Just as the Dems try to scare the old and demagog the issue of SS, so will Sego on France's generous social welfare system. She has the Left tied up, but now she must appeal to the middle. One way is to scare people about your opponent, true or not.
If Sarkozy is a damned fool he will try to cut away worker protections during his 100 Days, which will provoke a general strike, hand Parliament to the Socialists in July, and end his Presidency before it begins. He’s not going to do that.
Of course not, anymore than a Rep President would on privatizing SS. It is the seriousness of the charge and not whether he will do something or not. Moreover, Parliament would have to support such a change. And that is very unlikely.
When I say “people” I do not refer to every college child in a Paris cafe. I mean the majority of thinking adults. I don’t think Sarkozy is going to have nearly as tough a time as you do.
I have said that I think he will win, but that it is going to be close. Sarkozy has his own baggage and the Socialists and their ideas are still a major force in the country. By our standards, both of them are flaming liberals.
I think law and order is on the mind of many. My fear is that Sarkozy will win on law and order but then implement the two worst parts of his program at once: Affirmative Action and trying to chop down worker protections.
Sego is trying to latch on to the law and order issue as well. Her slogan is, "We need a just order." Sarko's is "We need justice and order." Both parties understand the importance of the issue in the public's mind. Sego will try to paint Sarko as another LePen on this issue, which would not be helpful to Sarko if that connection is made. Sarko is trying to be a "law and order" type, but also be sensitive to minorities. It is a balancing act. Sarko's categorical stance on Turkey's admittance to the EU, i.e., never, will play well with some and not with others. Sego is in favor, in time.
I agree with what you wrote.
As to law and order, what really needs to happen is another riot, with the full flaming violence as in the past, and the lines of rock-throwers at the police and then, when the Molotov cocktails are thrown, the police need to be given the order to open fire with live rounds, the Napoleonic “whiff of grapeshot” that will kill hundreds of the front-line scum. THAT will set in a panic in the racaille that has not been seen in France for a century. And, provided that the film clips are there of some policemen in flames first, it will NOT bring down the government. In fact, watching the racaille flee in headlong rout leaving dozens or hundreds dead in the streets, pursued by the police, will actually embolden France. France will close ranks around the government if that happens, so long as the provocation is correct. The gangs are not going to be controlled by policy or gentle persuasion or economic bribes. They are going to have to be brought under control by violence, by killing some of them in a head-on collision with the police, which will panic the others. But it has to be CLEAR. The police have to stand there and be pelted with rocks and firebombs, and there has to be sufficient “Allahu akbar” being screamed, on camera, while it is going on. In short, it needs good choreography. And it must be caught on film: the long-suffering, ever patient police and the French state finally returning fire in the face of a raging Muslim rabble, and the camera has to film the flight of the rabble and the advance of France in the guise of the police. If it is choreographed properly, it will be the turning of the tide. Sarkozy has to provoke the incident with strong policies, and the camera crews have to catch it.
But I am perhaps too cynical.