Excellent news. Sarkozy should take Royal in the 2nd round.
Alrighty!
Good news.
Sarko: 29.6%
Royal: 25.1%
Bayou 18.7%
Le Pen: 11.5%
Looks very good for Sarko. I don’t think the Le Penist’s will stay home rather than vote for him.
One can count 5 points which Bayrou took from Royal (Socialists who voted for him because they couldn’t stand her - the Hillary effect), and the rest should go for Sarko.
The other minor parties right/left are pretty much split 50/50.
So what does this all mean... Salozky is a conservative?
Interesting news:
The Greens have dropped from 1.5 million votes in 2002 to 500,000 this year.
The communists dropped from 1.8 to 1.1 million.
This despite the fact that the total turnout this year is 30% higher than in 2002.
How high would his numbers have to be to avoid a run-off?
So, to whom is Bayrou likely to through his support?
I keep cracking up every time Fox refers to the woman as a
‘Socialist’ and the ‘Hillary Clinton’ of France.
An IPSOS poll taken right after this first round indicated that in the final (May 6) round the result will be: Sarkozy 54% and Royal 46%.
Sarkozy who was raised by his grandfather has said that his grandfather told him: “With a name like Sarkozy (Hungarian), you will never get anywhere in French politics. You should consider emigrating to America.” It looks like his grandfather was wrong.
Sarkozy + Le Pen = 42% (assuming all Le Pen votes go to Sarkozy). Royal + the far-left = 36%.
The Bayrou vote reallocation is critical; Royal has to get the bulk of it to win. That is unpredictable as he is a libertarian; they may want Sarkozy on economic policies but Royal on social and foreign policies...
Not all of Le Pen’s votes will go Sarko. Although certainly more will vote Sarko than Royal, I suspect many will choose to abstain.
The election rests on Bayrou’s voters. Bayrou is a curious dude - it remains to be seen who he decides to endorse if anyone.
Results on France 2 website from first round presidential election.
Sarkozy: 31.01 %
Royal: 25.64 %
Bayrou 18.54 %
LePen 10.63 %
Besancenot 4.15 %
Results based on 94.46 % of vote counted.
http://elections.france2.fr/presidentielles/2007/premier-tour/
The rioters “scum” are already to threatening do it again if Sarko wins.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1690098.ece
Germany liberated, and this time France. Let’s hope Italy and Spain will be next. It’s fun to see leftist government fall.
MAINSTREAM CANDIDATES:
Nicholas Sarkozy, Reagan Republican (in French terms, Union pour la mouvement populaire), 31.09%
Segolene Royal, Pelosi Democrat (Socialist), 25.78%
Francois Bayrou, Bloomberg Republican (Union pour la Democratie Francaise), 18.53%
REDS AND GREENS:
Olivier Bescanscot, 4.12% (Trotskyite)
Marie-George Buffet, 1.94% (Bolshevik)
Gerard Schivardi, 0.34% (Trotskyite)
Arlette Laguiler, 1.34% (Trotskyite)
Dominique Voynet, 1.57% (Green)
TOTAL: 7.31%
TRADITIONALIST AND NATIONALIST:
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Buchananite (Front National), 10.55%
Jose Bove, Perotist, anti-E.U., 1.32%
Frederic Nihaus, conservationist/traditionalist, 1.17%
Phillipe DeVillier, (Think Constitutional Party) Catholic traditionalist, 2.25%
Total: 15.3%
Presumably, Royal will gain the communists, for a base of about 33%. Sarkozy will pick up DeViller’s and Nihaus’ for a base of 35%. My presumption is Sarkozy also picks up more of Le Pen’s (although Le Pen is a leftist in many ways, and very nationalistic, while Sarkozy is considered a foreigner), and Bayrou’s (although Bayrou is considerably left of Sarkozy, and may have picked up many socialists who were uncomfortable with Royal’s purposely conspicuous shows of patriotism.)