Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Nail, meet coffin.
Thank you for reality.
The “Stop Rudy” ping list!
E-mail/ping me if you want on/off the list! SPREAD THE WORD!!!
The truth is out there....if you weed through the lies from the Rudy911 campaign (”We’ll put D.C. and Canada into play!”).
It’s proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy can’t win.
Yep. Either that, or sit it out.
Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton is inviting the decorators into the White House to measure for the new window treatments.
I have given money for 20 years to Dobson et al. It will stop if this foolishness continues.
I will hold my nose if I have to and save as many babies as possible. Not turn the government over to the evil left.
I’d vote for almost any third party candidate over Hillarudy.
That ought to give the pro-life movement a boost---like money in the bank.
Then we’d better be wise and nominate a candidate who won’t split the party, as opposed to being stupid and nominating Rudy911, then demanding that everyone who has sworn that they won’t give up their principles to support Rudy911 do exactly that.
There WILL be a Third Party option if Rudy911 gets the nod. I will be one of those folks working night and day, until I can work no more, making sure it happens.
Any third party of any kind that’s right of center guarantees a Hilary win, of course.
As I keep saying the inadequate republican candidates will be the reason hillary can win
This is the entire purpose of Ron Paul’s candidacy. In order for it to work, Rudy has to get the nomination. When that happens and Paul announces his third-party candidacy (with Chuck Hagel as his running mate) Paul will turn down the volume on the anti-war rhetoric (leaving it to Hagel) and turn up the volume on the pro-life rhetoric.
So far, everything seems to be going exactly according to plan.
Here we go again. Conservative third party puts another Clinton in the White House.
Smart move.
If Fruity’s nominated there WILL be a 3rd party candidate, regardless of what faction of the social conservative movement it represents.
We are not idiots, which is why we cannot have two rabidly Pro-abortion parties - the inevitable and undeniable result of a Rudy911 Presidency.
Heed the meeting from Salt lake City (Search FR for “Values” and read Dobson’s account). I will be one of those giving every ounce of blood to make it happen.
Those pure "conservatives" gave America eight years of Bubba. Good job guys!
(/sarcasm)
You need to face the facts that have been presented here for months, there are a whole bunch of Republicans that will never vote for Rooty!
All the pro gun Dem’s will go back to their default party because they lose any reason to switch their vote for the gun issue.
There is no way that moron could win. If he is nominated the race is over and RATS win!
A Rudy nomination would kill the GOP. Conservatives would have no incentive to work for Rudy. The folks who man the phones and knock on doors, volunteering and passing out campaign literature? That's the conservative base, hello.
I have no intention of supporting Rudy should he win the nomination.
(Hands over ears) "La-la-la, I don't care if Hillary wins, la-la-la..."
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