Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)

Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

[Plutarch]

Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.

At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.

At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,

The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .

[supercat]

Here's what I can't stomach at FR: the screeching hypocrites who scream "Flip-flip! Flip-flop! Flip-Flop!" in Romney's case but say, "Fred flip-flop? Nonsense. Why, he's just gotten wiser in recent years" when confronted with the same pattern of changed positions in Fred's case.

If a candidate changes his stated views on various issues because he finds his existing views unpopular, one would be wise to question to sincerity of those changes. On the other hand, when a candidate changes his stated views without such apparent external impetus, such changes would seem more likely to be sincere.

[Politicalmom]

Check this out.

[DoughtyOne]

Kevmo and AuntB, I’m not sure you both understand what is taking place here. I certainly haven’t left the Hunter camp. He is my first choice. I will have to tell you though, that voting for a guy with perhaps 1% to 3% of the vote right now really concerns me.

If we do get to the primary and the polls show Hunter at 5% and Thompson at 30%, do we take a chance splitting the vote between the two of them so that a Giuliani or Romney victory is certain?

This is a very important year. We have to get one of two conservatives nominated. If we don’t, we may spend another eight years languishing in the wilderness.

It’s not with a lot of happiness that I see Hunter at 1 to 3%. I wish he we in the 30-35% range right now. And I give it a lot of thought daily as to how best to get his numbers up.

I hope you folks realize these thoughts are going through many of our minds as we all look forward to the primaries and caucuses this year.

[Kevmo]

Earlier this week I saw evidence that Hunter was at 5% on Intrade, which was why I posted the vanity below. The Bid prices were above 3% and there were no Ask prices, it looked like he could climb above 6% but things have changed since then. It is actually a huge opportunity to make money by buying Hunter futures cheap (he’s at 2% in the play market, 0.1% in the real market), but I’m broke.

As far as I can tell, the Intrade market is the most unbiased indicator of where a candidate stands. It’s not perfect, but it’s not biased.

Duncan Hunter is at 5%. Vanity.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1917686/posts

[Politicalmom]

My indignation came from you saying that Fred’s drop in the polls may have come from this “scandal”.

I repeat, that means that all of the people polled somehow know this big secret, but we don’t. That’s stupid.

Maybe the rumor is about Hunter. Oh, yeah, he isn’t a major candidate.

[Smokin' Joe]

So is Soros selling (dumping ) ‘Fred’ to make him look out of the running?

[Politicalmom]

Why don’t you just lay off the whining and moaning at me.

I didn’t have your priceless post removed.

[balch3]

Soros manipulating the market.

[Petronski]

Nice how you soft-sell scummy behavior as “playing hard ball.”

Duncan Hunter is a good man. He deserves a better class of supporter.

[O6ret]

So it’s Thompson by default? You tell me...what are his credentials?

[Lead Moderator]

A little word of advice. If you value your posting privileges, knock off the unsubstantiated crap.

[Sidebar Moderator]

You can’t have all the posts that bring this up removed. You and your fred follower cohorts didn’t even get these ones removed, and it says the same thing.

I'm curious whether you were so blithe about the unsubstantiated allegations that some Rudy boosters were spreading about Duncan Hunter earlier in the year.

[Sidebar Moderator]

You can’t have all the posts that bring this up removed.

They can't.

But I can.

Until we see a name associated with the scandal, leave it at that - unsubstantiated.

[trisham]

It's frustrating to me that the Hunter/Paul/Huckabee/Tancredo folks can't or won't see through that strategy. By splitting up the conservative vote among several conservative candidates they're handing over the nomination to the man who will be most liberal RINO who has ever ran on the GOP ticket. I realize that Fred isn't as conservative as Hunter or some of the other also-rans. But he's far more so than either Rudy or Mitt, and unlike Hunter and the rest of the field he can win both the nomination and the main event if all the conservatives would just get on board and stop Rudy from walking away with the nomination by a plurality win but without the support of a large segment of the GOP base in the general election. AFAIC that situation would guarantee a Hillary win and the worst of all possible outcomes for the next two presidential terms.

***************

Good analysis. I do hope conservatives recognize that Fred is our best bet in this race. I also think he'd be a better president than any of the other candidates.

[skeeter]

Look it up yourself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Dalton_Thompson