Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[ejonesie22]

Conservative positions should not need “revealing” if one is an actual Conservative...

[Irene Adler]

Thompson is a lethargic, snooze-fest candidate. He has no realistic chance of winning the nomination, and it’s a good thing he doesn’t. He could never win the general election. He just doesn’t have anywhere near the energy needed to prosecute a strong, national election race. His candidacy was never anything but a pathetic pipe-dream.

[Spiff]

Wonder which one of the mittmut posters is the stalker??

DRINK!!!

[org.whodat]

"In 1980, with approximately 106,000 people involved, Reagan again was the second choice of Republican caucus participants. George Bush won 31.6 percent support and Reagan 29.5 percent." From the history of the Iowa caucuses!

Iowa the great predictor! LOL

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, I read that article not to long ago. Very interesting an informative.

[eyedigress]

Go ahead and tell us who gets the Nomination and whom gets the VP elect. (You know who it is)

[org.whodat]

DRINK!!!

What's that? You've been drinking, who here would have guessed it?

[GOP_Lady]

Iowa really isn’t important, I don’t think, because it’s not a true primary. I think just about anyone would say so as well.

[dragnet2]

I don’t know why anyone thought FT would be the big conservative savior. Maybe because he looks the part?

I don’t know.

[fieldmarshaldj]

More crap from a Mittwitt.

[Spiff]

Iowa the great predictor! LOL

Wow! And to think your favorite candidate just announced a renewed effort to do better in Iowa? Why is that if Iowa is so unimportant. Are you calling Fred Thompson stupid?

[Silly]

“Beautiful plumage, Fred!”

[hole_n_one]

All I know is that every time I see Thompson, I have a sudden need to take a nap.

[eyedigress]

Watch this one.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’ve been watching Spiff for a long time. I think the AMs need to show him and the Fred haters the door.

[John Valentine]

I just don’t get the lacadaisical meme. It seems entirely lacking any evidentiary support. It looks like nothing more than a leftist talking point - a slander, really - that has been picked up and taken on a life of its own.

I just can’t see a single thing about fred that says lazy to me. He has stronger, more detailed positions than any other candidate of either party, he has been consistent longer than any other Republican, he expresses himself well, he is likable.

I just think that the average voter with a tendency toward Fred has been beaten down by the constant slanderous drumbeat of laziness and the he can’t win. What he needs to do to beat that back is to surprise everyone in Iowa. I hope he can pull it off.

He’s getting my vote, and my money.

[Spiff]

More crap from a Mittwitt.

More drivel from a doorknob.

[claudiustg]

-—Kind of like Ronald Reagan (a little) in a way, possibly? -—

When Reagan was running there was a sense that our best days were behind us. I think there is a similar desperation taking hold now, not as bad as the seventies, but becoming worse. Romney definitely doesn’t have a message of acquiescence and decline.

[pissant]

I don’t think the mods want to be banning folks that don’t like Fred. There are too many of us. This ain’t FredRepublic.

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, I remember those days as well — very depressing that’s for sure. Americans felt they were worth nothing. Ronald Reagan was the very first person I voted for for President — what a heck of a way to start out. :-)