It looks like they’re ALL dropping.
So where is the support going?
Good question.
Rasmussen only tracks the top four. Their results don't show Huckabee, for example. Which is where I suspect a lot of the support is going to.
Probably right here...
Rudy Giuliani remains precariously atop the pack with support from 20% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide. Fred Thompson is close behind at 19% while John McCain enjoys a second straight day in third place with 14% of the vote. Huckabee continues to gain ground and is just two points behind McCain at 12%. This is the first time all year that Huckabee has surpassed Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts Governor slipped another point and he is now at just 11% nationally. No other Republican attracts more than 3% support while 18% are undecided.
"Undecided" is the number three candidate.
I think they want to hear more from the candidates. Most of the 2nd tier are very conservative and will link with Fred when their fav drops. Which they need some serious Come-to-Jesus sessions within the next 45 days. This nation can NOT afford to have the pubies nominate Julie-Annie. The Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes support plus 1/3 of the undecided will wrap the game. Apparently Rudith is as low as he is going to go (no pun intended).
Now, the undecided. I said IF they go with an even split. I don't see them hanging with Mitt and Juan does not have near the distance between the election and his sellout to the nation with "comprehensive immigration reform" ie, amnesty. Too much of a hot issue in CA. So, I think that in his group (Republican primary voters) about 2/3 of the undecided will go with Fred. This would result in something like the following just before the primary.
Fred at 34%
Rudy at 22%
Mike at 16%
John at 14%
Mitt at 10%
Othr at 3%
just speculation but given current trends and the second tier drops in a reasonable time frame for their supporters to show up in enough polls to get the numbers right.
Thompson’s number did drop but he seems to have stabilized, for the moment, at around 20%.
As for the others I’d say Romney has lost support to Huckabee. And Rudy has lost support to McCain.
Personally, If I’m Fred I take advantage of his fairly stable 20% minus or plus a couple and make a play for the large number of undecideds that place third in this poll while Rudy/mcCain spar off for the moderate/Liberal wing and Romney/Huckabee spar over part of the social conservatives.