Threat Matrix: September 2007

The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

	Lebanon: Tiny Country, Big Threats
	Islamist Web Site Explains 'How to Join Al Qaeda'
	The Ongoing Hunt for Osama bin Laden

Threat Matrix:
September 2007

August 2007

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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=germany

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1895738/posts

“Inspired by the Nazis”
Townhall.com ^ | September 13, 2007 | Suzanne Fields

Posted on 09/13/2007 3:39:17 AM PDT by Kaslin

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “A few days before the sixth anniversary of 9/11, a young man ranting in Arabic accosted a rabbi walking home from his synagogue in an upscale neighborhood of Frankfurt, and stabbed him. As he shoved the blade of his pocketknife into the rabbi’s stomach, he switched from Arabic to German and told the man: “You sh—— Jew, I’m going to kill you.” The rabbi survived, and Jewish leaders in Germany were outraged and condemned the barbarism, but moderated their criticism.

“We oppose leveling blanket accusations at the Muslim community because the majority of Muslims in Germany condemn acts of violence in the name of Islam,” Dieter Graumann, the vice president of the German Jewish Council, said. But he observed that Islamist hate preachers regularly exhort young Muslims to carry out jihad against Jews, and asked why so few leaders of the Islamic community in Germany speak out against violence in the name of Mohammed.

This attack on the rabbi coincided with a visit to Washington by my daughter’s family from Berlin. They brought rave reviews of Germany’s largest synagogue, just now reopened in their neighborhood of Prenzlauer Berg in East Berlin. The Nazis set the synagogue afire on Kristallnacht and, adding insult to injury, used the ruined synagogue as a stable for horses. The renovation is hailed as a symbol of regeneration and revival of German Jewish life annihilated by the Holocaust. Like all synagogues in Germany, 24-hour police protection is required to prevent violence from Neo-Nazis and Islamist terrorists.

While the Germans have made enormous efforts to atone for the Holocaust, the attempted murder of the rabbi invites attention to a contemporary problem. Radical Islamists who go undercover in Germany fuse anti-Semitism with hatred for America, and the antecedents of this hatred are rooted in the Germany of Adolf Hitler.”

NOTE: The following text is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1895741/posts

Journalist warns of Muslim backlash over ‘delayed’ visa (Australia)
The Australian ^ | September 13, 2007 | Michael McKenna

Posted on 09/13/2007 3:48:03 AM PDT by Dundee

A PALESTINIAN journalist has warned of a Muslim backlash over the failure of Australian authorities to grant him a visa in time to speak at today’s Brisbane Writers Festival.

Abdel Bari-Atwan, a best-selling author and among the last Western journalists to interview Osama bin Laden, was cancelled as a speaker at the festival yesterday as he waited for his visa application to be processed.

Atwan, author of The Secret History of al-Qa’ida, accused the Howard Government of discrimination in delaying approval for his visa application, submitted on August 16, after giving notice to authorities of his intention to visit Australia.

“I believe this is a deliberate delay because I am an Arab and a Muslim,” Atwan said. “It is ridiculous. I am not a terrorist, I am not a drug dealer, I am dealing in words and thoughts.”

Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews denied any delay. “His application is currently being assessed and is subject to normal visa processing requirements,” he said in a statement. Mr Andrews’ spokeswoman later conceded that Atwan’s 1996 interview with bin Laden in Afghanistan would be “a matter for security agencies” in processing his application.

“This is not an unusual amount of time for the processing of a visa. He is in queue just like everyone else,” she said...

He said his visa problems would air throughout the Muslim world. “This could, in fact, incite trouble for Australia because there are a billion-and-a-half Muslims over the world and this will be publicised among those people,” he said. “They are not serving the Australian peoples’ interests, they are not serving Australian security, they are actually doing the opposite.”...

(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_2918.html

Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520

This information is current as of today, Thu Sep 13 2007 04:08:57 GMT-0700.

TIMOR-LESTE

September 12, 2007

This Travel Warning is being updated to inform Americans of continued potential for violence in Timor-Leste (formerly known as East Timor) and to warn American citizens to defer travel to Timor-Leste at this time. Americans currently in Timor-Leste should evaluate carefully their safety and security situation in light of this Travel Warning. This supersedes the Travel Warning issued on May 11, 2007.

The Department of State advises U.S. citizens of the continuing potential for violent civil unrest in Timor-Leste. U.S. citizens should defer travel to Timor-Leste at this time. Those already in Timor-Leste should exercise extreme caution and maintain a high level of security awareness while moving about in Dili; be alert to the potential for violence; and avoid demonstrations, large gatherings, and areas where disturbances have occurred. Demonstrations can occur at or near symbols and institutions of the Government of Timor-Leste, including government buildings and houses belonging to prominent politicians. Even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence.

Since April 2006, Timor-Leste has experienced outbreaks of politically-related civil unrest, and the risk of further violent unrest continues. Although parliamentary elections were held in a largely peaceful atmosphere in June, violent disturbances broke out in several areas of Dili and in the Eastern districts of Baucau and Viqueque after the President’s August 6, 2007, announcement of the new government. A UN convoy traveling from Baucau to Viqueque was ambushed by rock throwers. Private, diplomatic, and UN vehicles also have been pelted with rocks throughout Dili. Areas affected included Dili’s international airport and its surroundings, disrupting access to and from the airport. Violence has occurred in the areas around internally displaced persons camps near the Comoro market and Bairo Pite, and could erupt again without warning. American citizens passing through these areas should exercise caution. Americans remaining in Timor-Leste despite this warning should monitor the media for updates on the safety and security situation, and check the status of flights before traveling to the airport.

After the collapse of civil order in April and May 2006, international troops and police arrived. The security situation improved, but serious security concerns remain:

Indiscriminate communal violence continues throughout the country. Gang-related violence occurs often in Dili, and Americans risk intentional or inadvertent injury. Stone-throwing attacks on vehicles are frequent, and have affected American citizens on several occasions.

Several areas of Dili have become sites of chronic security incidents, particularly around the camps for internally displaced persons. Americans are advised to avoid these areas and check with the U.S. Embassy regarding other areas of concern.

Sexual assaults against foreign nationals have occurred. Female travelers are advised to exercise particular caution and to avoid travel alone on foot or in taxis, especially at night and in unfamiliar or isolated areas.

Criminal violence remains a problem. Criminals continue to operate illegal checkpoints in some areas of Dili, frequently stopping taxis and minibuses to extort money from drivers and passengers.In some cases, Timorese are identified for more violent targeting. American citizens are advised against using taxis or minibuses for transportation.

The Government of Australia has advised its citizens against travel to East Timor, and warns that Australians and Australian interests may be specifically targeted. Attackers could indiscriminately target foreigners, including Americans. The Australian travel advice can be viewed at http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-cgi/view/Advice/East_Timor .

Americans in Timor-Leste should immediately register at the U.S. Embassy and obtain all recent messages sent to the American community in Timor-Leste. The U.S. Embassy in Dili can be reached at 670-332-4684 between the hours of 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. local time or the duty officer outside business hours at 670-723-0949. The U.S. Embassy is located on Avenida de Portugal in the Pantai Kelapa area. U.S. citizens living in or traveling to Timor-Leste can also register through the State Department’s travel registration website, https://travelregistration.state.gov.

For the latest security information, Americans living and traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs Internet web site at http://travel.state.gov/, where the current Worldwide Cautions, Public Announcements, and Travel Warnings can be found. Travelers should also consult the Department of State’s latest Consular information Sheet for Timor-Leste. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States and Canada. Callers outside of the United States and Canada may call a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except on U.S. federal holidays)

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13968&Itemid=21

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
RELEASE No. 20070913-01
September 13, 2007

Taji terrorist safe house destroyed, 12 suspected insurgents detained

Multi-National Corps – Iraq PAO

FALLUJAH – Iraqi Army Scouts, with U.S. Special Operations Forces as advisers, conducted an intelligence driven helicopter assault raid Sept. 12 resulting in the detention of 12 suspected insurgents and the destruction of an explosively-rigged structure.

Assault forces conducted a series of raids in the vicinity of Taji and detained ten targeted individuals and two additional persons of interest. While securing one of the objectives, an assault team discovered a command detonation wire leading from an abandoned structure and the area was immediately evacuated.

After ensuring full accountability of all forces and ensuring no civilians were located within the vicinity of the structure, close air support was called in to destroy the target with four laser-guided bombs.

The targeted individuals are purportedly linked to the Lions of Islam Martyr Group and are suspected of improvised explosive device trafficking, facilitating foreign fighters and conducting murder and intimidation campaigns in the region.

No Iraqi or U.S. Forces were injured during the operation.

-30-

Know what I find very interesting about this? They are carefully parsing the language. Political CYA at it's best (and worst). They are carefully distinguishing between arresting illegal aliens who are directly connected not only with a terrorist organization, but perhaps actually connected to an ongoing plot. Of course the interdiction rates for that narrow class is going to be much smaller.

I want to know how many foreigners who are merely citizens of threat nations have been intercepted? How many Syrians, Iranians, Iraqis, Saudis, Egyptians, Libyans, Somalis, etc have been caught? Take that number and figure it represents about 10%. That's the stat generated by the Border Patrol right after 911. They figured they were intercepting about 10% of those crossing the border daily. Of that number 10% were from countries considered to present a terrorist threat to this nation. Now, figure the numbers that are brought in for a substantial fee in by professional so called "coyote" smugglers. These groups have strong ties to formal "established" organized crime groups and newer upstart violent gangs like MS13.

Folks, how many illegals who cross the border and pay a coyote $50K are doing such so that they can come to the land of milk and honey and work in a 7-11? Based on the Border Patrols own figures (this was relayed to me by a Congressional Staffer -- so I don't have a link) there is the potential for about 70,000 terrorists to be lurking inside our borders right now.

Of course, not ALL of them are going to be actual terrorists sent by Hamas, Hezbollah or AQ. But a healthy chunk will be. They may have designated targets and be formed as cells. Each cell will have a certain number of "Operators" who will execute the mission. The other parts of the cell will be logistics, financial and security folks. Figure the size of a cell formally schooled in "tradecraft" will be about 10 folks, at the most. Of course for security, no cell will have any details on the existence of any other cells.

There may be large numbers lone gunmen who won't have a designated target but may be waiting for a unique "GO CODE" to take out targets of opportunity.

We're fighting the war on terror overseas. It was really begun here at home on Sept 11th 2001. It has yet to move into a phase of extended operations here on home soil. But that is coming. Sure as shootin.' I'm afraid that Americans are going to see the face of war up close and personal. The way the Israelis and the British have seen it for many decades. When our time of reckoning comes, we'll see if we've become a nation of sheep herded by our DEMOCRAT Shepherds or Sheepdogs who act on their own initiative to stop the wolves as the sheep bleat in fear.

On about the time of the Bali bombings, my fellow spooks in the Company were debating an interesting article we found, right here on FR (and forgive me, I can never find the link).

It discussed a developing practice of AQ at the time. Individual operatives would venture into Gulf States - Qatar, the Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait - with a wad of laundered cash and trainign manuals. Their orders were “go forth and multiply”. The result? Home-grown AQ cells, intimately familiar with the local customs and countryside, indistinguishable from immigrants or infiltrators.

That was 2002. They’ve had five easy years to plant the seeds.

AQ is constantly testing, stressing and probing. They evaluate our reactions with each scenario. They will sit and watch a road for days, learning the traffic patterns. They will observe routines, looking for patterns. And the sheep are nothing if not creatures of habit.

They have noted our reactions to Sudden Jihad Syndrome events, like the DC Sniper, the mall shooting in Utah, the pipe bomb at LAX, the Flying Imams, the Fort Dix Pizza Dudes, and how many others. They watch. And they wait.

And every mosque is a safe haven. We’ve legislated them so.

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