[Spiff]

One, this isn't a news, but a weak blog posting. It doesn't even really mention which poll to which it is referring. I assume, because it later mentions it, that the blog posts first statements are referring to the latest Rasmussen polls. But that's not a safe assumption, really, because what is being said by the blogger doesn't match the actual Rasmussen data.

This is the chart I put together based upon Rasmussen's daily tracking polls since the beginning of September. The blog poster got it right that Rudy is in "free fall", but fails to mention Thompson's own free fall since just after his announcement, dropping about 8-9 points compared to Giuliani's 9-10 point drop. Yes, Giuliani's is more pronounced as it happened in a shorter period with little fluctuation. But the result is still the same. Giuliani's fast drop was preceded by an even briefer and greater rise in his level of support too. And that has to be taken into consideration, obviously.

All in all, this blog posting was crap.

[RockinRight]

It looks like they’re ALL dropping.

So where is the support going?

[CommerceComet]

If you look at the tread lines in this data, over that almost two-month period, everyone except Fred is holding steady. Thompson’s numbers have been steadily declining, the trend line is modestly downward. As a Thompson supporter, I find that somewhat concerning. It is still early in the process, but Fred needs to make a splash somewhere, sometime fairly soon.

[Spiff]

The Rasmussen chart has just been updated and reflects the results released today. All previous posts of the chart will be automatically updated too.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Better check Rasmussen again, Spiff. Fred is within the margin of error with Rudy. This isn't from a blog, per se, and although it's from a Fred08 press release, they are referring to Rasmussen's weekly rather than the daily that I think you're referencing. I feel justified posting this, since it shows that the more the public learns about Rudy Giuliani, the less they like (especially likely GOP voters).

[Josh Painter]

Ah, but if you go to the Rasmussen Reports website, you see that the results are:

RudyG: 20%
FredT: 19%
JohnM: 14%
MikeH: 12%
MittR: 10%

The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence, which puts Rudy and Fred in a statistical tie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Also, the trend for the last two weeks is:

Date..FT....RG...MR...JM....MH
10/26 19% 20% 10% 14% 12%
10/25 19% 21% 12% 14% 10%
10/24 18% 22% 15% 14% 9%
10/23 19% 23% 15% 14% 9%
10/22 19% 24% 16% 12% 8%
10/21 19% 24% 15% 11% 8%
10/20 20% 23% 14% 11% 8%
10/19 21% 24% 14% 11% 8%
10/18 19% 25% 14% 11% 9%
10/17 21% 27% 14% 10% 7%
10/16 21% 30% 13% 10% 7%
10/15 23% 29% 13% 9% 8%
10/14 22% 30% 14% 8% -%
10/13 18% 30% 14% 10% -%
10/12 18% 28% 14% 10% 6%
10/11 18% 29% 15% 10% 6%
10/10 17% 27% 16% 11% 6%

FredT is right at his statistical mean for the time period.
RudyG has dropped 10 points in 13 days.
MittR is at his lowest point since September 13.
JohnM is at his highest point since September 23.
MikeH is at his highest point ever.

My take:

The poll roughly reflects events over the past couple of weeks. With two good debate performances, Fred has held his own, despite continuous negative media spin. His campaign’s efforts to define Rudy and Mitt as less than conservative are beginning to pay off.

John and Mike are profiting at the expense of Mitt and Rudy. Good performances in the two most Recent debates and well-received speeches at the Value Voters Summit have also helped both candidates.

[Ingtar]

Today’s Rasmussen numbers:

Giuliani 20 (-10)
Thompson 19 ( +1)
McCain 14 ( +4)
Huckabee 12 ( +5) (might be +4, his numbers are vague 2 weeks ago)
Romney 11 ( -3)

(for the last two weeks)