Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[jonascord]

You might also consider this alternate option: It has been thought that the Soviet arms industry has always developed two models of every weapons system. One, the good one, is for the Red Army, or whatever they are calling the defenders of the Motherland, and the other, the "Monkey Model" for export. Monkey models are simpler, more robust, and WAY less capable, that the Kremlin can give to the Third World.

The whole idea of a "Monkey" version raises another question. What if the idea of a substandard version of Soviet equipment for export is a cover for the fact that all Russian armor and aircraft is simply junk, suitable only for target practice when the shooting war starts? NATO would never admit that they far outclass the Red Army, for to do so would remove the reason for buying the latest new toys.

[shield]

I read something on this but the source is questionable...DEBKAfile

[nuconvert]

Thanks Shield.
The other thing that Wheeler leaves out, is that Iran does have older defense technology - British and American from the 70’s - for what that’s worth.

[Salem]

"Most all his articles are password protected...some aren't. Strange...this article is password protected."

If you Google "SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN," you will get an active link to the article on his site, as well as seeing the article is posted at quite a few other blogs in its entirety.

I'm certainly not bucking Mr. Wheeler's reposting demands, but I could have posted the article from any one of these blogs as well. Better that he receives the increased traffic directly than any one of these obscure blogs where it is posted—with no restrictions articulated whatsoever. Wonder how many of them have his permission.

[Stonewall Jackson]

Russian ZSU-23-4 Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Gun

Russian SA-6 Surface-to-Air Missile Launcher

Russia used to have a lot of cutting-edge air-defense technology, like the pictured systems, which are still highly effective against any and all aircraft (including an F-117A Nighthawk over Kosovo in 1999), but the equipment Russia puts out nowadays is nothing more than expensive junk.

China and Russia had both provided Iraq with a lot of equipment to integrate and coordinate the nation's air defense systems just before Operation Iraqi Freedom kicked off and the only thing it did was drain a couple hundred million out of Saddam's coffers.

In a full-scale air assault against either Iran or Syria, we will lose a number of aircraft, but the numbers will likely be far lower than anyone might expect.

[shield]

Boy, when I read this article...I wanted to post it so bad. But since I’m a member I knew I couldn’t. I wanted ALL especially here at FR to read it. Let Dr. Wheeler deal with it...it’s his rules not mine.... I’m happy folks here at FR have gotten to read it...

[arthurus]

It’s that cheap Russian tin foil and plastic with the pretty lights.

[arthurus]

After seeing all the whimsical uses of the quote this is the right time for-

All your base are belong to us!

(smug grin)

[Salem]

"But since I’m a member I knew I couldn’t...."

Understood. I appreciate your great integrity.

The Internet is what it is—wide open. Unless a site like his has all the latest encryption technology and code written as we have discussed, I don't see how he can hope to enforce the type of control you described. It would be an all day affair just to police up all those blogs where the article was posted before here, at Free Republic..  

[arthurus]

Maybe this strike was let the Syrians and Iranians know they’re screwed.

That seems the most likely probable result and may well have been the intention.

[ex-Texan]

*BUMP* !

[arthurus]

There is no checkmate against Jihad until its military capability and economic structure are shattered.It is the nature of Jihad, of fatalism and of Islam.

[shield]

Thanks. The internet is driving the left crazy...they can NO longer hide the truth. And we are now allowed to see how nuts the left really is. That's a good thing.

Wheeler is really a great guy with a great sense of humor. When you become a member...you go to his rules page it's hilarious...it's not like FR...it's wide open. But the agreement I agreed to...is set for me. So...I'll stick to that. He'll have to police his own articles.

[Fitzy_888]

Are they still saying there were Isreali Cammando’s involved? What type of target would require so thurough a destruction? Or, did they bring back a trophy, is it an object, an individual, is it bigger than a bread box? Seriously, an air strike is one thing, but ground forces would require slow lumbering type aircraft, what’s worth that risk?

[MeanWestTexan]

You know, she’s hot, as in Jennifer Garner hot.

But I wouldn’t touch her with someone else’s 10 ft pole.

She’s clearly an evil bitch.

[arthurus]

You KNOW that stealth aircraft were used! Such an op calls for nothing else.

[arthurus]

F15I's with external weapons and auxiliary fuel tanks would look HUGE on radar

Unless radar suppression and its demonstration was one of the points of the exercise.

[Paulus Invictus]

I have a built-in, life-long distrust of anything the Ruskies say or do. They are not our friends and never were. For forty years they did everything they could to defeat us, just short of MAD, and they nearly succeeded, with the infernal, America-hating help from our own commie-loving RATs like the Clintons.

Dubious citizens need to ask: how many Russians died in the attack on their vaunted air defense system in Syria? Have we heard a word from Russia?

[Mr. Mojo]

The Syrians are silent, the Iranians are terrified, and the Russians are mortified. Pooty’s going to have a helluva time finding buyers for crappy Russian hardware now.

[arthurus]

If Basher is, indeed, afflicted by rigor mortis or disassociation of molecules then the rest of the government are busily knifing each other to see who gets to be on top next. That would be one more reason for the silence from Syria. Not only are they Embarrassed but maybe the mouths who make the noise are all dead or trying hard not to be and have no time for wailing.