk politics.

[org.whodat]

What are you worried about, spiff?! Just because Mitt’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep?

Good One, ROFLOL :)

[GOP_Lady]

Me, personally, I like Mr. Thompson and always have. To me, he’s saying the same thing that was said in 1996 (old), and it’s time to get up-to-date and move on and, of course, he’s not motivating and neither is his campaign. I expected more from him and his campaign. It is puzzling.