Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[r9etb]

Russia is in this up to their necks. Iran is no more than a proxy of Russia.

No. Russia is very good at cynically taking advantage of people like the Iranians, and they have a real interest in getting Persian Gulf access through Iran, not to mention they seriously want/need to mess with our strategic position in the region.

But Iran has its own agenda here, and we shouldn't assume otherwise.

[hershey]

Best read in a long, long time. Thanks.

[TexasRepublic]

Now that’s what I call asymmetrical warfare. Syria spent big money for a defense system, compared to what the Israelis spent to sidestep it

[crazydad]

That is what I said earlier. This is a set up to Megido. Watch the east Mother Mary said at Fatima!

[shield]

I hope you got permission from Dr. Wheeler to post this article. If you’re a member you’ve had to sign an agreement with him. A huge part of this agreement is you’ll not pass or post his articles over the net. If you do...he’ll boot you off his site.

[DoughtyOne]

Yes, and born with on the sinister cusp. How’d you know? (:->)=

[txhurl]

So who’s gonna replace Assad? Who’s the heir apparent, his Veep I guess?, if that’s how they handle it over there.

[DocRock]

Bookmark

[SevenofNine]

Damn you score Russian and Syrian arguments LOL!

[Fitzcarraldo]

Other than that, I see nothing from him in the media since before the incursion.

http://www.sana.org/eng/21/2007/09/26/141129.htm

President al-Assad visits Industrial City of Hesyah in Homs

Wednesday, September 26, 2007 - 08:40 PM

HESYAH, HOMS (SANA)- President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday visited industrial and housing city of Hesyah in Syrian central city of Homs, inspecting the projects and steps accomplished since his last visit to this city.

Upon arrival, President al-Assad was briefed by the city's supervisors and officials on a detailed presentation about the situation of the achievements in the city, a work plan to follow up the objective goals and the important steps of administrative developments taken in this work.

President al-Assad inspected the site, designs, departments, public utilities and future expansions where the site became available to be an advanced constructional and industrial compound.

He looked into the latest achievements and progress on the level of investment following adopted procedures and facilities. The number of the Syrian, Arab and foreign investors reached at 375 with investments rating to 30 billions Syrian Pounds.

Later, President al-Assad inspected the 'one window building' and mechanism of its work, touring new factories in the industrial city, including al-Sharq al-Awsat factories for botanical oils and the Middle company for printing and packing, in addition to high-class food company.

The President listened to an explanation of work, facilities and services given by the city's administration for those projects and investors.

President al-Assad affirmed the role of this city in developing the national industrial sector, attracting investors and developing the central region.

He gave directives to remove all obstacles, depending on decentralization, outlining priorities and exerting efforts to complete this city and its expansion in the framework of correct planning and within a determined timetable.

Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Ottri, Homs Governor and a number of Syrian Ministers received President al-Assad upon arrival in the city.

Thawra, Mazen

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks. What is puzzling is what must have taken place here. It sure is strange.

[Fitzcarraldo]

http://www.sana.org/eng/21/2007/09/25/140847.htm

President Assad congratulates swimmer Mualla on unprecedented sports achievement

Tuesday, September 25, 2007 - 01:15 PM

DAMASCUS, (SANA)

President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday congratulated swimmer Firas Mualla on his unprecedented sports achievement by crossing nonstop the distance between Lattakia and Cyprus.

During the meeting, Mualla briefed President al-Assad on the preparations and activities that led to his achievement.

Mualla thanked the President on his generous kindness and interest in all sports.

H.Zein/ Idelbi

[txhurl]

(damn)

[Fitzcarraldo]

http://www.sana.org/eng/21/2007/09/24/140763.htm

President al-Assad underlines Importance of Art and drama in Society

Monday, September 24, 2007 - 08:30 PM

Damascus, (SANA) – President Bashar al-Assad on Monday underlined the importance of art as a message on the national and pan-Arab levels in the political, social and intellectual fields, referring to drama as a basic sector in all domains.

During a meeting with a group of Syrian actors, directors, writers and producers, President al-Assad stressed the necessity of working to keep Syrian drama a continuous work season all year long.

President al-Assad pointed out to the important role of drama in portraying the concerns and aspirations of citizens and the reality of the country in addition to its role in confronting cultural invasion, noting to the need of drama to fulfill its message and role.

President al-Assad later listened to the artists' proposals on the problems and obstacles that hinder their work. The artists also expressed gratitude over the President's initiative to support Syrian drama and the constant attention he gives it.

President al-Assad gave directives to find coordination mechanisms among workers in the field of drama with participation of competent official organizations, which would guarantee the continuing development of drama, raise its level, facilitate its functions and remove obstacles facing it.

H.Sabbagh, Mazen

[Fitzcarraldo]

http://www.sana.org/eng/21/2007/09/24/140762.htm

President al-Assad Congratulates King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on National Day

Monday, September 24, 2007 - 08:20 PM

Damascus, (SANA) – President Bashar al-Assad on Monday sent a congratulation cable to King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al Saud of Saudi Arabia on National day.

In the cable, President al-Assad expressed congratulations and best wishes, on behalf of Syrian people and his name, for King Abdullah and the brotherly people of Saudi Arabia.

H.Sabbagh, Mazen

[Enchante]

"President al-Assad pointed out to the important role of drama in portraying the concerns and aspirations of citizens and the reality of the country in addition to its role in confronting cultural invasion, noting to the need of drama to fulfill its message and role."

ASSAD: We so love Soviet agit-prop that we think the world needs a lot more of it!!

[Fitzcarraldo]

http://www.sana.org/eng/22/2007/09/19/140125.htm

Syria Calls for subjugating Israeli Nuclear Facilitates to International monitoring

Wednesday, September 19, 2007 - 09:25 PM

VIENNA, (SANA) - Director General of the Atomic Energy Commission in Syria Ibrahem Othamn Wednesday called the international community and The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to practice more pressures to force Israel join the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT), warning against the danger of the Israeli nuclear arsenal on the security and peace in the Middle East and region.

In a statement delivered on the behalf of Syrian Arab Republic at the General conference of IAEA, Othman renewed Syria's continuous keenness to free the region from nuclear weapons, reminding of Syria's initiative in this regard.

Othman demanded to subjugate Israeli nuclear facilities to IAEA's monitoring, criticizing the silence of some international sides regarding the Israeli ignorance of international legitimacy resolutions.

In his statement ,Othman underlined the states' right to possess the nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, pointing out to the necessity of IAEA to play an active role to make its missions a success in order to achieve development and prosperity for humanity and serve international peace and security .

Othman hailed the standing cooperation between the Atomic Energy Commission in Syria and IAEA in the technical and scientific rehabilitation in addition to developing safety and protection in the Syrian commission.

Thawra- Mazen

[listenhillary]

Tomorrow he’ll do the ribbon cutting ceremoney for the home for lost puppies and tiny kittens.

[r9etb]

President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday visited industrial and housing city of Hesyah

Dang. Oh, well, I guess my wife would have complained bitterly when Asma insisted on being treated in the manner to which she had become accustomed.

[Charles Martel]

My guess, as a former Navy bilge rat: we stood off the Syrian coast with F-117s (and maybe F-22s) before the raid. A few minutes later, without warning, the Syrians’ vaunted air-defense network sites began mysteriously blowing up, one site at a time. Once the bad guys’ AAD network was blown to pieces by JDAMs launched from our stealth platforms outside of Syrian airspace, the IAF strike team flew through the gaping hole in their coverage and struck the target. (Egress was over “friendly” territory — Turkey — to avoid any AAD we kight have missed.)

It’s just a guess, though.

A pretty solid guess, IMO. Since the first news of this strike leaked out, I've wondered how the Israelis managed such a feat with their F-15s and F-16s. The obvious answer is that they had some help.

Back in '91, a local paper ran an editorial cartoon that stuck in my memory. It showed an Iraqi air-defense radar site, with the radar operator staring at a blank screen, scratching his head. On the roof above sat an F-117, it's pilot grinning from ear to ear.