So, to whom is Bayrou likely to through his support?
Bayrou will support Sarkozy. Bayrou is basically a Chirac do-nothing clone who saw an opportunity to pull Socialist supporters away from Royal (Hate Hillery Factor). Those Socialists will return to Royal rather than vote Sarkozy (roughly 5 of Bayrou’s 18% total according to one talking head). The rest will vote Sarkozy or stay home.
Another interesting tidbit: Sarkozy’s total translates into more than 11 million votes. More than ANY candidate has ever gotten in the first round in the history of the 5th Republic. A LOT of people want change.