French Presidential Election First Round Results [PLEASE POST UPDATES HERE]

La Chaine Info (LCI) - France ^ | 04/22/2007 | La Chaine Info - France

[Philistone]

First official results in French first round presidential elections (my translation from the live feed):

Estimation from SOFRES (French pollsters).

Sarkozy: 30% Royal: 25.2 % ------------- Bayrou: 18.3% Le Pen: 11.5%

[July 4th]

Excellent news. Sarkozy should take Royal in the 2nd round.

[sageb1]

Alrighty!

[RockinRight]

Good news.

[LdSentinal]

IPSOS Exit Poll

Sarko: 29.6%
Royal: 25.1%
Bayou 18.7%
Le Pen: 11.5%

[Philistone]

Looks very good for Sarko. I don’t think the Le Penist’s will stay home rather than vote for him.

One can count 5 points which Bayrou took from Royal (Socialists who voted for him because they couldn’t stand her - the Hillary effect), and the rest should go for Sarko.

The other minor parties right/left are pretty much split 50/50.

[CFC__VRWC]

Given the exit polling here in America, and given how the media has shamelessly shilled for Royal, I’s expect Sarkozy’s real numbers to be higher still.

[July 4th]

FYI, France24 has live video in English.

http://www.france24.com/

[Philistone]

Thanks. I tried that, but couldn’t get through.

Thanks for posting that for the others though. Maybe they’ll have more luck.

[Porterville]

So what does this all mean... Salozky is a conservative?

[Philistone]

Interesting news:

The Greens have dropped from 1.5 million votes in 2002 to 500,000 this year.

The communists dropped from 1.8 to 1.1 million.

This despite the fact that the total turnout this year is 30% higher than in 2002.

[ChicagoHebrew]

Given the exit polling here in America, and given how the media has shamelessly shilled for Royal, I’s expect Sarkozy’s real numbers to be higher still.

I don't. In France there is the hidden Le Pen effect. Every election, Le Pen outperforms polls -- probably b/c many people are embarrassed to tell pollsters they voted for him. 3-4% of Sarko's polling numbers are really cowardly Le Pen voters.

[Philistone]

Sarkozy is as conservative (and pro-American) as you can possibly be in France if you hope to get elected.

[Piranha]

How high would his numbers have to be to avoid a run-off?

[muir_redwoods]

So, to whom is Bayrou likely to through his support?

[Stultis]

... Salozky is a conservative?

Yes. And better yet, at least relatively speaking, far more of an American style (classically liberal) conservative (i.e. pro-growth, pro-individual liberty and empowerment) than a continental style conservative (illiberal/reactionary/aristocratic, triangulating with the intelligentsia instead of the people and productive classes) a la Chirac. (Yes. Chirac is what traditionally passes for a "conservative" in France.)

[ClaireSolt]

Just goes to show that Hillary is right. NOT! We need BJ as ambassador to the world. sarc/

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Europe pinglist.

[Stultis]

How high would his numbers have to be to avoid a run-off?

>50%

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Sarkozy’s pretty decent—for a French politician. He’s more pro-American than many of the previous French presidents.