Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[Enchante]

It would be great if Israel would conduct another quick strike when Assad is visiting some military base, or maybe even just hit a base close to Damascus anytime...... just to give Assad more to think about, and more nightmares, too!!

[LilyBean]

They have their own agenda no doubt. But Russia is part of that agenda. They can’t do the weapons without Russia. And it looks like Russia can’t comply fast enough. Good Old Russia. Always there to supply the enemy. Hell of a great ally Russia is.

[SevenofNine]

TOO FUNNY that be funny if turn out be Syrians discover they got bad Russia gear LOL!

[Lazamataz]

Check this out.

The best Russian systems are worse than junk.

[omega4179]

That is called virtual stealth I think, the rafale has such a thing

[DoughtyOne]

I do like the idea of that. And yes, it would be a real hoot.

[txhurl]

But will he attend any bass tournaments on the Euphrates for the next year or two? Doubtful.

[r9etb]

So who’s gonna replace Assad? Who’s the heir apparent, his Veep I guess?, if that’s how they handle it over there.

That's one of their problems. Bashir Assad inherited the job from his father, and it apparently didn't sit all that well. His position is supposedly pretty weak.

If Assad ever does get deposed, or dies, I'd expect a power struggle, followed by a military dictatorship. JMO....

[Salem]

"Say what you want about this president...but he has THIS stuff figured out."

I think you are right.  

[Salem]

"I'm sure this will be a huge factor in Russia attacking Israel in the Battle of Armageddon."

Probably. This is a pretty big event. No doubt there will be far reaching repercussions.

[TigersEye]

Hmmm...wonder if the Russians have any money-back guarantees?

Read the small print, Achmed.

The above warranty does not apply in cases of lapsed maintenance, acts of war, during sand storms, south of the 45th parallel or operation by monkeyheads.

[Lady Heron]

So much for the Russophile wankers who claim the bear is now a force to be reckoned with

Unless their long range nukes and their subs are on par with this air defense system, then yes they are still a force whose ingrained dislike of America and world maneuvering should be taken seriously and watched closely.

[Salem]

"[Massive rush in Syria and Iran to change drawers]"

LOL!!   I don't know if you saw the movie "300" yet, but there is a scene where Xerxes comes unglued after the Spartans thump his guys again, so has one of his commanders beheaded.

Reminds me of that.

[Paul Ross]

My guess... we stood off the Syrian coast with F-117s

Those have been just retired.

(and maybe F-22s) before the raid.

Well, certainly possible that, and I should also note that B-2s are also available. Plus, some of the newer F-18s have been retrofitted with an analogous radar system as the F-22 (to call it a radar system is really wholly inadequate...it is now also our primary Electronic weapons platform). It allows many deceptions to be played on the enemies sensors. It can insert virus packages. It can take over their systems. It can simply send false or phantom reads, and completely conceal the actual source. It's capabilities are profound. No reason to advertise them too much, but suffice it to say, I just hope we can keep these systems out of the clutches of the Red Chinese.

A few minutes later, without warning, the Syrians’ vaunted air-defense network sites began mysteriously blowing up, one site at a time. Once the bad guys’ AAD network was blown to pieces by JDAMs launched from our stealth platforms outside of Syrian airspace, the IAF strike team flew through the gaping hole in their coverage and struck the target.

That is simply the easy way.

(Egress was over “friendly” territory — Turkey — to avoid any AAD we kight have missed.)

Don't know if that would actually be "friendly" ...they didn't let us tranship or overfly during the Iraq war for example...and they are notably ruled by an increasingly theocratic anti-secular Islamic lately...

[nuconvert]

“it should be remembered that Syrian defenses *did* light up. They just didn’t hit anything”

Thanks for that clarification.
How do we know that?

[Salem]

"I hope you got permission from Dr. Wheeler to post this article."

No. The article came through my regular mail, and I found the original through Google. The page is not password protected, nor written with a redirect to a login page, like Janes or STRATFOR do. Unrestricted, therefore, it is available to the Internet community.

If this posting is a problem and the free exposure unwanted, Mr. Wheeler or his organization can contact Jim Robinson or the Moderators and have his site added to the Updated FR Excerpt and Link Only or Deny Posting List due to Copyright Complaints for future FR reference.

[uglybiker]

Old Nike sites are all around this town, and they are empty.

You mean...all the shoe stores closed down? ;-)

[Syncro]

...there is also the curious question of “has anyone seen Assad lately?”

He's under Pelosi's skirt. Or that Burka she wore on her head when She Went Over and sat on his lap.

[shield]

Most all his articles are password protected...some aren't. Strange...this article is password protected.

http://www.tothepointnews.com

[DejaJude]

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

Wonder if Russia just wanted to see if Israel could figure out a way to get past it. Or possibly they get paid twice. Once from Syria for the systems and then by Israel for the key to getting past it.