Posted on 10/28/2007 4:48:28 PM PDT by Kevmo
Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.
Anyone can sign up at InTrade, especially in their play money futures contract market.
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
How does Intrade work?
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
The rumor going around is that Intrade is only for foreigners outside of the U.S. due to internet gambling laws. Note that Intrade does not accept credit cards, which could be the source of this rumor. Even if it were true, it would suggest even more of an absence of bias.
For more information on futures contracts markets and their accuracy even with play money, see Popular Science Magazine.
http://ppx.popsci.com/
Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm
Duncan Hunter futures are not available at Iowa yet.
Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php
PPX? What's that? "PPX" stands for "The PopSci Predictions Exchange," a virtual stock market where the stocks are the future of science and technology. Think the iPhone will be the greatest hit since sliced silicon? Buy! Think the International Space Station will never get built? Sell!
Register here to join the PPX. It's fast and free, and we promise we won't give away your personal info to anyone else. Everyone starts with $250,000 PopDollars, the currency of the PopSci Predictions Exchange. You can then invest some or all of your money into one of the many FutureStocks we offer. Some FutureStock predictions relate to long term events, and others are happening this month or this year. There are lots to choose from, and we're offering new propositions all the time.
In the tutorial we use this fake proposition as an example: Flux capacitors will go on sale in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2010. If you think this is going to be true, then you would buy the security and watch its value rise. If you don't think its true, then you would short the security and make money as it falls.
What does "short" and "cover" mean? You know the maxim "Buy low, sell high"? Well, if you think the price of a proposition will go down, not up, you can "short" that prop and make money as it falls. Here's how it works: When you short a prop, you borrow shares and sell them to another buyer. Eventually you must repay, or "cover," the shares you've borrowed, by buying more shares at the new (and hopefully lower) price and returning those shares to the lender. Your net profit is the difference in price between the shares when you "short" them and when you "cover" them. So not only can you buy low and sell high, you can short high and cover low.
If you short 100 shares of a propostion that's trading at POP$40, you pay POP$4,000 from your cash at the time of the short. If the proposition goes to 0 (meaning it doesnt come true), your position automatically cashes out and you'll get POP$4,000 (your original investment) plus POP$4,000 (your profit which comes from 40 - 0 x 100shares) for a total of POP$8,000 added to your cash balance.
The answer to the proposition I'm interested in won't be decided until 2050. What gives? Long-term propositions are an important part of the market. Even though the exchange in its current form (or the Internet in its, for that matter) may not even be around in 50 years to see a long-term prop finally pay out, you can still profit greatly from trading it because its price will always serve as an indication of whether or not the market thinks the proposition will eventually come true. Take the "Will Androids Defeat a Team of Humans in Soccer by 2050?" proposition as an example. We won't know the answer to this one for quite some time, but if next week, Honda were to demo its humanoid robot ASIMO's amazing new ability to run and kick a soccer ball at the same time, the price of this stock is probably going to jump. And if you're holding shares, you've just made some money.
What's a limit order? A limit order is a way to automatically buy or sell a given number of shares of a proposition based on its price, allowing you to make smart trades at the right strategic moment without having to keep an eye glued to the market at all times.
Let's say a proposition you're interested in has been fluctuating between POP$50 and POP$75. If you know you want to buy, but only when the price reaches the low end of where it's been fluctuating, you can set a limit order for 100 shares at POP$55. This means that the moment the stock's price drops a penny below POP$55, the market will automatically buy 100 shares of the stock for you. Same goes for selling: If you wanted to sell your shares near the high end, you could set a limit order to sell 100 shares when the price reached POP$70. A limit order's expiration date governs how long it will remain in effect-anywhere from one day to one month.
It seems that CINO people are resigned to whatever the MSM tells them, so they don’t have to think for themselves. They don’t have to do any legwork and they sure can complain about everything under the sun and everything not going their way. I don’t really care what any poll says, increasingly, I have become angry that my fellow so-called “conservatives” are just drinking the Kool-Aid. MSM says “top tier” so that is what they complain about. How about an excellent solution to that nonsense?
Want a Reagan conservative to be the next POTUS? DUNCAN HUNTER. Look it up.
Me too and Hunter will prove that he is the best candidate.
Likewise.
Where does the money come from?
***The money comes from all the other players who put their money where their mouth was (and lost). The way I see it, it’s like a poker hand.
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
Raster, I clicked on your link you emailed earlier of Hunter on This Week and didn’t get anything. All the other links worked fine. Thanks!
You sound like Pauline Kael.
It looks like Thompson is slipping also, in the eyes of those people who put their money where their mouth is.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1917514/posts?page=132#132
“I’ve been called everything from a troll, to just stupid. The way I see it is that I’m warning people and giving them a chance to avert disaster. If they don’t perceive the danger though, there’s nothing I can do. I won’t compromise principles again.”
Well, let me add my own personal paranoia. I spent 30 years in California. (76-2006) I watched it turn from paradise into a toilet......entirely due to illegal immigration. What many Americans don’t understand is that this is beginning to happen all over America, and another open borders RINO will finish us off. We won’t need al queda because we will have lost our country with nary a shot fired.
What many Americans don’t understand is that this is beginning to happen all over America, and another open borders RINO will finish us off. We won’t need al queda because we will have lost our country with nary a shot fired.
***I think there are many americans starting to see this, but they are quiet about it and they’re also susceptible to media-fed guilt. When GWB called all of us “bigots”, they probably retracted because of the hypersensitivity of Political Correctness. The key to breaking through is revealed in what happened here in liberal Kahleefornya (I’m still here) when Prop 187 passed. Right up to the day it was voted on, the media was calling its supporters bigots and claiming it was at 30% in the polls — but it won by a wide margin. Those same americans who are queasy about being called bigots know that they are not bigots and will pull the right lever when they see the media Jump the Shark.
That’s why I pointed out the wide discrepancy in the play market. I saw a while ago that there were bid prices above 2 and 3 % in the real market, but they never met the ask prices. Go ahead, buy Duncan Hunter at 1% in the real market if you can. I’d be happy to buy it from you at 1.1% the next day, guaranteed 10% return in one day — just let me check with my wife first.
But you won’t get them at 1%.
“Those same americans who are queasy about being called bigots know that they are not bigots and will pull the right lever when they see the media Jump the Shark.”
A little study will reveal the racism primarily emanates from the illegals, their racist orgs. like La Raza, and their enablers. When you see them partying on the weekend in the San Fernando Valley, standing on the streetcorners(Van Nuys) waving Mexican flags, and flipping off white people who happen to drive by, you get a different perspective.
I’ve watched Hunter for a lot of years. I was waiting for him to make the leap. I’m in for the long haul.
I’m in it for the long haul, too. I am not a fair weather supporter. I don’t take polls to see what I should do and I don’t follow polls to know who I should support. I am dismayed at the number of people who do base their decisions on polls. To me, that is such a moderate/liberal thing to do.
Thanks for that encouraging news! We strong Hunter supporters don’t worry about polls, but since many do, this will be like a shot in the arm, and will encourage more conservatives to support Hunter.
Thanks again!
What a night! I’m listening to Bill Cunningham, and there were THREE pro-Duncan Hunter calls.
We grass roots folks love Duncan Hunter. We killed the amnesty bill, and we can get Duncan Hunter elected!!!!
Cunningham said he was going to have Hunter on his show either next week or the week after.
That’s great news, I am listening to the Terry ANderson show right now, he loves Duncan Hunter too. Had him on the show a few weeks ago.
Dang, I missed that. I had never heard of this Cunningham guy until last week when he was going on and on about Hucksterbee. I’ll find his information and send some emails now that I know his name. Thanks!!
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