Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[reagan_fanatic]

The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within

No such thing will happen. The mullahs are far too deeply entrenched within the military for any such thing to occur.

The best hope is another Iranian revolution, but chances of that look pretty slim as well.

[Blogger]

Yes, but one wouldn’t expect the Russian defenses to be THAT bad. I’m wondering if we were meant to think that they are really that bad. What is the stealth capability of the planes that the Israelis were flying? Shouldn’t SOMEONE in all of Syria spotted them either coming in or out?

[Salem]

"That be funny if Vlady gave them Soviet era planes LOL!"

See post 50.  

[Moonman62]

I’m thinking stealth aircraft were involved one way or another.

[tcrlaf]

Great ideas, but NOT POSSIBLE with a largely Gay media whose only agenda is destruction of Bush/Rightists and Christians for the Advancement of “Gay Civil Rights”....

[lormand]

This is also bad for the Russians too.

[ryan71]

No detection, at all? No shots fired?

Maybe our F-22’s carried out his strike?

Maybe the Israelis were never there?

Maybe this strike was let the Syrians and Iranians know they’re screwed.

[Salem]

"Yes, but one wouldn’t expect the Russian defenses to be THAT bad...."

I dunno. I do know that the United States military and the Israeli Defense Forces have capabilities we probably can't imagine—or that our enemies can't imagine. Oh, there's some FReepers around here that will allude to some technical things, but the bottom line is there is a lot of smart people in our military whose only goal is to overcome whatever is thrown at them. I think they are doing pretty good!  

[Stayfree]

Bush says, "I will not comment on that matter"
Maybe we did it and the Israelis sneaked in to gather the evidence so we can start telling Syria's @sshead and Iran's Nutjob what we found and what will happen to any other site that has the same stuff. Meanwhile, we start seizing assets outside of Iran belonging to the Iranian Republican Guard and its leadership.
CHECKMATE!

[JZelle]

“Ahmadinejad isn’t back home, he is visiting with our good buddy Chavez. Oh to be a fly on the wall.”

Especially if Spacey’s still there!

[Stayfree]

Any predictions about when the private jets start leaving Iran for Switzerland...

[txhurl]

I'd missed this, it's in the dozens killed Jul 26 thread:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iJugIQvDKwkxupz9eULk1ml6OZ4Q

The article also quoted Syrian opposition sources as noting that vehicles destined for car bomb attacks in Iraq are prepared at the same facility under the supervision of Syrian intelligence and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

[Wills Powers]

You should have seen the look on President Bush’s face when he was asked about this at the last news conference at the white house (last week).

President Bush usually looks serious-—but when asked about this he looked DEATHLY serious. Somethings up!

Do a YouTube search of “Iranian Air Defenses” and be prepared to laugh like hell.

[ryan71]

“I’m thinking stealth aircraft were involved one way or another.”

Me too. NO warning?

By claiming this was carried out by the Israeli’s, the extent of our F-22’s capabilities remains a mystery to the rest of the world and it appears F-15’s and F-16’s are still highly effective against the “best” SAM’s.

Of course, if the Israeli’s really did this I would not be surprised.

[Earthdweller]

You forgot one....Let them hear the scratching of the Raven.

[pabianice]

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses rules! Glad to see Israel got serious after last summer's clusterf*** with the Palis.

[LilyBean]

Yes. It is always a bonus when homeland traitors are there. Hell, he didn’t even have to go to SA to find them. He could have just stayed in NYC. The USA is chalk full of them. They can’t agree with this madman fast enough. Sickening.

Their day will come. I can hear the crying now. It is the only high point in a world which is spinning out of control. Be careful what you wish for comes to mind. The grass always looks greener on the Islam side of the fence? Hell I don’t know. I just know the whole damn world is going nuts. The West has a big bullseye target on its forehead and no one seems to notice, or care.

What the hell is going on? What are all of our political leaders doing? They sit back and do nothing. They let illegals poor over the borders. What the hell is wrong with them? They let leaders of countries who they suspect of killing our soldiers in Iraq, come into our country. They speak freely at a University. They speak freely about the Evil west at the UN. What the hell is going on? Why is this allowed?

Do our soldiers mean so little, that those who kill them are allowed into the US to spew their garbage?

This is just wrong.

[Soliton]

"Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.

I think it was American stealth planes from Iraq (which is VERY close to the bombing site) that conducted the raid. Israeli specials forces placed the dropped fuel tank in Turkey to mess with their heads. Israel's F15I's with external weapons and auxiliary fuel tanks would look HUGE on radar.

[kittymyrib]

“The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap. Isaiah 17:1”

I had to think of this when the dark dwarf was spouting the cursed Koran yesterday at the UN. There are prophecies in God’s Holy Bible that will come true, and they are certainly not the predictions of “peace and harmony” under Islam that he was quoting.

[Minutemen]

Takes a lot of time to splice up some video clips from the cave to “prove” fearless-leader is alive and well.