Does anyone see a way where he takes the nomination? If so, let us know your thoughts.
I think Mr. Thompson's campaign is weak, but I can still see him winning the nomination. If he makes a solid effort in the early states and brings himself back to a respectable showing, he'll hold much of his support across the South. The South Carolina polls are still showing fifteen to twenty percent undecided. If those people were happy with Rudy Giuliani, they'd have decided six months ago when Rudy Giuliani was being touted as the only real contender. They may still be evaluating Mitt Romney, but they've had some time to look at him as well. As the newcomer, Fred Thompson has a good chance with them. If he performs well in South Carolina, he will help himself in Florida. We no longer know how Florida will apportion delegates, but if they keep a formula that gives delegates to the winner of each Congressional district, any candidate could pick up quite a few delegates without winning the state.
If Fred Thompson has a respectable number of delegates after Florida and South Carolina, he has a reasonable chance of holding much of the South. California apportions three delegates to the winner of each of fifty-some Congressional districts but has only ten at-large delegates to award to the winner of the state. "Winning" California is irrelevant. Winning a large number of districts in California is critical to all of the campaigns. We really don't know how some of the largely rural, conservative districts in the eastern part of the state will split. The same is true for the rural parts of Illinois. If Fred Thompson does well across the South, he may not even need that many delegates from California and Illinois.
New York and New Jersey award delegates on a winner-take-all basis across the state. I'm sure that Rudy Giuliani will win all of these delegates. He'll win some in Florida, but I hope he doesn't win many. He'll win some in California, but again, I hope he doesn't win many.
My favorite candidate is Duncan Hunter, but I'm losing faith in his campaign. My second favorite is Mitt Romney, and I still have hopes for him. If he wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan as expected and builds a winning organization in Florida as he has in other early states, he could end up with most of the early delegates including a small plurality from Florida. That momentum might allow him to pick up quite a few delegates in California, Illinois, and some other non-Southern states that vote on February 5. I think Arizona has a February 5 primary, and if John McCain hasn't won anything else by that time, Mitt Romney may take most of the Arizona delegates.
Under this scenario, we'll wake up on February 6 to a three-way race with Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson all having a fairly even split of delegates. At that point, the Republicans in the remaining states will have some decisions to make. They'll have seen how each of the candidates did in real primary elections with real voters and not just pundits and polls. They'll have a chance to look at each candidate's stands on the issues. The remaining states that will have big delegate counts will be Ohio and Texas. While I hope that the Republican voters will look at these three and pick Mitt Romney based on his executive experience and on Fred Thompson's being much less consistent than his supporters admit, I could easily see the Texas voters breaking for Fred Thompson in a big way. If he picks up some votes in Ohio, he'll have a very good chance to win the nomination.
Bill