Posted on 10/28/2007 4:48:28 PM PDT by Kevmo
Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.
Anyone can sign up at InTrade, especially in their play money futures contract market.
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
How does Intrade work?
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
The rumor going around is that Intrade is only for foreigners outside of the U.S. due to internet gambling laws. Note that Intrade does not accept credit cards, which could be the source of this rumor. Even if it were true, it would suggest even more of an absence of bias.
For more information on futures contracts markets and their accuracy even with play money, see Popular Science Magazine.
http://ppx.popsci.com/
Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm
Duncan Hunter futures are not available at Iowa yet.
Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php
PPX? What's that? "PPX" stands for "The PopSci Predictions Exchange," a virtual stock market where the stocks are the future of science and technology. Think the iPhone will be the greatest hit since sliced silicon? Buy! Think the International Space Station will never get built? Sell!
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In the tutorial we use this fake proposition as an example: Flux capacitors will go on sale in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2010. If you think this is going to be true, then you would buy the security and watch its value rise. If you don't think its true, then you would short the security and make money as it falls.
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If you short 100 shares of a propostion that's trading at POP$40, you pay POP$4,000 from your cash at the time of the short. If the proposition goes to 0 (meaning it doesnt come true), your position automatically cashes out and you'll get POP$4,000 (your original investment) plus POP$4,000 (your profit which comes from 40 - 0 x 100shares) for a total of POP$8,000 added to your cash balance.
The answer to the proposition I'm interested in won't be decided until 2050. What gives? Long-term propositions are an important part of the market. Even though the exchange in its current form (or the Internet in its, for that matter) may not even be around in 50 years to see a long-term prop finally pay out, you can still profit greatly from trading it because its price will always serve as an indication of whether or not the market thinks the proposition will eventually come true. Take the "Will Androids Defeat a Team of Humans in Soccer by 2050?" proposition as an example. We won't know the answer to this one for quite some time, but if next week, Honda were to demo its humanoid robot ASIMO's amazing new ability to run and kick a soccer ball at the same time, the price of this stock is probably going to jump. And if you're holding shares, you've just made some money.
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Let's say a proposition you're interested in has been fluctuating between POP$50 and POP$75. If you know you want to buy, but only when the price reaches the low end of where it's been fluctuating, you can set a limit order for 100 shares at POP$55. This means that the moment the stock's price drops a penny below POP$55, the market will automatically buy 100 shares of the stock for you. Same goes for selling: If you wanted to sell your shares near the high end, you could set a limit order to sell 100 shares when the price reached POP$70. A limit order's expiration date governs how long it will remain in effect-anywhere from one day to one month.
Do you have a link for Bill Cunningham show? T Anderson is over.
It seems that posters who say Hunter has 1% are making it up.
“..Rep. Duncan Hunter of California received 3 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas received 2 percent, Sen. Brownback of Kansas received 1 percent and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado received 1 percent.”
snip from http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/16/schneider.poll/index.html
And this poll isn’t brand new.
Cunningham likes both Hunter and Huckabee because of the social issues, I believe. I don’t think Cunningham is aware how Huckabee is so soft on ILLEGAL immigration.
A guy called the show and said Huckabee raised taxes five times.
And I came across this re: Huckabee:
January 28, 2005
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee Calls Immigration Reform Legislation Racist, Un-Christian
http://www.hyscience.com/archives/2005/01/arkansas_govern.php
I am a Christian, and very pro-life, and am against ILLEGAL immigration for all nationalities. I resent being called a racist.
Huckabee is like President Bush, I’d say.
Cuningham’s show is over now, too.
He can be heard on Sundays from 10 PM - 1 AM on wabcradio.com (Drudge’s old slot)
I heard Cunningham gets one million listeners, so that’s how many you can reach if you can get thru to his show.
I tried myself, but got a busy signal. Maybe if I try to call the show right at 10 PM I’ll have a better chance.
I really hate to call talk shows, but force myself to, for my country’s sake.
Good for you! I have tried calling Rush’s show on numerous occasions but could never get through. If I ever do get through, I will be so nervous. I want to get in a plug for Duncan Hunter, no matter what the subject. My opening will be “Rush, Duncan Hunter for president dittos!” I practiced saying it over and over again.LOL
I did go to the wabc link after I posted to you and found out that Cunningham was over.
It, for me, goes beyond the mere “fair weather” support for candidates. What really perplexes me is the “fair weather” friends of conservative beliefs, issues and core principles.
Are they so easily fooled or are they so pure of heart that they are just trusting to a fault? Perhaps it is that they are so weak of character that they can rationalize forfeiting core beliefs and principles to be associated with a perceived winner?
For example, after a few focus groups and some voter polling I suppose; Fred has went from “Mr. Some Aspirations of Citizenship” to a detailed plan on immigration. I just hope they script it for him where he can lay it out at the debates. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you stand on a certain issue. I just don’t understand the thinking process of some I suppose.
If I understand or not, it still seems they (the electorate) are willing, once again, to trust, what these posturing, polling panderers are saying, just like they always have. They ignore history and reason and trust the new “Road to the Presidency” converts and then are surprised and pi$$ and moan when they are burned by them. Time after time, election after election, on it goes and it seems nothing is ever learned.
I hear ya! It perplexes me when someone says, “I have to wait and see what his position on ____ is before I will support him. As if the candidates past record doesn’t count for anything. People are swayed by flowery words without any regard as to IF the candidate even means what he says. It doesn’t matter to them, just saying it is all it takes.
I support Duncan Hunter without any worries about what his intentions are. He is the same today as he has been for the last 27 yrs in the house. His record and consistency speaks for itself. Those other yahoos can just kiss my @$$.
I feel better!:)
Your opening line alone is impressive!
Even if you can’t get in with Rush, try a local, or smaller talk show, and it’s also good practice. :)
Calling talk shows when they first start increases your chances of getting on.
Makes no sense really, but...
It is irrelevant whether he is at 1% or 5%, until you guys solve the riddle of why he has not moved much despite being in the race for months and being the “ideal” conservative, nothing will come of it. You have to win the vote of a wide variety of people in the Republican camp. You have to stand out.
Ironic, the very guy who has a shot and represents more of Hunters ideals than anyone else is the guy you guys are hitting the most it seems.
***You mean, like trying to knock him down? Not even close. My post was pointing out simple facts from the same unbiased type of sources that I’m promoting in this thread.
Yet in this very thread I see more folks lamenting a Rudy or Romney win.
***Oh, well. You might want to take it up with those who lament.
It is irrelevant whether he is at 1% or 5%,
***Thanks! I’ve been wondering when the bar would be raised. When he gets to 5%, the bar will be 10%. When he gets to 10% it will be 30%. We’re pushing the candidate who would make the best president, thank you, and we don’t care that much about polls that are biased.
until you guys solve the riddle of why he has not moved much despite being in the race for months and being the “ideal” conservative, nothing will come of it.
***He is moving. This thread is evidence of it.
You have to win the vote of a wide variety of people in the Republican camp. You have to stand out.
***When there is a vote, we hope to win it. Until then, all these biased polls don’t mean much to us. We’re not even yet in the PRIMARIES. I think we can see some real results in the numbers at Intrade and it explains why Fred Followers have been bashing Hunter threads — they’re more afraid of him than the supposed 1% represents. I was never afraid of Tommy Thompson, never even once bothered to log onto one of his threads. Why? Because he really was a 1%er.
So, if Hunter really is a 1%er, go ahead and buy his futures at 1% and I’ll buy them from you at 1.1% to guarantee you a 10% rate of return in ONE DAY. But you can’t get Hunter at 1%.
As far “afraid” of Duncan, not really. I do respect him, but for whatever reason he has not gained a foothold even in Conservative strongholds. If he does fine, that will be a good thing, though since he seems to come across more like an ideologue than anything else, it maybe an issue in the wider market. That may also explain his traction issue.
I do respect him, but for whatever reason he has not gained a foothold even in Conservative strongholds.
***I suppose by that you mean CPAC. And yes, that is a mystery to me. What would be your threshold? At what point would you say that Duncan Hunter has gained enough ground that you can stand behind him? Because that is the language of modern “conservatism” : poll numbers and bandwagon jumping and figuring out what others are going to do before you make a commitment, rather than looking at the issues and the character of the man. Every time we get someone on a Hunter thread that only argues that he doesn’t have high poll numbers, that’s like telling a crowd of Formula1 fans that they can’t even drive the car on a road. It has no meaning to them. And when the Formula1 fans turn around and say that it’s the fastest race car in its horsepower class, they’re not speaking the language of the street car fans. In our analogy, that’s the equivalent of the Hunter fans pointing out how great he is on the issues, how his track record reflects his true viewpoints rather than as a conversion on the road to Des Moines, that kind of thing. The problem here is that this is a formula1 website. So, when the street racers come onto the formula1 website and tear down a forumula1 car/driver, they are being basically rude and also their formula1 credibility is now open to question.
“Where does the money come from?”
From those idiots that laid a bet for Rudy.
What "real market" are you referring to? At Intrade (real money), Hunter is at 0.1 ask with no open bids, last trade at 0.1, and hasn't closed above 1.0 since March.
Hunter is at 0.1 ask with no open bids, last trade at 0.1, and hasn’t closed above 1.0 since March.
***That’s not the ask price. It’s the default that it goes down to when there’s no activity. I saw several ask prices above 2 and 3 percent over the last couple of weeks, no close. If I had the money I’d just go in and buy at whatever the current price is, but I don’t have the money.
Current price on the play market is 2.0
Order Book
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
BID
Qty Price
ASK
Price Qty
2.0 5479
2.2 4564
2.5 500
4.0 10009
5.0 6400
The chart says differently, just clink on the Hunter link. He's been mired at 0.1 since early July. It doesn't matter what the "ask" price is if no one will bid it. For example, as of this posting, there's 100 shares offered at 16.4, but why buy that when you can get 402 shares at 0.1?
It's easier to bet on a longshot when you aren't putting real money behind it. It also shows as one of the most active today, which may indicate manipulation, as there's no "news" reason for sudden interest in Hunter.
I’ll care about the polls on election day. Until then, the perception-creators can stuff it. I think Hunter is going to surprise a lot of people. And I’d pay money to listen to the Tim Russerts, Dick Morrises, and Chris Matthews of this world have to sit around and figure out where this “Hunter surge” came from...
Stating Hunter is not doing well in the polls here in these forums, on this “Formula 1” site, is not always to bash him, but to try and understand why. However in light of another team, it also means we have another car to race with, so the whys are not that pressing.
Think about it...
There’s been activity for a week at 2%.
A couple of weeks ago I couldn’t get anything below 3% on the play market.
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