Solar Activity, Earth's Magnetic Field and Galactic Cosmic Rays Affect Climate

CO2Science.org ^ | 20 June 2007 | Dergachev, V.A., Dmitriev, P.B., Raspopov, O.M. and Jungner, H.

[Robert A Cook PE]

References:

Dergachev, V.A., Dmitriev, P.B., Raspopov, O.M. and Jungner, H. 2006.

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth's magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10-12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch).

Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya 46: 123-134.

What was done

The authors review what they deem to be the salient features of the interacting effects of variations in solar activity and earth's magnetic field on the flux of galactic cosmic rays, together with the likelihood of their potential impact on earth's climate, based on "direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10-12 thousand years ago, [as] registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.)."

What was learned

Dergachev et al. find that "galactic cosmic ray levels in the earth's atmosphere are inversely related to the strength of the helio- and geomagnetic fields," and they conclude that "cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale." More specifically, they note that "changes in cloud processes under the action of cosmic rays, which are of importance for abundance of condensation nuclei and for ice formation in cyclones, can act as a connecting link between solar variability and changes in weather and climate," and they cite numerous scientific studies that indicate that "cosmic rays are a substantial factor affecting weather and climate on time scales of hundreds to thousands of years."

What it means

Carbon dioxide may not be the all-important dominating factor climate alarmists make it out to be when discussing earth's climatic history. Within the context of the Holocene, for example, the only time CO2 moves in concert with air temperature is over the period of earth's recovery from the global chill of the Little Ice Age (the past century or so), and it only does so then quite imperfectly. The flux of galactic cosmic rays, on the other hand, appears to have influenced ups and downs in both temperature and precipitation over the entire 10-12 thousand years of the Holocene, making it the prime candidate for "prime determinant" of earth's climatic state.

Reviewed (by www.CO2Science.org) 20 June 2007

[Robert A Cook PE]

Above comments summarize the original paper about Cosmic rays influencing climate changes: remarkably, the cosmic ray flux (intensity) DOES track with the changes we have seen in temperatures - both historically and in the geology (plant life, etc.) of the past few thousand years.

But CO2 levels are conspicuous in their FAILURE to track past climate changes.

But CO2 changes do track well with the environmentalists/socialists/neo-communists/Euro-naitons is THEIR efforts to control the world's energy supplies.

[matthew fuller]

Is this the next “Global Warming” or just another cause of it?

[stratocaster]

I can see it now...a NYT article “Cosmic Rays caused by Big Oil” Women and minorities hurt the most! It’s time for “universal cosmic ray control!” We’ll have “cosmic credits” By mid-afternoon Gore will proclaim “The science is settled”. Nancy Pelosi will say “I’m sure if we just go talk to these cosmic rays, they’d be reasonable”. Hillary, clutching the FBI file on cosmic rays will be on the phone trying to contact Cosmic dishwashers in NYC. John Edwards wonders how these cosmic rays could affect his hair.

[Robert A Cook PE]

My opinion of their work?

The combination of (Solar Wind/solar Magnetic Shielding) + (Earth’s Magnetic Field Changes) + (Background Cosmic Ray levels) -> (Decreased Cloud Cover) -> (Increased Earth’s Temperature) is very solid, and IS the cause of the (current) 1/2 degree change in temperature.

These changes track over the past few centuries, and track (through proxies like Argon and O2 isotope changes) through previous glacial and warm periods.

CO2 and methane levels do NOT track as precursors to temp changes, but instead FOLLOW temperature changes. They therefore, cannot be the cause of the temperature change. Solar flux (Cosmic ray interactions) DOES track as a precursor to temp changes.

CO2 is NOT responsible for the net changes in temperature we see today, but IS responsible for the greater plant growth and a large amount of today’s increased agriculture and woodlands productivity.

[VeniVidiVici]

CO2 is NOT responsible for the net changes in temperature we see today, but IS responsible for the greater plant growth and a large amount of today’s increased agriculture and woodlands productivity.

Ya, right. Tell that to our idiot governor (Crist), several other idiot governors and the rest of them with their hands out waiting to cash in on the sheeple that believe this.

[dragnet2]

Is this the next “Global Warming” or just another cause of it?

Uh no...You must understand, GW is only caused by man. Anything else, any other ideas, don't really fit.

[Robert A Cook PE]

For the AGW ping list tomorrow.

www.Co2science.org has 15-20 other studies on the positive links between cosmic ray levels and climate - most establishing the relationship between cosmic ray flux density and low level and intermediate level cloud cover.

Try this list of studies to start:

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/subject/e/extraterrestrial.jsp

[Wil H]

Is this the next “Global Warming” or just another cause of it?

Neither!

It's the SOLE cause of it..!

[JennysCool]

Unfortunately, Al Gore cannot make money off of cosmic rays as yet.

But thank you for your interest. In the event that Mr. Gore can make money off of cosmic rays in the future, he’ll contact you.

[Robert A Cook PE]

/recording from Al Gore’s Office of Consumer Response Responses 8<)

[steelyourfaith]

~~ AGW™ ping~~

[Thermalseeker]

CO2 and methane levels do NOT track as precursors to temp changes, but instead FOLLOW temperature changes. They therefore, cannot be the cause of the temperature change. Solar flux (Cosmic ray interactions) DOES track as a precursor to temp changes.

Louder, please. I think some Liberals in the back of the room didn't hear that part.......

[deathrace2000]

Bush did it!

[airborne]

Huh??

Are you saying that AlGore is wrong?

But....I thought the debate was over.

[Leftism is Mentally Deranged]

The truth shall be suppressed by the left and its minions in the media.

[Gondring]

However, the CO₂ radiative forcing exceeds this variability, no?

[Robert A Cook PE]

No, it (CO2 forcing) doesn’t.

Changes in CO2 have not - even at the very high levels of CO2 in the past - changed temperatures.

Today - as CO2 levels have steadily increased, temps have gone up (twice) , gone down (twice), been steady. No one, at any time in any research, has shown that CO2 changes temperatures at any level (high altitude, mid-troposphere, lower atmospheric, or on the ground.)

[Gondring]

Please explain how the extra 2 W/m² disappears in the energy balance.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Cooling: Increased cloud cover (not now in the GCM program models) reflects the incoming radiation back into space.

Warming: Decreased clouds allow more IR, visible, and UV rays to penetrate lower, get absorbed, and be re-reflected back by the (increased) water vapor still present.

[Gondring]

Increased cloud cover (not now in the GCM program models)...

Of course parameterization for cloud cover is included in GCMs!

But my question was about the energy balance, if the radiative forcing (IPCC definition) is 2 W/m², how is that excess energy expressed, if not as atmospheric heat (sensible/latent)?