Thompson Tied for First in National Poll; Giuliani in Free Fall

All American Patriots ^ | October 25, 2007

[2ndDivisionVet]

While Fred Thompson travels the nation with his message of consistent conservatism and touts his border security and immigration reform proposal, a recent national tracking poll shows that Thompson has pulled into a virtual tie with Rudolph Giuliani. This poll further shows that Giuliani has lost almost a third of his support in the last 12 days.

In a separate Field Poll conducted in California, Giuliani's "support has eroded markedly among the party faithful, setting up the prospect of a shootout in February's primary," wrote the San Francisco Chronicle, dropping 10 points since August.

Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll showed Giuliani and Thompson both statistically tied with Hillary in a head-to-head matchup in Ohio.

[Mr Apple]

Go Fred Go!

[Spiff]

One, this isn't a news, but a weak blog posting. It doesn't even really mention which poll to which it is referring. I assume, because it later mentions it, that the blog posts first statements are referring to the latest Rasmussen polls. But that's not a safe assumption, really, because what is being said by the blogger doesn't match the actual Rasmussen data.

This is the chart I put together based upon Rasmussen's daily tracking polls since the beginning of September. The blog poster got it right that Rudy is in "free fall", but fails to mention Thompson's own free fall since just after his announcement, dropping about 8-9 points compared to Giuliani's 9-10 point drop. Yes, Giuliani's is more pronounced as it happened in a shorter period with little fluctuation. But the result is still the same. Giuliani's fast drop was preceded by an even briefer and greater rise in his level of support too. And that has to be taken into consideration, obviously.

All in all, this blog posting was crap.

[Condor51]

**** FOX has Rooty by 20... ***

Whoopee. FNC has taken a dive for Rooty.
Today they're pimping 'the mob wanted to whack him so he must be tough, blah, blah, blah....

(rumor has it that next week Rooty and Sean Vanity are getting an apartment together.)

[trisham]

No land-line here. I also have a non-pub number.

[RockinRight]

I would say that while Rudy is still leading overall, Fred and Mitt have a decent shot. Not a shoo-in...but both men have a chance.

People thought “for sure” it would be McCain in 2000. It was also “for sure” that it would be Dean or Clark in 2004.

[Grams A]

Has anybody heard the fat lady sing yet?

[RockinRight]

It looks like they’re ALL dropping.

So where is the support going?

[2ndDivisionVet]

"Let me repeat myself... I don't understand all this. Rudy may not be the perfect ideological candidate, but he can, and likely will win. I greatly admire Duncan Hunter, but he has no chance! None! Neither does Ron Paul (thank God), or Tancredo or Fred or Romney. I'm talking both primaries and general election. Face it guys, it going to be Hillary versus Rudy, and there's not even a decision to make over that. Hillary is certain death for this country. Rudy is the "half a loaf is better than none" that I remember my mom telling me about when I didn't get everything I wanted when I was 5. I've been a Freeper since about 2000, but some of you guys need to start breathing oxygen again.

Open letter from Rudy Tooters to conservatives Posted on 10/12/2007 2:38:21 PM CDT by Jim Robinson If you will just agree to the murdering of your children, then we can win the presidency. Sincerely, Rudy Tooter http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1910430/posts

[johnny7]

(rumor has it that next week Rooty and Sean Vanity are getting an apartment together.)

Not that hard to imagine... I can't stand listening to Hannity anymore.

[trisham]

Good question.

[Spiff]

It looks like they’re ALL dropping. So where is the support going?

Rasmussen only tracks the top four. Their results don't show Huckabee, for example. Which is where I suspect a lot of the support is going to.

[Josh Painter]

Rasmussen is not cherry-picking, Loyal Buckeye. Scott Rasmussen simply uses a different methodology. The other polls survey “all voters,” while Rasmussen polls “likely voters.”

The result is that Rasmussen’s polls are more accurate and therefore more predictive than the others. As they brag on their website:

“Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, ‘One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com.’ And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, ‘In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.’”

“Rasmussen Reports was also the nation’s most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry’s vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.”

“During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.”

[RockinRight]

Ah yes the guy who thinks he should regulate children’s diets and smokers while letting illegals flood in like water.

Yup...that be the guy.

[painter]

I was polled last week. I suspect Rasmussen. Three specfic questions. 1.Am I an active Republican.Yes 2. Who do I support for president.Fred Thompson. 3. If your first choice doesn’t make it. Who would be your second choice? I choose Mitt.

[halley]

I profoundly disagree with murdering the unborn, and I realize that Rudy is weak on this issue. But clearly, if we abidcate any chance of victory by this shrewd strategy...

I beg to differ. There is a choice of writing in Micky Mouse or leaving the presidential race as an undervote. 54 posted on 10/26/2007 9:53:39 AM EDT by Ingtar

...we are just condemning more unborn murder and a world of pain and misery to our children and grandchildren.

The charts and graphs about Fred are just a pipedream... I like Fred, but it's not going to happen

Rudy is right on many of the issues, including the most important ones... American sovereignty and security

[Mr Apple]

Fred in ‘08.

[KC_Conspirator]

Its a California Field Poll, which is horrendously wrong almost all the time. This same poll famously declared a big win by Bustamate over Arnold, which we all know did not evne come close to happening.

[CommerceComet]

If you look at the tread lines in this data, over that almost two-month period, everyone except Fred is holding steady. Thompson’s numbers have been steadily declining, the trend line is modestly downward. As a Thompson supporter, I find that somewhat concerning. It is still early in the process, but Fred needs to make a splash somewhere, sometime fairly soon.

[RockinRight]

Nobody is realistically saying Fred’s got this “in the bag...” but methinks you have an agenda in the way you deny that a guy in SECOND PLACE has no chance at all.

[Politicalmom]

He is NOT “right” on security and sovereignty, given his illegal-coddling history.