Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch
Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.
At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.
At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,
The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .
I never saw them.
The mods yanked them. We don’t cotton to unsubstantiated allegations about conservative candidates. Neither should you. Until such time that a candidate’s name is connected to the story, don’t try to make the connection yourself out of sheer speculation. At least on FR.
Except for playing the role of the great white hope (which he is failing miserably at) there's not one attribute that says "vote for me".
He was decidedly undistinguished in his brief Senate career and does not have other leadership, managerial, fianacial, statesmanship, diplomatic or educational experience that qualfies him for the rigors and demands of the presidency.
And who are you, again?
I know a little about politics, too. And a little about history. I have no misgivings about Fred's public service resume.
If you're so proud of Fred's credentials why do you not just lay them out for all to see?
Why do you believe he is qualified to be the President of the United States and leader of the free world? Exactly what is in his resume that qualifies him?
Oh bull. You have an opinion. I have a different one.
Deal with it, I have.
Thanks for the comments Kevmo. That’s interesting.
If that's what it is, would there be any reason people shouldn't take his money?
I agree, a two man race. The voters want somebody who has actually run something. And Arkansas doesen’t count.
I am openly questioning every potential candidate and have stated repeatedly on this forum (and others) that in the end I will vote for the Republican nominee whoever that may be.
But to the point: Fred Thompson has simply not distinguished himself. And there's nothing in his very brief resume that speaks to why he would be a good president, a good leader, a good statesman, an enforcer of our Constitution, a protector of our borders, and a good steward of our resources both natural and financial.
Wednesday update. It is looking more and more like a two man race. Fred's fall continues, he is now in 6th place.
Standing beside him, a deadpan Mr Thompson interjected: “And so do I.”
Game, Set, Match.
Whomever you are, you apparently have no sense of humor.
Good thinking ... bad conclusion. When you factor in the bad campaign Thompson is running and the excellent campaign Romney is running there is one conclusion: Romney will win.
“Laughable. Fred makes a “blunder” about abortion and Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control, and thrice-married, yet he leading the race and gets the endorsement of Pat Robertson.”
Ahem, that should be a sign of how badly Fred Thompson has blown it!! Back in June the SoCons were looking for the man on the white horse to sweep them away. Fred was riding high as the unannounced candidate, nearly with Rudy in national polls *before* jumping in.
Fred could have been IT, except:
1. Didnt go along with Federal Marriage Amendment.
2. Gets exposed that he did some lobbying work for pro-abort , and that he was squishy on campaign trail on abortion (BFD, long time ago), yet his record was prolife (ok, back on track)
3. Not for HLA (hardcore folks get off the bus)
4. Support for McCain-Feingold is an issue, but on Laura’s show in early Sept, flubs his defense of it (conservatives grimace at a reminder he’s a McCain-lite)
5. Gets bad reviews on his speeches in Orlando and elsewhere (political pros ask - cant he beat Hillary? - and decide “Nope”)
6. Mentions he got his values at the kitchen table not church (great, Hillary can out-Christian him)
7. Shows up with Tim and not only get caught over-explaining on his non-support for HLA, he throws in a point that is not even relevant and is grating to prolifers, its a pro-abort talking point to raise the spectre of teen pregnant women going to jail! (prolifers shake their heads)
What is the result? While Thompson has his Christian Right supporters, the social conservatives have fractured in confusion.
Romney, who has wooed the conservatives pretty consistently, picked up many endorsements, others who don’t like him or have “Mormon” issues have gone elsewhere:
Wildmon endorses Huckabee
Robertson endorses Rudy (WTF!?!?)
Brownback endorses McCain (okay, pro-amnesty types)
Robert R. Taylor endorses Romney - his comment on Thompson “I dont see the energy there”
Bob Jones III, chancellor of the university, told the Greenville News that he, too, is endorsing Romney. “This is all about beating Hillary [Clinton],” Jones told the newspaper. “And I just believe that this man has the credentials both personally and ideologically in terms of his view about what American government should be to best represent the rank and file of conservative Americans,” he said. “If it turns out to be [Rudy] Giuliani and Hillary we’ve got two pro-choice candidates, and that would be a disaster.” Jones, when asked whether Romney’s Mormon faith was a problem for him, replied: “What is the alternative? Hillary’s lack of religion or an erroneous religion?”
The BOTTOM LINE: Romney is the campaign’s alternative to Rudy. Thompson could have been the alternative, but he made all the wrong moves since June. His positions are wrong to unify the conservatives, his campaign speeches are too dull to energize most supporters, and his campaign was too late (yes, Sept was too late a start) and too slow out of the gate. As a result, he has lost conservative support.
His I’ll do it my way attitude may be endearing to some, to be others, like me, we ask: Why should I want Fred to be President more than Fred wants to be President?
And that, in the end, will be an epitaph on his campaign. Fred Thompson won’t be President. It won’t happen, and he may be just fine with that. I just hope his supporters can deal with it as well.
Latest Rasmussen has Thompson only 1% above Romney.
You wont be able to hang onto even that irrelevent poll as a pro-Fred indicator.
“If this site is very influential”
It’s not. This marketplace is an indicator but it wont help a candidate win Iowa. That’s why the claims that it is gamed are silly. The only people kooky enough to even bother would be Paul supporters ... hey maybe that is why Paul is up there with Thompson.
as of now, the MSM is carrying all Rats, all the time, in every fashion they can think of....
Fred will win the day.....but I'll also support Rudy.....
anyway you look at it, Hitlery is NOT a shoe in.............
Pandering to the wackjob Christian right might have inflated Thompsons early poll numbers. It was pandering to the nutty anti-war left that made Howard Dean look invincible four years ago. But pandering to the extremes wouldn’t have helped Fred win the nomination any more than it helped Dean, and it would have been poison next November. Candidates have to be what they are, trying to be something else hurts them every time.
Which is the problem with Mitt Romney. He is running as something he is not. He may garner endorsements that way, but voters smell a fake. They aren’t going to take five four dollar bills in change for a twenty. In the end, Romney won’t make a serious run at the nomination.
Let’s revisit this conversation in early March. Mitt will be out of the race by then and you can congratulate me on my foresight.
” Pandering to the wackjob Christian right might have inflated Thompsons early poll numbers. “
Bashing a core Republican constituency as ‘wackjob’ surely doesnt help, nor does disdaining or misunderstanding what they support ... an attitude like that puts Thompson on a downtrend and puts those voters into the Huckabee camp (who btw are doing better than Thompson in Iowa). They are not ‘trivial’ as you claim, and if they are, well then, Rudy will have an easier time of it winning.
As for Romney, you have a hard time grasping reality if you think ‘he wont make a serious run’. He is for real, his running hard, he has the best campaign, he is sincere in the conservative agenda items he is proposing. And I believe he will win the nomination and the Presidency.
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