Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[GOP_Lady]

A good analysis on your part. I don’t like how these primaries are sooner and closer together. I think it’s like making a hasty major purchase decision (somewhat).

[Spiff]

Two authentic Republicans, unlike you.

Oh, now you're not just the final judge of who is a conservative, but who is a Republican!? I'm not sure who elected you to that position.

So, your judgeship, just what are your conservative Republican credentials which qualify you to make such decrees?

[claudiustg]

-—The Mittwitts, Rudybots, Hucksterites, Shrimptwits and McCainiacs can all go take a long walk off a very short pier.-—

That’s not a very big tent you’re under, not even much of an umbrella.

[isrul]

He could beat her in NYS. But anywhere else he would just be a Dewey Republican.

[Spiff]

he has not underwhelmed anybody....the fact is that all the media...Fox included...are fawning over the Rat candidates and there is little mention of the Gop guys.....

Oh, come on. The media was fawning all over Fred Thompson for months prior to his lame Leno announcement. Heck, I even bought into the hype from the media and elsewhere and initially supported him.

[hole_n_one]

.....Shrimptwits......

I'm guessin' somebody that's short.

???

[Spiff]

I back up my points with facts. If Romney was a successful Republican Governor and party leader, you list ALL the statewide and federal Republicans in Massachusetts he helped elect.

Nationwide, the Republicans lost seats - in Congress, in the Senate, Governors, and in most state legislators. And that's all Romney's fault now?

Really. I know a FReeper from Massachusetts who might be able to give you a few clues about what has really been happening in the Mass. GOP.

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, and don’t even ask me about Ohio — it’s messed up and it’s going to be very, very close. The dems put three horrible issues on the ballot in the last electin to get them to the polls (and they had the same two in NV and MO). In the last poll I saw here (IIRC) McCain was leading, but it was very tight. I’d have to look it up. I’ll work even harder to make sure this state stays red, but it’s going to be the toughtest fight ever.

[hole_n_one]

Heck, I even bought into the hype from the media and elsewhere and initially supported him.

Source.

[BreezyDog]

I bet my Dad, who is a stone cold liberal who claims he’s an Independent, 5 bucks at 20 to 1 odds last March Fred would take the nomination. I think I’m out 5 bucks. I sent Fred some money early on but he is not exciting me. I want to see a lot of that in your face criticism of the left he is capable of. He’s not producing. I’m lost. Hunter is great but mismanaged. Who should I root for at this point? I need someone to lead me...

[eyedigress]

Who do you have now, out of Curiosity?

[Romneyfor President2008]

Fred isn’t going to be any more or less effective in promoting conservatism than Reagan Bush 41, Bush 43, Romney, McCain, Giuliani. We’re just electing a President here, not a lord or king with magic powers. There’s a Congress full of Dems and RINO’s any President has to work with. I support Romney because he is a Republican, a successful business executive and family man. That’s all I have to go on. I don’t give a rat’s behind what he did in Massachusetts. That’s such a liberal state, I don’t care. Is Romney going to work miracles, “Rebuild America” or “Save Western Civilization”? Nope, but neither will the other guys. This is just an election, not a Wagnerian opera. Bush 43 sounded very ideological too remember? Now look what happened to him. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I can easily Fred as the type of guy who’s going to make everyone else do all the work and take the blame for all his stumblings. I don’t want to say everything, because it’s just not polite.

[Spiff]

Source.

Source for what?

[John Valentine]

I agree that they all have the “qualifications”. I’m kind of comparing Romney to Ross Perot, another gadfly, except that Perot actually might have been able to garner a lot of support even if it weren’t for his money. I’m suggesting that if Romney had not brought so much of his own money to the game, he’s be competing with Thommy Thompson and Sam Brownback for the drop-out vote.

[TheThinker]

He needs to speak louder and stop making that face after every point. He needs to sound like he has the courage of his convictions. Then he needs to attack the liberals as a group and talk about how they have hurt the country and just chomp down on that bone and not let go.

[eyedigress]

The Oligarchy must go away.

[John Valentine]

Hang in there, you’ll get your hunnerd bucks.

[eyedigress]

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Oh, now you're not just the final judge of who is a conservative, but who is a Republican!? I'm not sure who elected you to that position."

Nope, not final. But a judge, and a good one at that. Anybody who is knowingly informed to the facts and yet still supports a liberal party-destroying RINO like Romney is NOT a Republican.

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, look — it’s Bubba and Evita!