Posted on 10/28/2007 4:48:28 PM PDT by Kevmo
Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.
Anyone can sign up at InTrade, especially in their play money futures contract market.
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
How does Intrade work?
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
The rumor going around is that Intrade is only for foreigners outside of the U.S. due to internet gambling laws. Note that Intrade does not accept credit cards, which could be the source of this rumor. Even if it were true, it would suggest even more of an absence of bias.
For more information on futures contracts markets and their accuracy even with play money, see Popular Science Magazine.
http://ppx.popsci.com/
Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm
Duncan Hunter futures are not available at Iowa yet.
Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php
PPX? What's that? "PPX" stands for "The PopSci Predictions Exchange," a virtual stock market where the stocks are the future of science and technology. Think the iPhone will be the greatest hit since sliced silicon? Buy! Think the International Space Station will never get built? Sell!
Register here to join the PPX. It's fast and free, and we promise we won't give away your personal info to anyone else. Everyone starts with $250,000 PopDollars, the currency of the PopSci Predictions Exchange. You can then invest some or all of your money into one of the many FutureStocks we offer. Some FutureStock predictions relate to long term events, and others are happening this month or this year. There are lots to choose from, and we're offering new propositions all the time.
In the tutorial we use this fake proposition as an example: Flux capacitors will go on sale in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2010. If you think this is going to be true, then you would buy the security and watch its value rise. If you don't think its true, then you would short the security and make money as it falls.
What does "short" and "cover" mean? You know the maxim "Buy low, sell high"? Well, if you think the price of a proposition will go down, not up, you can "short" that prop and make money as it falls. Here's how it works: When you short a prop, you borrow shares and sell them to another buyer. Eventually you must repay, or "cover," the shares you've borrowed, by buying more shares at the new (and hopefully lower) price and returning those shares to the lender. Your net profit is the difference in price between the shares when you "short" them and when you "cover" them. So not only can you buy low and sell high, you can short high and cover low.
If you short 100 shares of a propostion that's trading at POP$40, you pay POP$4,000 from your cash at the time of the short. If the proposition goes to 0 (meaning it doesnt come true), your position automatically cashes out and you'll get POP$4,000 (your original investment) plus POP$4,000 (your profit which comes from 40 - 0 x 100shares) for a total of POP$8,000 added to your cash balance.
The answer to the proposition I'm interested in won't be decided until 2050. What gives? Long-term propositions are an important part of the market. Even though the exchange in its current form (or the Internet in its, for that matter) may not even be around in 50 years to see a long-term prop finally pay out, you can still profit greatly from trading it because its price will always serve as an indication of whether or not the market thinks the proposition will eventually come true. Take the "Will Androids Defeat a Team of Humans in Soccer by 2050?" proposition as an example. We won't know the answer to this one for quite some time, but if next week, Honda were to demo its humanoid robot ASIMO's amazing new ability to run and kick a soccer ball at the same time, the price of this stock is probably going to jump. And if you're holding shares, you've just made some money.
What's a limit order? A limit order is a way to automatically buy or sell a given number of shares of a proposition based on its price, allowing you to make smart trades at the right strategic moment without having to keep an eye glued to the market at all times.
Let's say a proposition you're interested in has been fluctuating between POP$50 and POP$75. If you know you want to buy, but only when the price reaches the low end of where it's been fluctuating, you can set a limit order for 100 shares at POP$55. This means that the moment the stock's price drops a penny below POP$55, the market will automatically buy 100 shares of the stock for you. Same goes for selling: If you wanted to sell your shares near the high end, you could set a limit order to sell 100 shares when the price reached POP$70. A limit order's expiration date governs how long it will remain in effect-anywhere from one day to one month.
Personally I don’t care where his poll numbers are. I got over worrying about that type of thing when I left middle school. I’m proud to be a Hunter supporter.
Links didn’t come out right.
Intrade Play Market
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
How does Intrade work?
https://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html
Popular Science Magazine.
http://ppx.popsci.com/
Iowa Electronic Markets was the first futures exchange.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm
Popular Science futures market faq: http://ppx.popsci.com/help/faq.php
ditto
Al Gore to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008
Last Price: 8.6
John Edwards to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008
Last Price: 5.1
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
Life lo/hi 0.1 - 2.5
Last Price 0.1
I guess I don’t know how to read Intrade. Could you please explain how these numbers pasted from the site relate to the initial post?
When there’s been no activity, the price drops down to essentially zero.
The latest activity on the play market shows the ask price at 4%, bid price at 0.5%, no middle ground transactions.
http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 0.5 4.0 0.5 172525 +0.1
“Even if Hunter dies, I’d vote for him before Rudy McRomney.”
No kidding : )
Everybody I know favors Duncan Hunter over Romney or Guliani, with Huckabee second amongst many.
Relates to nothing, but I love your tag line!! :)
I posted this vanity so that we might have a way to counter the continual nonsense about Hunter only being at 1%.
And why do these guys waste their time on a supposed 1%er anyways? Because they know that he’s got more of a following than the MSM polls generate in their biased approach.
clinton was at about 110% vanity when he was elected.
On all the websites that let you choose the candidate by your views on issues....Duncan Wins! Hunter is the best on the issues, now we’ve just got to get through the media blackout.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1915780/posts
Like Online Dating Sites, The Web Matches Voters, Presidential Candidates
Tancredo landed just behind the top conservative match, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif.[snip]
This survey also has Hunter on top. When issues and votes are considered, Hunter comes out ahead.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/projects/ongoing/select_a_candidate/poll.php?race_id=13
“I’m proud to be a Hunter supporter.”
Me too!! singing “I’m proud to be a Hunter guy from Dakota do do do, do do do “ :)
“I posted this vanity so that we might have a way to counter the continual nonsense about Hunter only being at 1%.”
They only bring that up because that is all they’ve got, poor devils.
My 13 year old nephew took that test and he found out his perfect candidate is Duncan Hunter. He asked his dad(my brother, “who is Duncan Hunter?” My brother told him he is who your uncle(me) says is the best man running and we should vote for him! :)
And Duncan Hunter will continue to climb! Go Hunter:)
Maybe you can help me understand this.
If I buy a Hunter contract for 5% or $.50 and I sell it at 75%, I have made $7 from the buying trader.
What happens if I hold onto the contract and Hunter wins the Presidency(I believe I would make $9.5). Where does the money come from?
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