Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[eyedigress]

Why do you not support the Conesrvative candidate. Mitt has some points and so do the others yet the problem is they swing left. Is that ok with you?

[Cobra64]

I have repeatedly asked pro Romney advocates why they are voting for him (no BS) Not one has ever answered me.

Because we know that you're just trolling.

Dumbest, most asinine statement of the year to a seasoned FReeper.

SJB asked a question. He has received no response. Obviously you can't, or won't respond; so you accuse him of trolling?

"Internet keyboard commandos..."

[GOP_Lady]

I very much admire Duncan Hunter. Why is it so hard for a Congressman to get elected?

[John Valentine]

Thompson is a lethargic, snooze-fest candidate.

Can you offer up one single piece of evidence to support such a harsh judgement? Frankly, I fail to understand this accusation.

When I see Fred speak on TV, I’m on my feet cheeering in front of the set.

When the others are on, I’m wondering what on earth anyone sees in them, especially Mitt Romney. This guy does not deserve to be in the game, and the only reason he is is that he bought himself in.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Are we going to keep tolerating these vicious hate-Fred threads from trolls trying to foist liberal RINOs like Rudy McRombee down our throats ? We have enough of this crap from the liberal media and RINO establishment. This is a Conservative website.

[Jeff Chandler]

I actually like Fred. If he’s the nominee, I’ll vote for him.

I’m just poking a little fun at the old hound.

[John Valentine]

pissant, is that really you?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Last time I checked, this isn’t RINO or DU-Republic.

[eyedigress]

That is true, the problem is supporting Candidates whom ARE left. Bush saying Hillary can handle it is starting to look like an Oligarchy now.

[woofie]

[hole_n_one]

I think the AMs need to show him and the Fred haters the door.

It would have to be one of those big warehouse roll-up doors and not your regular, everyday type with a knob or else it might take until Nov. '08 to complete the banishing process.

Just imagine the line if it was simply single file.

[romanesq]

“All I know is that every time I see Thompson, I have a sudden need to take a nap.”

Would that be a dirt nap? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. But seriously, who’s put out better policy papers on immigration and Social Security. Also, I saw Fred’s ad on immigration. Honestly, I couldn’t done better. It was perfect.

To those of course who take illegal immigration seriously. And Fred is one of them. But I am concerned if he can compete in this abhorent and short primary series. It’ll be over before the snow melts. I think.

[darkangel82]

Last time I checked, this isn’t RINO or DU-Republic.

You'd never know from some of the posts on here.

[GOP_Lady]

I don’t consider this vicious at all. In fact, it is one of the most civil discussions around here in a long time. And I have never seen Spiff as being disrespectful (unless I missed something, but I give him the benefit of a doubt at first).

[Bobbisox]

I agree completely. I just do not understand why Conservatives don’t see what we see. Fred’s position papers are getting no traction in the MSM because they have already chosen the race they want: Hillary vs Rudy. Rudy, Mitt, McCain or Huckabee would be just another RINO in Washington...just what we don’t need.

Fred was already successful, why would he need the crap the MSM is laying out for him? I’ll tell you why, because WE THE PEOPLE asked him to run. Fred took his time, weighed the pros and cons, looked at the field and the positions they were each taking, and stepped up for WE THE PEOPLE!

WE THE PEOPLE must now step up for him and support him with everything we can. America is at stake. People wake up and unite behind this very fine candidate. Are you willing to just sit back and let the MSM make the choice for you?

[eyedigress]

I do agree it’s early, but oh my, the Candidates say where they stand.

[GOP_Lady]

And if everyone wants to really be honest, everyone is fighting against everyone’s candidate.

[hole_n_one]

......vicious hate-Fred threads.......

You must have a rather loose and flexible definition for the word vicious.

Now, about you use of the word hate.......

[Hostage]

It’s because Fred Thompson speaks slow as a gentlemanly Southerner and he speaks clear.

Whereas Guliani and Romney are fast talking north-easterners. Their supporters err in thinking that fast talk and the energy to do so is more important than slow clear substantive speeches that to one group are illuminating and believable and to Guliromney supporters are boring and sleep inducing because they have no appreciation of law, history and current challenges but are taken by fake imagery and false bravado.

And there are plenty more debates to separate the charlatans from the southern gentleman with the statesman demeanor.

[hole_n_one]

you s/b your