Posted on 04/22/2007 10:02:03 AM PDT by Cincinna
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist Segolene Royal are set to contest a French presidential run-off after topping the first-round poll on Sunday, Belgium's Belga news agency said.
Belga quoted first projections which cannot be published in France by law until the last polling stations close at 1800 GMT (7 p.m. British time) as showing Sarkozy and Royal would go through.
Belgium's RTBF radio station said Sarkozy was slightly ahead in the first round.
(Excerpt) Read more at uk.reuters.com ...
“Who cares about Turkey, the sick eunuch of Europe?”
Everybody in Europe who does not want to have the whole Muslim Middle East drain into Europe the instant Turkey is admitted and Turkish people are all entitled to the open borders immigration and working rights which is part of the Acquis Communautaire.
Turkish admission means that Muslims get to do in Europe what Mexicans get to do in America: flood over the borders, except that in America, at least, it it putatively illegal. In the EU, it will be perfectly legal. Of course George W. Bush never saw a cheap immigrant laborer he didn’t like, and doesn’t give a rat’s ass about cultural and crime issues, which is why he is proposing the same moronic policy for Europe regarding Turkey as he himself has imposed, by non-enforcement of the immigration law, on America. Bush is the Jacques Chirac of America. And it is just as inexplicable why American conservatives continue to love his palsied leadership as it was that French conservatives continued to have great affection for Chirac, in spite of his obvious incompetence. Fortunately France will be getting rid of Chirac soon. But no, France is not going to follow Bush’s idiot suggestion on Turkey. The man has no clue what he is talking about. No, France does not want to be overrun by Turks the same way that Bush has let America be overrun by Mexico. George, just shut up and tend to your own borders.
From the article: “Mr. Sarkozy’s admiration and knowledge of the United States appear confined to its economic growth rate. He opposes Turkish membership in the European Union in the most intolerant terms: “If you let 100 million Turkish Muslims come in, what will come of it?” And his Gaullism is tainted by a weakness for rightist catchwords — “nation” and “identity,” not to mention “scum” when referring to rioting minority youths — with which he hopes to outflank Mr. Le Pen...”
Which proves that Mr. Sarkozy is a wise man indeed. However, he had best not use his 100 Days to try and impose American-style labor law, or the resultant general strike and loss of Parliament will be the end of his effectiveness as President before he even starts. We shall see if he is wise enough to restrain himself on the labor law issue. If not: Boom! All over.
“Although le Pen is rumored to be coming out for Royal in the runoff. He will announce his choice on May 1.
Endorsing a Socialist? I don’t get it.”
I do not believe it for a second.
He is merely holding Sarkozy’s feet to the fire over proportional representation.
“In addition, I don’t think we can count on LePen endorsing Sarko.”
You can’t count on it. Sarkozy will have to deliver on the promise of proportional representation, then Le Pen will endorse him. It is the auction right now. If Royal offers proportional represenation and Sarkozy does not, the FN could go for Royal for strategic reasons.
I wonder how President Sarkozy will get along with President Clinton or President Edwards? ;-)
First man to surrender wins....
“I guess the question is, where is the socialist base??”
It is not geographical (other than in Seine-St. Denis, the immigrant banlieu northeast of Paris, and in some of the DOM/TOM; although Guadeloupe went heavily for Sarkozy), it is social-class based.
You are correct about the Southwest. Royal did not do measurably better there. Rather, Bayrou the farmer, did better there, and the UDF is center right, so this edged down Sarkozy’s base.
The social classes tend to be evenly-spread in the urban areas, with there being more workers, unemployed, immigrants and lower functionaries who would tend socialist. However, there is a sharp distinction between the former and the last group, because the last group tend to be victimized by crime, which pushes them back to the right (think Reagan Democrats). Farmers like agricultural subsidies, but those are coming from the EU no matter who is in office; farm labor likes protections, but they don’t like immigrant labor competition. Also, rural areas are Catholic and have larger families, which tends to orient them towards the more conservative right. Everywhere, then, there are socialists and capitalists, probably more of the former than the latter, and if there were no crime and security issues, socialists would generally do better.
If you’re looking for a geographic base, it will be difficult to find it in France outside of Seine-St. Denis which is certainly socialist, and the chateaux country, which is certainly rightist.
Just as the Dems try to scare the old and demagog the issue of SS, so will Sego on France's generous social welfare system. She has the Left tied up, but now she must appeal to the middle. One way is to scare people about your opponent, true or not.
If Sarkozy is a damned fool he will try to cut away worker protections during his 100 Days, which will provoke a general strike, hand Parliament to the Socialists in July, and end his Presidency before it begins. He’s not going to do that.
Of course not, anymore than a Rep President would on privatizing SS. It is the seriousness of the charge and not whether he will do something or not. Moreover, Parliament would have to support such a change. And that is very unlikely.
When I say “people” I do not refer to every college child in a Paris cafe. I mean the majority of thinking adults. I don’t think Sarkozy is going to have nearly as tough a time as you do.
I have said that I think he will win, but that it is going to be close. Sarkozy has his own baggage and the Socialists and their ideas are still a major force in the country. By our standards, both of them are flaming liberals.
I think law and order is on the mind of many. My fear is that Sarkozy will win on law and order but then implement the two worst parts of his program at once: Affirmative Action and trying to chop down worker protections.
Sego is trying to latch on to the law and order issue as well. Her slogan is, "We need a just order." Sarko's is "We need justice and order." Both parties understand the importance of the issue in the public's mind. Sego will try to paint Sarko as another LePen on this issue, which would not be helpful to Sarko if that connection is made. Sarko is trying to be a "law and order" type, but also be sensitive to minorities. It is a balancing act. Sarko's categorical stance on Turkey's admittance to the EU, i.e., never, will play well with some and not with others. Sego is in favor, in time.
“I wonder how President Sarkozy will get along with President Clinton or President Edwards? ;-)”
Probably tolerably with Clinton. Probably not well with Edwards. Clinton is cautious, and will get herself fully briefed up before she ventures into the field. Edwards is a cocky lawyer who will think in terms of “I am the President of the USA and these Frenchies are going to knuckle under to me because I have the power”, and that will get him in trouble with Sarkozy (or any other French President).
I agree with what you wrote.
As to law and order, what really needs to happen is another riot, with the full flaming violence as in the past, and the lines of rock-throwers at the police and then, when the Molotov cocktails are thrown, the police need to be given the order to open fire with live rounds, the Napoleonic “whiff of grapeshot” that will kill hundreds of the front-line scum. THAT will set in a panic in the racaille that has not been seen in France for a century. And, provided that the film clips are there of some policemen in flames first, it will NOT bring down the government. In fact, watching the racaille flee in headlong rout leaving dozens or hundreds dead in the streets, pursued by the police, will actually embolden France. France will close ranks around the government if that happens, so long as the provocation is correct. The gangs are not going to be controlled by policy or gentle persuasion or economic bribes. They are going to have to be brought under control by violence, by killing some of them in a head-on collision with the police, which will panic the others. But it has to be CLEAR. The police have to stand there and be pelted with rocks and firebombs, and there has to be sufficient “Allahu akbar” being screamed, on camera, while it is going on. In short, it needs good choreography. And it must be caught on film: the long-suffering, ever patient police and the French state finally returning fire in the face of a raging Muslim rabble, and the camera has to film the flight of the rabble and the advance of France in the guise of the police. If it is choreographed properly, it will be the turning of the tide. Sarkozy has to provoke the incident with strong policies, and the camera crews have to catch it.
But I am perhaps too cynical.
The Clintons have both indicated that they would like to see Sego win. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Hillary would love to use the fact that both Germany and France are led by women and now it is time for the US to change.
Of course the left favors the left.
Nevertheless, if Sarkozy’s President, Clinton will work with him.
Bill, the “Ambassador at Large”, will probably spend most of his time on state visits to the Sultan of Brunei.
LOL. You mean she has a choice?
I appreciate your excellent commentary on the French political situation. It’s very helpful to us in the U.S. I also agree with your “whiff of grapeshot” theory.
Mega dittos on Go Sarko!
If vampires were real, they would be socialists......
(LOL)
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